USC vs. Oregon State Complete Game Preview

WHEN: Saturday, Sept. 27, 10:30 p.m. ET 

WHERE: The Los Angeles Coliseum 

TV: ESPN 

Home-field advantage is sometimes overvalued, but not in the case of the USC vs. Oregon State series. The Trojans’ 31-14 win last season at Reser Stadium was the first time a road opponent won in the series since 2004, when USC beat the Beavers 28-20, en route to a national championship.

That ended a three-game losing skid for the Trojans in Corvallis, Oregon—which pales in comparison to the losing streak the Beavers are up against Saturday in the Coliseum.

Oregon State has not won there since 1960.

From a historical perspective, No. 18 USC could not have a better opponent waiting for the Trojans’ return home from a four-week layoff. But the Beavers come into Saturday's matchup with a history-making quarterback, Sean Mannion, and a 3-0 start. 

USC needs to bounce back after losing to Boston College its last time out, 37-31. The Trojans' return home could be the catalyst for them to regroup and get their season back on track in the form of a 2-0 Pac-12 Conference start.  

USC Keys to Victory

TONY AVELAR/Associated Press

Get the Run Going Early

Boston College successfully rendered the USC offense one-dimensional in Week 3, limiting the Trojans to 20 total rushing yards.

USC is most effective when it strikes a balance of the run and the pass, which is head coach Steve Sarkisian's weekly goal.

Though Sarkisian had not yet arrived, that balance was on display last year against Oregon State. The Trojans got 247 passing yards from quarterback Cody Kessler and 242 total rushing yards.

An effective rush sets up play action, which opens the field for crucial big plays. One such example against Oregon State a season ago came on Kessler’s bomb of 62 yards to wide receiver Nelson Agholor to start the second half.

Kessler threw for 317 yards at Boston College, but the impotence of the ground game limited him to just 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Compare that to Week 1, when he threw for a career-high 394 yards and averaged 10.6 yards per attempt.

It’s no coincidence that rushing for 277 total yards opened the field more to the passing attack. Establishing an effective run early is vital to that same end Saturday against Oregon State.

Pressure Sean Mannion

Mannion will throw—a lot. He’s attempted 31, 37 and 45 passes through the Beavers’ first three games and added 903 yards to his already-lofty career total.

USC effectively pressured him in last year’s encounter, but not with typical pressure from blitzes. Rather, the Trojans relied on three-man rushes with the linebackers and secondary shutting down the Beavers’ intermediate and deep routes.

Thus, the pressure was on Mannion to operate primarily through checkdowns and swing passes. Expect Justin Wilcox to use a similar strategy.

If defensive tackle Leonard Williams can operate with the same efficiency he demonstrated in Week 2, when he made 11 tackles against Stanford, USC can focus its pressure where it hurts Mannion most—on his receivers.

Oregon State Keys to Victory

TROY WAYRYNEN/Associated Press

Win in the Trenches

Line play was a problem for Oregon State a season ago—on both sides of the ball. The Beavers’ inability to stop opponents’ rushing attacks, while also failing to establish one of their own, was most evident during a five-game losing skid in Pac-12 play.

Included during that streak was the Beavers’ home loss to USC, in which the Trojans dominated up front. USC pounded out 5.5 yards per carry as a team while limiting Oregon State to 92 yards total.

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Who will win this weeks matchup? RT for #USC FAV for #OregonState #USCvsOSU pic.twitter.com/iDrp3NxAeD

— CFB Nation (@UofCFB) September 21, 2014"

Oregon State head coach Mike Riley hired offensive coordinator John Garrett in the offseason to reemphasize the Beavers’ rushing attack. Running backs Terron Ward and Storm Woods have combined for 435 yards on the ground through three games—approaching half of their 998 total rushing yards in 2013.

"They're a good duo together, and they both need to play," Riley said on last week's Pac-12 coaches conference call. "We'll continue to have good production from both of them as long as we keep them healthy." 

Establishing Ward and Woods early to open the field for Mannion is a must Saturday, and that starts with Oregon State’s offensive line opening holes for the ball-carriers.  

Likewise, the defensive line must continue the strides it’s made through the first month of the 2014 season. The Beavers have the nation’s No. 30-ranked rush defense through three games, allowing just 113 yards per contest.

Hit on the Home Run Plays

USC’s ability to limit Mannion to 6.2 yards per pass attempt last season was central to the Trojans’ romp. Oregon State's offense needs long gains, particularly on the pass, in order to thrive. 

All four of the Beavers' touchdowns in last week's 28-7 win over San Diego State came in the red zone, but big plays helped set them up. On the first via OSUBeavers.com, Mannion threw a 32-yard completion to Hunter Jarmon; on the second, Mannion hooked up with Rahmel Dockery for 49 yards and the third was set up by a 27-yard Mannion pass to Jarmon. 

USC Players to Watch

OFFENSE

RB Javorius “Buck” Allen

Javorius Allen was already installed into the starting lineup before USC visited Corvallis last November, but that night was when he truly emerged as a star.

Allen rushed for 133 yards on just 16 carries and scored three touchdowns. He surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark in each of USC’s first two games this season but was limited to 31 yards in the Trojans’ loss at Boston College.

He remained effective with 118 yards receiving, but Sarkisian said last week that ideally, he wants to use Allen less as a pass-catcher. The back’s bread is buttered as an every-down rusher. Reestablishing him in that role against the Beavers is crucial. 

OL Damien Mama

One of two true freshmen starting on the USC offensive line, guard Damien Mama has had to acclimate to the college game while also dealing with a knee injury. 

Sarkisian said last week that Mama was not yet at 100 percent. Offensive line issues were a contributing factor to USC's loss at Boston College, particularly the Trojans' inability to jump-start the run. 

An extra week of recovery should help Mama get closer to full speed in time for the return to conference action. 

DEFENSE

CB Chris Hawkins

Redshirt freshman Chris Hawkins impressed USC coaches from the outset of training camp, which proved vital to the secondary’s adjustment without redshirt senior Josh Shaw. Shaw is serving an indefinite suspension for lying about the circumstances of an ankle injury he sustained last month.

Hawkins transitioned into a prominent role rather seamlessly. Along with Kevon Seymour, he's locked down one of the primary cornerback roles and is coming off his first career interception. 

He'll get plenty of work Saturday against the pass-happy Oregon State offense. 

Oregon State Players to Watch

TROY WAYRYNEN/Associated Press

OFFENSE

QB Sean Mannion

Oregon State’s fourth-year starting quarterback Mannion set the Pac-12’s single-season passing record in 2013. He comes into Saturday’s contest with 11,339 career passing yards—third most in Pac-12 history.

Mannion has a pair of USC Trojans ahead of him on the all-time career yardage list: Carson Palmer (11,818 yards) and Matt Barkley (12,327). Barring injury, he should surpass both within the next few weeks.

TE Connor Hamlett

The Oregon State offense has featured superstar wide receivers going back more than decade: Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Mike Hass, James Rodgers, Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks all produced monster statistics in their time as Beavers.

With Cooks leaving for the NFL this past offseason, Riley was faced with a monumental task replacing his 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns of receiving production. Thus far, Oregon State's new pass-catching star is actually a tight end. 

Connor Hamlett has 11 receptions on the season, part of a more balanced attack the Beavers are employing under Garrett.

The tight end gives Oregon State size in the middle, but he isn't just used on intermediate routes. Hamlett's 15 yards per catch ranks second among Beavers with multiple receptions. 

DEFENSE

DE Obum Gwacham

Obum Gwacham has picked up the mantle NFL draftee and All-Pac-12 honoree Scott Crichton left. Gwacham is Oregon State's primary pass-rushing threat, boasting three sacks on the season. 

Gwacham will challenge a young USC offensive, which allowed five sacks its last time out.

LB Michael Doctor

The veteran leader of Oregon State's defense, Michael Doctor is a do-everything linebacker able to both bottle the rush and drop into pass coverage. 

Doctor is coming off a five-tackle performance against San Diego State that also included an interception. He is up for the Week 4 Lott IMPACT Trophy Player of the Week for his effort, via Gina Mizell of The Oregonian.  

What They're Saying

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USC

"I'm looking forward to it. It's a good chance for the [defensive backs] to get some pass deflections, some interceptions and if we can't get there in time, some tackles," cornerback Adoree' Jackson on facing Oregon State's high-volume passing attack.

"After every game, win or lose, I analyze myself first as the head coach and as the play-caller. ...Inevitably after every game...there's always five to 10 calls I say, if I did that again, I'd call that play different or I'd utilize that personnel grouping different here. ...Obviously, those things get magnified when you don't win," - Sarkisian on the challenges after a loss. 

Oregon State

"Not that it's ever what you want totally, but it sure is a better start this year than it was a year ago, rushing the ball...It's certainly not perfect, but it's obviously a lot better," - Riley on Oregon State's run game.

"What you have to discover as you go along is your identity and your way that you're going to find to win...The more you find out, the more the players figure out how the team is going to win, the more it's going to help you down the road," - Riley on the importance of starting 3-0 before Pac-12 play. 

"We're happy with three wins, that's for sure. But we know it's a week-to-week thing and we have to play good football every week. We got SC next and we just got to prepare for them," - Mannion after beating San Diego State, via Sean Meagher of The Oregonian.  

Prediction

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USC has not played a home game since Aug. 30 when it blasted Fresno State, 52-13. Home will probably never feel quite as sweet as Saturday when the Trojans return from two straight road games, a bye week and a loss. 

Look for the recharged Trojans to jump on Oregon State early. Overall, this is a better Beavers team than the one USC routed a season ago, so the visitors should be able to weather an early onslaught. 

However, USC should strike the balance in its offense it missed the previous two games and contain the Oregon State run game enough to win by two scores. 

Prediction: USC 34, Oregon State 24 

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. Statistics compiled courtesy of CFBstats.com unless otherwise noted.