Florida State Would Have No Shot at Playoffs Without Jameis Winston

It became clear, somewhere smack-dab in the middle of the second half, just how valuable Jameis Winston is to Florida State.

Perhaps such value should have been recognized well before we got to witness this doomsday scenario. After all, Winston won a Heisman Trophy, and he did so posting video-game numbers as a redshirt freshman. In accomplishing these individual goals, his team also won a national championship.

Without him in 2013, the stakes and scenario would have been drastically different. And without him this year—as we witnessed with our own eyes Saturday night—Florida State's national title hopes are all but lost.

As the Seminoles closed out a suspenseful, ugly and mistake-aided 23-17 win in overtime over Clemson, Winston’s value was amplified. The quarterback will ultimately define just how close Florida State can come to duplicating last season’s success and cracking the first-ever College Football Playoff.

But given recent events, nothing should be assumed. 

Winston's situation is well-known by now, at least to a degree. He said vulgar things in a public setting, prompting the school to suspend him for a half. Late Friday night—when most of the football world was sound asleep, preparing for the day ahead—the university announced that Winston would miss the entire game. 

The late news has yet to truly be defined outside of a cryptic release. Regardless of why this punishment was doubled, it came as a surprise on the eve of one of the biggest ACC games all year. The loss was, unquestionably, significant.

And yet, even with the news, I expected to write a much different column once his absence became official. I expected to write about the Florida State defense and how it proved that the Seminoles were much more than just a QB. In some ways, this group did showcase that, although it was not without its moments of distress.

I expected to write about the best offensive line in the country and how it kept Clemson's feisty and aggressive front seven in check. Off that same talking point, it was assumed that the Seminoles’ array of intriguing skill position players would take control of this matchup and assert themselves in unique ways. These moments eventually came, although it was not the natural addition we assumed. Moving the football was by no means easy for much of the night.

And finally, I expected backup quarterback Sean Maguire to ease in slowly but steer this magnificent ship without taking it off course. I assumed there would be a drop-off of some kind—he was replacing a Heisman winner, after all—but Maguire, given the pieces around him, seemed poised to handle the moment just fine.

Although Maguire deserves the utmost credit for the adjustments (and improvements) he made in the second half after struggling, the differences were far greater than we could have imagined.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

His interception late in the fourth quarter could have—and perhaps should have—doomed the team and its playoff hopes. A Clemson fumble made the throw moot, however, and Maguire led his team to victory in overtime. 

All of this is good news. Style points, particularly for a team coming off a national championship, are by no means a requirement. A win is a win, and without Winston, this victory should be appreciated despite the rocky path that it took to get there.

But bigger picture, even on a night when FSU took out one of its main ACC rivals, we were reminded of just how much Florida State needs its quarterback. Without him—and with difficult games still on the horizon, including a matchup with surging Notre Dame—it will probably come undone.

Following the game, head coach Jimbo Fisher made it abundantly clear that Winston would be welcomed back next week with open arms. There was no reason to assume anything different, but again, recent events have not exactly followed this most linear path.

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Jimbo: Jameis will be our quarterback on Monday

— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) September 21, 2014"

If that is indeed the case—and twists moving forward are kept at a minimum—the Seminoles should be considered a national title contender, if not the favorite. There are reasons to be concerned with this team, some of which were on display Saturday night, although there’s also plenty to be excited about. And that begins with Winston. 

Although the severity of this punishment will continue to be discussed and debated, it makes no difference now. The hope is that Winston can learn from his latest off-field debacle, something he has been unable to do up until this point. 

If it was obvious for us Saturday night just how valuable he has become, hopefully he had a similar (and more impactful) takeaway while assessing it all from a much different, more impactful viewpoint. 

Bigger yet, hopefully one of the sport’s most exciting and exceptional talents can take the attention back toward his craft and away from the stupidity that put his team in this position in the first place. 

He’s losing out, we’re losing out and Florida State, as we saw Saturday night, will eventually lose out if its star player is absent any longer.