College Football Picks: Week 5 Predictions for Every Game
Bring on the conference games.
Week 5 of the 2014 college football season gets us almost fully into conference play, as 36 of the 54 games scheduled between Thursday and Saturday are league tilts spread among the 10 FBS conferences. That includes 10 of the 18 games featuring teams currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 poll.
Conference games tend to be the most hard-fought contests because old rivalries are rekindled and postseason aspirations ride on their outcomes. Even with the massive realignment that has occurred in college football the past few years, the games against teams in one's league still take on the most importance.
Check out our predictions for every game this weekend, as well as our experts' picks (against the spread) for this week's top matchups, then give us your choices in the comments section.
Last week: 46-11 (.807)
Season record: 221-52 (.810)
Texas Tech at No. 24 Oklahoma State
1 of 54
When: Thursday, Sept. 25; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Desmond Roland ran for three touchdowns, while Clint Chelf threw two touchdown passes and ran for two more scores in a 52-34 Oklahoma State win at Texas Tech last November.
What to watch for
Texas Tech (2-1) comes into its Big 12 opener riding a five-game losing streak in league play, having allowed 48.6 points per game during that skid. The same defensive issues that plagued the Red Raiders last season have resurfaced in 2014, particularly in stopping the run. The team sits 125th in rushing defense at 295.7 yards allowed per game.
Oklahoma State (2-1) was one of those teams that ran all over Tech last year, but so far this season its offense hasn't been as explosive as the squad breaks in a load of new starters. The Cowboys are averaging 38 points per game, but the run game hasn't produced a 100-yard rusher yet. Desmond Roland only has 123 yards and has missed one outing due to injury.
Daxx Garman has played admirably in place of injured OK State quarterback J.W. Walsh, and with Walsh out indefinitely, it will be his play that dictates how the Cowboys move forward. It begins with a third straight win and a good start to Big 12 play.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, Texas Tech 23
Final: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 35
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern
2 of 54
When: Thursday, Sept. 25; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Kameron Bryant threw for 381 yards and had four total touchdowns in Appalachian State's 38-14 home win over Georgia Southern last October, when both teams were in the FCS Southern Conference.
What to watch for
Appalachian State (1-2) plays its first-ever Sun Belt Conference game against a familiar foe, the team alongside which it jumped into the FBS this season. The Mountaineers squandered a chance to head into the league on a high note when their game-tying extra point was blocked in the final seconds at Southern Miss, but improvement has been there since the opening loss at Michigan.
ASU averages 212 yards apiece through the air and on the ground.
Georgia Southern (2-2) isn't nearly as balanced, but its option run game is no less potent. The Eagles are rushing for 357 yards per game, the second most in FBS, with sophomore Matt Breida (445 yards, seven touchdowns) leading the charge. Quarterback Kevin Ellison has thrown for 500 yards and added another 327 on the ground, with five total scores.
The ground attack that led to last year's upset at Florida and has nearly produced wins at Georgia Tech and North Carolina State this season will get Georgia Southern off to a strong start in its new conference.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 40, Appalachian State 28
Final: Georgia Southern 34, Appalachian State 14
No. 11 UCLA at No. 15 Arizona State
3 of 54
When: Thursday, Sept. 25; 10 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Arizona State jumped out to a 35-13 halftime lead, then held on for a 38-33 win at UCLA last November, clinching the Pac-12 South Division title.
What to watch for
A game that will go a long way toward deciding the Pac-12 South could be without two of its biggest stars. Both teams are coming off byes during which they've been working out backup quarterbacks to step in for injured starters.
UCLA (3-0) hasn't come out with a firm status on Brett Hundley, who hurt his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the Sept. 13 win over Texas. Coach Jim Mora has been nothing short of cryptic about Hundley, telling Chris Foster of the Los Angeles Times that "we depend on our doctors to get us good information, and we got the best doctors in the nation in my opinion. If they clear him, and they say he can play, just like everyone else, then we’ll play him."
If Hundley can't go, then it may mean having to tap into backup Jerry Neuheisel's magic again. The son of former UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel threw two touchdown passes to spark the Bruins' rally at Texas, while running back Paul Perkins had his best game of the season after Hundley went down.
Arizona State (3-0) will not have quarterback Taylor Kelly available, as the senior is out with a foot injury suffered late in the Sept. 13 win at Colorado. The Sun Devils have turned to Mike Bercovici, who has thrown the ball only 24 times in three seasons. He won't have to do it alone thanks to the presence of running back D.J. Foster (510 rushing yards, five TDs) and receiver Jaelen Strong (19 catches, 266 yards, two TDs).
Hundley's presence will dictate who wins this game. We'll assume he gets in there, and with him back, UCLA will finally put together a complete game after three uneven performances. The Bruins will take this one late.
Prediction: UCLA 30, Arizona State 27
Final: UCLA 62, Arizona State 27
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Fresno State at New Mexico
4 of 54
When: Friday, Sept. 26; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Derek Carr threw for 522 yards and seven touchdowns in his final home game, leading Fresno State to a 69-28 win over New Mexico last November.
What to watch for
Fresno State (1-3) is dealing with the major growing pains that come with having to replace a guy like Derek Carr. The Bulldogs have settled on Brian Burrell at quarterback after he and Brandon Connette shared the duties for a while, but the offense is still slowly coming together. Even more of an issue is the defense, which is giving up 541 yards per game.
New Mexico (1-2) isn't much better on defense, allowing 524.7 yards per game, including 520 to New Mexico State last week. But the Lobos escaped with a 38-35 road win in that rivalry game, with their run game generating 432 yards. UNM averages 349.7 rushing yards per outing, third best in the FBS, helping atone for the use of four quarterbacks.
UNM will dictate the pace with its running attack, but it will still be a game in which points come early and often in this wild Mountain West opener.
Prediction: New Mexico 41, Fresno State 37
Final: Fresno State 35, New Mexico 24
Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion
5 of 54
When: Friday, Sept. 26; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
What to watch for
Middle Tennessee (2-2, 1-0 Conference USA) has been explosive at home but listless on the road, leading to its even record. The Blue Raiders are getting a lot of production from quarterback Austin Grammer (960 passing yards, 160 rushing yards, six total touchdowns), but none from many other players. Their defense is 104th nationally in yards allowed.
Old Dominion (3-1, 1-0) hosts its first-ever Conference USA game riding a huge wave of momentum, thanks to its 45-42 win at defending C-USA champ Rice. The Monarchs are in their second year of transitioning into the FBS, but they're a veteran team led by senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke has thrown for 1,172 yards and 10 TDs this season, and he has more than 12,000 yards for his career.
ODU can't officially win the C-USA this season, but that doesn't mean it can't control it early.
Prediction: Old Dominion 39, Middle Tennessee 25
Final: Middle Tennessee 41, Old Dominion 28
Iowa at Purdue
6 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Jordan Canzeri ran for 165 yards and a touchdown in Iowa's 38-14 win at Purdue last November in Big Ten play.
What to watch for
Iowa (3-1) rallied behind backup quarterback C.J. Beathard last week, and now the sophomore is prepared to start Saturday while Jake Rudock recovers from a few hard hits in the second half of the win at Pittsburgh. The Hawkeyes could use an offensive spark, as they are averaging only 22.3 points and 360.5 yards per game. The yardage figure ranks them 100th in FBS.
Purdue (2-2) is 103rd in total offense, at 351 yards per game, but is coming off its best rushing effort during a win over FCS Southern Illinois. The Boilermakers have made great strides on defense, sitting 62nd in total yards allowed (379.3) after being among the worst in the country last season.
Iowa seems to play up or down to the level of its competition, so expect a close game. But the Hawkeyes are by far the better team and will eke out a win in this Big Ten opener.
Prediction: Iowa 29, Purdue 21
Final: Iowa 24, Purdue 10
UTEP at No. 25 Kansas State
7 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Kansas State beat UTEP 40-7 in 1999.
What to watch for
UTEP (2-1) has been able to ride the running of sophomore Aaron Jones (546 yards, seven touchdowns) to as many wins as last season already. He ranks second in the FBS at 182 yards per game and has helped mask a passing game that's completed only 33 passes for 358 yards and two scores. The Miners nearly beat Texas Tech a few weeks ago, but they also haven't had to play in a hostile environment yet.
Kansas State (2-1) could have a perfect record if it could have avoided being its own worst enemy last time out. The Wildcats were masterful in slowing down Auburn's run game, but three turnovers and three missed field goals did them in. K-State hasn't been able to run the ball effectively itself, though, aside from when quarterback Jake Waters scrambles.
Mistakes this time out won't be as critical, since the Wildcats are the far superior team.
Prediction: Kansas State 41, UTEP 20
Final: Kansas State 58, UTEP 28
Wyoming at No. 9 Michigan State
8 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Michigan State beat Wyoming 34-16 in 1977.
What to watch for
Wyoming (3-1) has bought into new coach Craig Bohl's style of play, which so far has been a ball-control offense focused on keeping the score low. That's a great strategy to have and has worked against lesser opponents, but it only lasted for so long in a 48-14 loss at Oregon, which is how it may go against Michigan State.
Michigan State (2-1) got a lot of guys into the game last week in drubbing Eastern Michigan and has put more focus on being able to run the ball. The Spartans need to be balanced to be successful, but so far top tailback Jeremy Langford has managed only 203 yards on 46 carries.
MSU might be more susceptible to Wyoming's attempt to slow things down than others, but it will still end up winning comfortably.
Prediction: Michigan State 40, Wyoming 17
Final: Michigan State 56, Wyoming 14
Northwestern at Penn State
9 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Penn State scored 22 points in the final 10 minutes to pace a 39-28 home win over previously unbeaten Northwestern in October 2012, its sixth straight win over the Wildcats.
What to watch for
Northwestern (1-2) has had to go far down the depth chart at running back to find some effective runners, but a pair of freshmen might be the answer in Justin Jackson and Solomon Vault. That duo scored all three of the Wildcats' touchdowns last week against Western Illinois, but the passing game is still slogging along and is likely to hold them back in this Big Ten opener.
Penn State (4-0, 1-0) has struggled to run the ball as well, but sophomore quarterback Christian Hackenberg has been there to carry the offense. He's thrown for 1,261 yards but only four touchdowns, as the Nittany Lions' 27 points-per-game average got a huge boost from 48 points last week against Massachusetts.
PSU's defense has been the big story so far, holding opponents to 270.8 yards per game, including an FBS-best 49.5 yards per game rushing. That's Northwestern's best attribute, which doesn't bode well.
Prediction: Penn State 34, Northwestern 16
Final: Northwestern 29, Penn State 6
TCU at SMU
10 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: TCU forced five turnovers in a 48-17 home win over SMU last September. It was the Horned Frogs' 12th win in the last 14 games against their old Southwest Conference rivals.
What to watch for
TCU (2-0) hasn't faced a good enough opponent to see if its revamped offense can do the trick, as neither Samford nor Minnesota has had much of a defense to test it. That's just meant the Horned Frogs have been able to fine-tune how they use quarterback Trevone Boykin and develop more of a run game.
In the meantime, their stellar secondary (which has contributed to a plus-three turnover margin) has held teams to just 112.5 passing yards per game.
SMU (0-3) is more of a throwing team than one that runs, but that's not saying much. The Mustangs have only completed 51.8 percent of their passes in three games, while their many quarterbacks used have been sacked 20 times. That's contributed to a rushing offense that is averaging a scant 28.7 yards per game.
SMU actually had its best offensive outing last week at home against Texas A&M yet still lost by 52. It won't do as badly this time out, but it also won't have much of a chance to win.
Prediction: TCU 37, SMU 13
Final: TCU 56, SMU 0
South Florida at No. 19 Wisconsin
11 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: None
What to watch for
South Florida (2-2, 1-0) is averaging 293 yards per game but, because of weak competition, has a pair of victories, including a waterlogged 17-14 win over Connecticut last week to start American Athletic Conference play. The Bulls have been decent against the run, allowing 142 yards per game, but none of their opponents have been able to run as well as Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (2-1) leads the FBS in rushing at 359.7 yards per game after gaining 644 yards last week against Bowling Green. Tanner McEvoy has found himself at quarterback by being able to run first, opening up the pass a bit. But even when that fails, the Badgers know that Melvin Gordon seems to have found his form. Gordon ran for 253 yards and five touchdowns last week, and he's averaging 9.4 yards per carry this season.
Wisconsin scored 68 points against a decent Bowling Green team last week, and South Florida only wishes it was as good as Bowling Green.
Prediction: Wisconsin 58, South Florida 14
Final: Wisconsin 27, South Florida 10
Tulane at Rutgers
12 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Gary Nova threw for 158 yards and a touchdown in Rutgers' season-opening 24-12 road win over Tulane in September 2012.
What to watch for
Tulane (1-3) has failed to rekindle the defensive fire it had last year in getting to seven wins, allowing 414.8 yards and 35.8 points per game. That's prevented progress from quarterback Tanner Lee and running back Sherman Badie, both freshmen, from standing out.
Rutgers (3-1) has to rework how it approaches things on offense after star running back Paul James was lost for the season with a torn ACL suffered Saturday against Navy. James had run for 363 yards and five touchdowns, but now his work will be handed over to Desmon Peoples and converted defensive back Justin Goodwin.
If they can carry the load, it will take pressure off Nova, who can be either really good (563 yards and five touchdowns in the Scarlet Knights' first two games) or really bad (five interceptions in the loss to Penn State).
Prediction: Rutgers 29, Tulane 21
Final: Rutgers 31, Tulane 6
Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia
13 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Aaron Murray threw a touchdown pass with five seconds left in regulation to force overtime, then Marshall Morgan kicked a 42-yard field goal in a 34-31 win at Tennessee last October. It was the Bulldogs' fourth straight win over the Volunteers.
What to watch for
Tennessee (2-1) has been decent in stopping the run this year, holding its first three opponents to 129 yards per game, including only 146 against Oklahoma. But no opponent has had the hard runners featured as much as what Georgia will use, and with the Volunteers offense not producing as well as expected, Tennessee could be in for a long afternoon in its SEC opener.
Georgia (2-1, 0-1) is rushing for 304 yards per game, and it's doing so on minimal carries. Todd Gurley has run it only 41 times in three games yet still has 402 yards. The Bulldogs as a team average 7.73 yards per rush (No. 2 in the nation behind Wisconsin).
Georgia's pass defense remains an issue, though, so look for Tennessee to try to throw as much as possible to exploit that weakness. It will almost have to, assuming Gurley and his gang run wild.
Prediction: Georgia 35, Tennessee 21
Final: Georgia 35, Tennessee 32
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
14 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; noon ET
Last meeting: Vanderbilt achieved bowl eligibility for a school-record third straight season with a 22-6 home win over Kentucky last November.
What to watch for
Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-2 SEC) has shown signs of life in the last two weeks but still is a long way from being a good team in head coach Derek Mason's first season.
The Commodores give up 39.3 points and 423.3 yards per game, while they've only been able to gain 283.5 yards per contest themselves. Freshman back Ralph Webb is developing into an effective runner, but until the quarterback situation improves (three passers have combined for 49.5 percent efficiency and six interceptions), he'll start to get keyed on and slowed down.
Kentucky (2-1, 0-1) has a great opportunity to get its first SEC win since the 2011 finale against Tennessee. The Wildcats have grown offensively, showing that in spades during their triple-overtime loss at Florida two weeks ago, but quarterback Patrick Towles needs some help from the run game.
The Wildcats will also exceed their win total from each of the past two seasons (two).
Prediction: Kentucky 33, Vanderbilt 21
Final: Kentucky 17, Vanderbilt 7
Colorado State at Boston College
15 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 12:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Boston College downed Colorado State 35-21 in the 2003 San Francisco Bowl.
What to watch for
Colorado State (2-1) is far more effective through the air than as a running team, led by senior Garrett Grayson, with his 993 passing yards and eight touchdowns. That will bode well against a Boston College team that stifled USC's strong run game a few weeks back but was eaten up by the pass.
Boston College (3-1) is essentially a one-person squad on offense, with dual-threat quarterback Tyler Murphy accounting for 991 yards of total offense so far. That includes 500 on the ground, along with five touchdowns, pacing the Eagles' run attack to a per-game average (336.3 yards) that is fifth best in FBS.
BC's ability to break through the line and mess up the run lanes is how it beat USC, but Colorado State's line might be a little more experienced. Look for the Rams to pull the cross-country upset.
Prediction: Colorado State 30, Boston College 24
Final: Colorado State 24, Boston College 21
Western Michigan at Virginia Tech
16 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 12:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Virginia Tech blanked Western Michigan 63-0 in 2004. The Hokies are 3-0 against the Broncos, outscoring them 124-0.
What to watch for
Western Michigan (2-1) has already doubled the wins it produced in coach P.J. Fleck's first season, and it's doing it with a pretty balanced attack from its youthful lineup. Sophomore quarterback Zach Terrell has thrown for 712 yards and six touchdowns, while freshman Jarvion Franklin has rushed for at least 163 yards and three TDs in every game.
Virginia Tech (2-2) has been better against the run than the pass, but its interior defense suffered a major blow when tackle Luther Maddy underwent surgery Monday to repair a torn meniscus. He will be out at least two to four weeks. Without him plugging up the middle, the Hokies won't be able to breeze by a very beatable opponent.
Tech wins but struggles to control the game.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Western Michigan 24
Final: Virginia Tech 35, Western Michigan 17
Army at Yale
17 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 1 p.m.
Last meeting: Army beat Yale 39-13 in 1996, moving its record to 16-21-8 in the all-time series.
What to watch for
Army (1-2) completes a three-game cross-country road trip (with stops at Stanford and Wake Forest) with a visit to an FCS school to help celebrate the 100th anniversary of the famed Yale Bowl stadium. The Black Knights have 12 losses and a tie against FCS competition, most recently losing to Stony Brook in 2012.
Yale (1-0) opened its season last week with a wild 54-43 win over Lehigh, gaining 683 yards that included 356 passing yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Morgan Roberts. The Bulldogs are 0-7 against FBS teams but have a strong history against Army dating back to the 1890s.
Army brings in the No. 14 rushing offense in the FBS at 293.3 yards per game, but it's 100th in total defense at 435.7 yards allowed. Expect a wild one, but Army should be able to pull out the victory.
Prediction: Army 38, Yale 33
Final: Army 49, Yale 43 (OT)
Akron at Pittsburgh
18 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 1:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Pittsburgh beat Akron 35-0 in 1998.
What to watch for
Akron (1-2) has yet to establish its run game this season, averaging only 91.3 yards per game. That's forced quarterback Kyle Pohl, who's also the Zips' leading rusher with a scant 69 yards, to have to do too much. Akron has managed only 20 points total in its last two games.
Pittsburgh (3-1) fell apart late against Iowa, missing out on its best start since 2000. The Panthers had been one of the best red-zone offenses in the country behind James Conner's power running, but they had to settle for field goals twice. Conner (699 yards, nine touchdowns) runs as hard as anyone, and the 6'2", 250-pound bruiser will continue to get a lot of touches.
Pitt will rebound and dominate with its run game once again.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 36, Akron 17
Final: Akron 21, Pittsburgh 10
Maryland at Indiana
19 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 1:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Indiana beat Maryland 13-7 in 1935.
What to watch for
The first full weekend of Big Ten play features one game that never would have been considered an important contest before the season began, but with Maryland (3-1) and Indiana (2-1) both coming off big road wins, it's suddenly the most important matchup on the slate.
Maryland has won both of its road games in impressive fashion, outlasting South Florida earlier in the year and then beating Syracuse by two touchdowns last week. The Terrapins have managed to stay mostly healthy, something they couldn't do last season, and have gotten 1,077 yards and 10 total touchdowns from senior quarterback C.J. Brown.
Indiana's 31-27 victory at previously unbeaten Missouri was among the biggest surprises of last Saturday, with the Hoosiers having little trouble moving the ball against a tough defense. Yardage and points haven't been the issue for Indiana, which is rushing for 310.3 yards per game, led by junior Tevin Coleman's 569 yards and six TDs.
It's been stopping opponents that has been a problem for Indiana, which gave up 45 points at Bowling Green the week before and is yielding 414.3 yards per game.
"We haven't accomplished anything," Indiana coach Kevin Wilson told David Woods of The Indianapolis Star. "We had one good week. We talked about a season. It's a football season, not a football week."
Still, the Hoosiers' victory was quite impressive, considering how Missouri had looked before that. If anything can be built off that game, it's Indiana's second straight Big Ten-opening win.
Prediction: Indiana 38, Maryland 30
Final: Maryland 37, Indiana 15
Eastern Illinois at Ohio
20 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 2 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
What to watch for
Eastern Illinois (1-3) has struggled this season after reaching the FCS quarterfinals in 2013, operating a new offense under a new head coach. The Panthers won 63-7 over Austin Peay last week and opened the year with a 42-20 loss at Minnesota that dropped them to 5-32 against FBS teams.
Ohio (2-2) finally found its offense last week in a win over Idaho and appears to have unearthed a strong weapon in freshman running back A.J. Ouellette. He ran for 132 yards and two touchdowns last week after getting just 11 carries in the Bobcats' first three games. A 107th-ranked defense needs to improve, though, for the Bobcats to compete in the Mid-American.
Ohio hasn't lost to an FCS team since 2002 and, with the momentum gained from last week, will avoid doing so again this weekend.
Prediction: Ohio 30, Eastern Illinois 24
Final: Ohio 34, Eastern Illinois 19
Bowling Green at Massachusetts
21 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Travis Greene ran for 160 yards and Matt Johnson threw three touchdown passes in a 28-7 home win over Massachusetts last October.
What to watch for
Bowling Green (2-2) has picked up the distinction of having the lowest-ranked defense in FBS after it allowed 644 rushing yards to Wisconsin last week. That's a far cry from the defensive-minded team of previous coach Dave Clawson that won the Mid-American. Dino Babers has brought tempo and fire to the offense, which, even with backup quarterback James Knapke, is thriving, but the Falcons have had to try to win shootouts.
Massachusetts (0-4) hasn't had the results to show for it, but it has been competitive in two of four games. The Minutemen have gotten good production from Marshall transfer Blake Frohnapfel at QB, but with a run game that's fifth worst in the FBS at 62.5 yards per outing, they can't maintain much on offense. They've yet to show much punch on defense, allowing at least 30 points in every game.
Bowling Green is going to beat up on teams that can't play defense, and if there's no fight given back, the Falcons will take the game.
Prediction: Bowling Green 45, Massachusetts 24
Final: Bowling Green 47, Massachusetts 42
Western Kentucky at Navy
22 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Antonio Andrews ran for 182 yards and two touchdowns in a 19-7 home win over Navy last September.
What to watch for
Western Kentucky (1-2) has been fueled by the top-rated passing of Brandon Doughty, who in three games is averaging 486.3 yards per game and has 12 touchdowns. Brian Brohm has ramped up the tempo in his first season and wants to get the plays out as quickly as possible, though he doesn't have a run game to complement Doughty's passing.
Navy (2-2) continues to be one of the more impressive running teams in the country, though with quarterback Keenan Reynolds hobbled a bit, the attack hasn't been as potent of late. Last week Rutgers limited the Midshipmen to 171 yards on the ground, less than half their average, and forced Reynolds to throw it 22 times.
Both sides will try to dictate the pace, and Navy's slow-and-steady approach will come out on top.
Prediction: Navy 35, Western Kentucky 30
Final: Western Kentucky 36, Navy 27
Minnesota at Michigan
23 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Devin Gardner threw for 235 yards and a touchdown on 13-of-17 passing in Michigan's 42-13 home win over Minnesota last October. The Wolverines have won six straight against the Golden Gophers and 22 of 23.
What to watch for
Minnesota (3-1) has been ravaged by injuries already this season, mostly on the defensive side, and quarterback Mitch Leidner sat out last week with turf toe and an MCL knee injury.
Coach Jerry Kill told Marcus R. Fuller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press he's still a question mark for Saturday, which would mean Chris Streveler starts. Last week he ran for 161 yards (while running back David Cobb added 207) but only completed one of seven passes.
Michigan (2-2) defends the run quite well, holding opponents to 80.3 yards per game, giving it a major matchup edge for this game. The Wolverines need that because their offense has been so lethargic it can't manage to come back from any sort of deficit.
They've scored 10 total points in their two games against power-conference opponents, and Gardner was replaced by Shane Morris late in their 26-10 home loss to Utah.
Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press reported Tuesday that Michigan coach Brady Hoke is still evaluating which quarterback will get the start. It's a decision that could make or break Michigan's season as a whole, but the Wolverines should win their Big Ten opener with either at the helm this time out.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Minnesota 19
Final: Minnesota 30, Michigan 14
Kent State at Virginia
24 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
What to watch for
Kent State (0-3) has scored 27 points in three games, the last of which was a shutout at Ohio State. The Golden Flashes are 126th in total offense at 232.7 yards per game and aren't helping themselves much defensively by allowing 470.7 yards per game.
Virginia (2-2) has been impressive in each of its games, but youth and talent deficiencies have kept it from pulling off upsets of UCLA and BYU. The Cavaliers were able to ride their defense to a win over Louisville, but now quarterback Greyson Lambert is nursing an ankle injury and might not be available Saturday.
Lambert might be wise to sit this one out, though, because Kent State doesn't present much of a challenge.
Prediction: Virginia 41, Kent State 14
Final: Virginia 45, Kent State 13
Florida International at UAB
25 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Ty Long kicked a 28-yard field goal as time expired to lead UAB to a 27-24 win at Florida International last October.
What to watch for
Florida International (1-3) has been outscored 76-12 since taking a 16-0 lead at home over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, losing that game 42-25 and then falling 34-3 at home to Louisville the following outing. The Golden Panthers sit 123rd in total offense at 265.3 yards per game but have also only allowed 302.3 yards per contest.
UAB (2-1) has averaged 41 points per game so far this season, a major upgrade offensively under first-year coach Bill Clark. The competition in the Blazers' wins hasn't been very tough, but they also managed to score 34 against unbeaten Mississippi State on the road.
The Blazers might not have enough bad teams on their schedule to get to six wins, but they'll have little trouble getting their third to start off Conference USA play in strong fashion.
Prediction: UAB 44, Florida International 24
Final: Florida International 34, UAB 20
No. 1 Florida State at North Carolina State
26 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Jameis Winston threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns for Florida State in a 49-17 home win over North Carolina State last October.
What to watch for
Florida State (3-0, 1-0 ACC) was lucky to survive Clemson in overtime without Jameis Winston, but it wasn't so much his absence that was the biggest problem. The Seminoles have been atrocious at rushing this season, gaining just 13 yards last week and averaging 109.7 per game, which is 111th in the country.
Having Winston back will certainly change things because he has better mobility than Sean Maguire and can avoid the sacks that plagued his backup. The reigning Heisman winner will likely try to make up for his suspension-caused absence and make a lot of big plays, but he'll be facing a defense that's slowly gaining confidence as it tries to support a rapidly improving North Carolina State offense.
The Wolfpack (4-0) are off to their best start since 2010 and are doing it with heady play from quarterback Jacoby Brissett (1,005 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception) and a run game that's netted 248.8 yards per game. Brissett, a Florida transfer, threw an interception in the first half of NC State's opener and has since passed it 108 times without another pick, according to Luke DeCock of The News & Observer.
This is a dangerous game for Florida State, but you have to think it got the message with last week's wake-up call and will assert itself early. If it can't, the Wolfpack will challenge throughout.
Prediction: Florida State 37, North Carolina State 21
Final: Florida State 56, North Carolina State 41
Wake Forest at Louisville
27 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Brian Brohm threw for 311 yards in Louisville's 24-13 win over Wake Forest in the 2007 Orange Bowl.
What to watch for
Wake Forest (2-2) is getting by with as little offense as possible, only averaging 262.8 yards per game, including just 42.0 per game on the ground. Freshman quarterback John Wolford has learned on the job, throwing seven total interceptions but notching two touchdown passes in each of his last three games. The Demon Deacons defense has been able to keep things close, but ACC play will bring tougher offenses.
Louisville (3-1, 1-1) has seen its offense sputter the past two games, while its defense is starting to rise up under former Georgia coordinator Todd Grantham. The Cardinals are seventh in total defense at 256.5 yards allowed per game and have surrendered just one rushing touchdown this season.
Bobby Petrino hasn't been happy with Louisville's offense, and he'll want to have it reassert itself to be able to stay in the race for the Atlantic Division.
Prediction: Louisville 28, Wake Forest 14
Final: Louisville 20, Wake Forest 10
Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo
28 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Branden Oliver ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns in Buffalo's 44-7 win at Miami last November.
What to watch for
Miami (0-4) has lost 20 straight games, though it has managed to be somewhat competitive in a few this season. The RedHawks led at Cincinnati early last week, and Notre Dame transfer Andrew Hendrix has fared well at quarterback with 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns. Last year, Miami QBs combined for 1,491 yards and eight TDs in 12 games.
Buffalo (2-2) has a pair of wins over FCS teams, while against FBS competition it has been outscored 110-60. The 2013 Bulls that featured first-round NFL draft pick Khalil Mack and potent rusher Branden Oliver are no longer, but quarterback Joe Licata has done his best with 1,099 yards and 12 touchdown passes.
If this game were at Miami, we'd go with the RedHawks to end their streak and get a big Mid-American victory. Instead, it will be another win over a bad team for Buffalo.
Prediction: Buffalo 44, Miami 31
Final: Buffalo 35, Miami 27
Arkansas vs. No. 6 Texas A&M (at Arlington, Texas)
29 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Texas A&M won a back-and-forth 45-33 game at Arkansas last October behind 320 yards of total offense from Johnny Manziel.
What to watch for
Arkansas (3-1, 0-1 SEC) has established its identity in spades over the past three games, churning out huge chunks of yardage on the ground to control tempo. The Razorbacks are averaging 324.5 rushing yards per game, and their 17 rushing touchdowns are second most in the country.
Alex Collins (490 yards, five TDs) and Jonathan Williams (391 yards, seven TDs) have been a potent one-two running punch, but it's been the improved play of quarterback Brandon Allen that could be the key to an Arkansas win. He completed 15 of 22 passes for 199 yards and two scores last week against Northern Illinois.
Texas A&M (4-0, 1-0) heads into this neutral-site game—played at AT&T Stadium—brimming with confidence from how its young defense has thrived the past three weeks against very weak competition. The Aggies beat Lamar, Rice and SMU by a combined score of 169-19, and for the year they've recorded 16 sacks and 30 tackles for loss.
The run defense has held opponents to 124.8 yards per game, but Arkansas will provide by far the toughest test on that end. Even if it cannot slow the Razorbacks, A&M has plenty of its own offense to triumph thanks to sophomore Kenny Hill's seamless execution as Manziel's replacement.
Hill has thrown for 1,359 yards and 13 TDs in his first four starts, with six different receivers catching at least 12 passes so far.
Prediction: Texas A&M 40, Arkansas 30
Final: Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 28 (OT)
Colorado at California
30 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Sefo Liufau threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns in Colorado's 41-24 win over visiting California last November.
What to watch for
Colorado (2-2, 0-1 Pac-12) has gotten major production out of breakout star Nelson Spruce, a junior who has 37 catches for 518 yards and seven touchdowns already. He's been Sefo Liufau's favorite target by a mile, though the Buffaloes haven't been able to rely on passing numbers because their defense hasn't made many stops.
California (2-1, 0-1) can empathize with unsuccessful defenses, as it wore down and allowed 36 points in the fourth quarter of last week's 49-45 loss at Arizona. That included a Hail Mary pass at the buzzer, but the fatigue factor certainly played a role after the Golden Bears led 31-13.
Cal's offense has been very sharp, with Jared Goff throwing 10 touchdown passes despite having to split snaps with run-first quarterback Luke Rubenzer.
Cal deserved to win last week and will end its 14-game conference losing streak this time around.
Prediction: California 45, Colorado 30
Final: California 59, Colorado 56 (2 OT)
Temple at Connecticut
31 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Yawin Smallwood's 59-yard interception return in the fourth quarter helped Connecticut rally from a 21-0 deficit to win 28-21 at Temple last November.
What to watch for
Temple (2-1) opens American Athletic Conference play as a much better team than the one that was 2-10 a year ago. Quarterback P.J. Walker has led an offense that isn't explosive but has managed to average 40 points despite only gaining 366 yards per game. The Owls have fed off their defense, which is tied for 15th in FBS in yards allowed at 296 per game.
Connecticut (1-3, 0-1) ran a scant 36 plays in its 17-14 loss at South Florida last week and has arguably the worst offense in the country not named SMU. The Huskies haven't topped 21 points in a game, and their rushers are averaging only 64.3 yards per outing.
Temple will take it using the same formula as in previous victories.
Prediction: Temple 31, Connecticut 17
Final: Temple 36, Connecticut 10
Texas at Kansas
32 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Malcolm Brown ran for 119 yards and four touchdowns in Texas' 35-13 home win over Kansas last November.
What to watch for
Texas (1-2) heads into Big 12 play with a constantly shrinking roster that saw a ninth player dismissed since Charlie Strong took over. ESPN.com's Max Olson reports that offensive lineman Kennedy Estelle was booted for violating team rules.
Quarterback David Ash has been lost with another head injury and is done with football, leaving the reins to sophomore Tyrone Swoopes. He's completed 67.7 percent of his passes but has only three touchdowns, getting little help from his backfield.
Kansas (2-1) is gaining only 5.15 yards per play on offense, which ranks 94th in the nation. The Jayhawks have been unable to put together any consistent sort of attack, with Montell Cozart only completing 54.8 percent of his passes. The defense hasn't been as bad as last year but still allowed Duke to rush for 331 yards two weeks ago.
Texas' struggles this year have been well-chronicled, but it has also faced some tough competition. There aren't many winnable games for the Longhorns in Big 12 play, but this is one of them.
Prediction: Texas 30, Kansas 16
Final: Texas 23, Kansas 0
Louisiana Tech at No. 5 Auburn
33 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Chris Todd threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns in Auburn's 37-13 win over Louisiana Tech to open the 2009 season. The Tigers are 11-0-1 all time against the Bulldogs.
What to watch for
Louisiana Tech (2-2) looked like it was poised for a breakout year with road wins at Louisiana-Lafayette and in its Conference USA opener at North Texas. Then the Bulldogs lost at home to FCS Northwestern State last week because of five turnovers. Quarterback Cody Sokol and running back Kenneth Dixon have looked good, but this team cannot make mistakes and expect to win.
Auburn (3-0) had to fight tooth and nail for its 20-14 win at Kansas State last week, but the victory showed it can come out on top without a dominant run game. Junior wide receiver Duke Williams shook off some early drops to make big catches down the stretch; he and quarterback Nick Marshall could be a potent passer-catcher combo.
But Auburn is based on the ground and will run wild in a tuneup before returning to the SEC gauntlet.
Prediction: Auburn 55, Louisiana Tech 21
Final: Auburn 45, Louisiana Tech 17
No. 16 Stanford at Washington
34 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 4:15 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Ty Montgomery had 290 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return to open the game, in Stanford's 31-28 win over Washington last October.
What to watch for
Stanford (2-1, 0-1 Pac-12) isn't getting enough credit for how well its defense has looked this year, as it has allowed just 13 points in three games, including two shutouts.
Ranked No. 1 overall with just 204.3 yards allowed per game, including only 66 per game through the air, that unit slowed down USC's uptempo attack. But because the Cardinal have struggled in the red zone, scoring only 57 percent of the time, most of the attention has been focused on that deficiency.
Washington (4-0) is getting attention for its failings, too, but that's because it has somehow managed to look both good and bad in most of its games. Last week, the Huskies trailed Georgia State 14-0 at home before winning 45-14.
For the season, they are averaging 178.8 yards per game through the air. They've been far better than all of their opponents so far and could afford to start slowly or stumble down the stretch, but Stanford is a different animal.
The Cardinal have the better players and approach. Stanford won't need to score many points to win this one, so expect a lot of defense.
Prediction: Stanford 20, Washington 16
Final: Stanford 20, Washington 13
South Alabama at Idaho
35 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 5 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
What to watch for
South Alabama (1-2, 0-1 Sun Belt) scored only nine points combined in its last two games, both at home, as its offense fell apart. The Jaguars are 108th in total offense and have only averaged 130 yards per game on the ground.
Idaho (0-3, 0-1) has shown a very effective offense, with quarterback Matt Linehan throwing for 1,039 yards and eight touchdowns. What's held the Vandals back and extended their losing streak to 10 games has been a defense that's allowed 119 total points and 507.7 yards per game.
The Vandals have been the far more competitive team, and if they're going to win games this year, it will be against opponents that have to make the long trip to Moscow.
Prediction: Idaho 39, South Alabama 24
Final: South Alabama 34, Idaho 10
UTSA at Florida Atlantic
36 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 5 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
What to watch for
UTSA (1-2) wasn't able to carry over momentum from its great opening win at Houston, as its offense has failed to convert on third down. The Roadrunners have come through on just 23.9 percent of their third-down tries, second worst in the country, which has limited them to just 21 points per game.
Florida Atlantic (1-3) scored 50 points in its lone home game and 26 in three road trips, including last week's 20-19 loss at Wyoming. The Owls are better than their offensive numbers show but need to improve defensively (525.3 yards allowed per game) to compete.
UTSA likely made some tweaks to its offense during a bye week and will get started on a likely contention for Conference USA's West Division crown on the road.
Prediction: UTSA 27, Florida Atlantic 23
Final: Florida Atlantic 41, UTSA 37
Cincinnati at No. 22 Ohio State
37 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 6 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Antonio Pittman ran for 155 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State's 37-7 win over Cincinnati in September 2006.
What to watch for
Cincinnati (2-0) has been very strong early behind quarterback Gunner Kiel, who already has 10 touchdown passes. The Bearcats' main struggle has been on defense, as they allowed Toledo to come back and make a game of it in their opener and then last week gave up 24 points (and trailed early) to winless Miami.
Ohio State (2-1) has been one of the biggest disappointments of the college football season, struggling mightily in its first two games as it tried to get by without quarterback Braxton Miller. J.T. Barrett has been both good and bad, but some of his issues are tied to an offensive line that has allowed 18 tackles for loss despite only facing one decent defense.
The Buckeyes defensive line has failed to get the push that was expected of it, but overall the pass defense has allowed only 298 yards in three games and is ranked third overall. Kiel is a far better passer than anyone Ohio State has faced, but it'll hold him down enough to pull out a closer-than-expected win.
Prediction: Ohio State 34, Cincinnati 27
Final: Ohio State 50, Cincinnati 28
North Carolina at Clemson
38 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Tajh Boyd threw for 367 yards and five touchdowns in Clemson's 59-38 home win in October 2011.
What to watch for
North Carolina (2-1) was lit up for 789 yards and 70 points at East Carolina last week and is 126th in total defense (548 yards per game) and 121st in points allowed (42.0). The Tar Heels offense has looked good but cannot keep up with the yards and points its opponents are collecting. UNC now faces a Clemson offense that is gaining confidence by the week.
Clemson (1-2, 0-1) lost its ACC opener in overtime at Florida State, giving the game away with late mistakes and questionable play-calling in OT that overshadowed a very strong performance on the road against the defending national champions.
The Tigers offense moved the ball well once freshman DeShaun Watson was inserted at quarterback, and coach Dabo Swinney has tabbed him as the starter this week over senior Cole Stoudt.
"He took care of the ball and made some big plays," Swinney said of Watson during his weekly press conference. Watson went 19-of-28 for 266 yards and added a rushing touchdown.
This will be Watson's breakout game, as the Tigers will unleash him on a very bad defense. He'll have huge numbers and lock up the starting job indefinitely.
Prediction: Clemson 47, North Carolina 24
Final: Clemson 50, North Carolina 35
Central Michigan at Toledo
39 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: David Fluellen ran for 197 yards and two touchdowns in Toledo's 38-17 win at Central Michigan last September.
What to watch for
Central Michigan (2-2) scored 13 combined points in its last two games against Syracuse and Clemson and ranks 120th nationally in total offense at 288 yards per outing. Quarterback Cooper Rush has failed to top 184 passing yards in a game, and the Chippewas have lost five fumbles already this season.
Toledo (2-2, 1-0 Mid-American) is averaging 527.3 yards per game, and even with a change at quarterback early (Logan Woodside replaced the injured Phillip Ely), its offense has been efficient and balanced. Kareem Hunt is averaging 8.9 yards per carry and has seven touchdowns, part of a running unit that's gaining 254.5 yards per game.
Toledo has struggled on defense but has the potency to outscore lesser opponents like Central Michigan.
Prediction: Toledo 40, Central Michigan 23
Final: Toledo 42, Central Michigan 28
Rice at Southern Mississippi
40 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Turner Petersen ran for 136 yards and one touchdown—and grabbed another through the air—in Rice's 44-17 home win over Southern Mississippi in October 2012.
What to watch for
Rice (0-3, 0-1 Conference USA) has gotten off to a horrible start, worsened by a home loss to FBS newcomer Old Dominion to open C-USA play last week. The Owls replaced a lot of starters from last season's league title team, and the replacements on defense have yet to come through. Rice is allowing 527.7 yards per game, ranking 122nd nationally.
Southern Mississippi (2-2) has two narrow home wins and two blowout road losses, but the Golden Eagles are making progress. Already with twice as many victories as a year ago, they've been paced by steady play from sophomore quarterback Nick Mullens. Defense is still an issue, but it's getting better.
Rice is entering an easier stretch of its schedule and should have enough to pull this one out.
Prediction: Rice 27, Southern Mississippi 24
Final: Rice 41, Southern Mississippi 23
Troy at Louisiana-Monroe
41 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Kolton Browning threw for 354 yards and five touchdowns in Louisiana-Monroe's 49-37 win at Troy last October.
What to watch for
Troy (0-4) is off to its worst start since 1982, back when it was an FCS team. The school is going through major growing pains while moving on from a senior-laden group that produced six wins last season. The Trojans are allowing 495.5 yards and 46.5 points per game.
Louisiana-Monroe (2-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) has relied mostly on defense this season, but that couldn't help the Warhawks last time out during a 31-0 loss at LSU. Quarterback Pete Thomas has been their best offensive weapon, but he had only 77 passing yards last time out and has just two touchdown passes in three games.
Monroe should contend for the upper spots in the Sun Belt, and to do so it needs to take care of opponents like Troy.
Prediction: Louisiana-Monroe 34, Troy 14
Final: Louisiana-Monroe 22, Troy 20
Missouri at No. 13 South Carolina
42 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: South Carolina won 27-24 in double-overtime at Missouri last October after Missouri's Andrew Baggett missed a 24-yard field goal.
What to watch for
Missouri (3-1) heads into SEC play with the lingering taste of an upset loss at home to Indiana, in which its normally strong defense failed to contain Tevin Coleman or get pressure on the Hoosiers quarterback. Being able to disrupt the backfield has been the Tigers' best asset defensively, while Maty Mauk and his 14 touchdown passes have paced the offense.
What Mizzou still has going for it is that it's the only team in the SEC East (other than Tennessee) yet to record a loss in conference play. That means the loss to Indiana has no effect on winning another division title, though it served as a "coming to Jesus moment," offensive lineman Mitch Morse told Pete Bland of the Columbia Daily Tribune.
South Carolina (3-1, 2-1) has dealt with many of the same issues that Missouri has, though after a harrowing opening loss to Texas A&M to drop to 0-1 in the SEC right away, the Gamecocks have managed to overcome adversity three straight weeks.
Dylan Thompson has been the motor on offense, but the quarterback needs better balance from his run game and could stand to get some help from a defense that's allowing 480 yards per game.
With ESPN's College GameDay in town, this contest has major implications to it. South Carolina would be all but eliminated from the East Division race with another loss at this point, while Missouri could completely erase last week's debacle by starting off strong in the conference.
We're going with the Gamecocks, but it may require overtime again.
Prediction: South Carolina 31, Missouri 28
Final: Missouri 21, South Carolina 20
Boise State at Air Force
43 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Jay Ajayi ran for 125 yards and four touchdowns in Boise State's 42-20 home win over Air Force last September.
What to watch for
Outside of allowing 28 points to Ole Miss in the fourth quarter of its season opener, Boise State (3-1, 1-0 Mountain West) has given up only 61 points. That includes strong defensive efforts the last two weeks, which has enabled the Broncos' uneven offense to get more consistent.
Ajayi (494 yards rushing, five touchdowns) and quarterback Grant Hedrick (1,086 yards, five touchdowns) have both been mostly good, but each has had at least one bad game.
Air Force (2-1, 0-1) has the sixth-best rushing offense in the country at 335 yards per game but only had 151 in its loss at Wyoming. The Falcons' passing game can't make up for the lack of ground production, though, so they'll need to keep trying to move the ball with the run to be successful.
Air Force will give Boise a good fight, but the Broncos are starting to hit their stride.
Prediction: Boise State 28, Air Force 23
Final: Air Force 28, Boise State 14
New Mexico State at No. 17 LSU
44 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: LSU beat New Mexico State 63-7 in 1996.
What to watch for
New Mexico State (2-2) already has as many wins as last season, but those victories have come against an FCS team (Cal Poly) and one that was at the FCS level two years ago (Georgia State) and is 1-15 since moving up. The Aggies have shown improvement, with quarterback Tyler Rogers throwing for 1,056 yards and nine touchdowns. He's also tossed at least two TD passes each game.
LSU (3-1) saw its hyped defense get torn apart by Mississippi State last week, but now it gets a chance to dominate against another lesser opponent like it did in shutout wins over Sam Houston State and Louisiana-Monroe. The Tigers need this game to get their offense in gear more than anything, though, with the quarterback situation being the most concerning issue.
Anthony Jennings was replaced by freshman Brandon Harris last week, and Harris led a late rally that nearly brought LSU all the way back. Head coach Les Miles said on the SEC teleconference that Harris will get more playing time, but Jennings is still the starter.
Both will be able to perform with ease, as New Mexico State won't pose much of a threat.
Prediction: LSU 48, New Mexico State 13
Final: LSU 63, New Mexico State 7
Duke at Miami (Florida)
45 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Duke quarterback Brandon Connette had four rushing touchdowns in a 48-30 win over visiting Miami last November.
What to watch for
Duke (4-0) gets a stern test to open up the defense of its ACC Coastal Division title, Miami's record aside. The Blue Devils haven't had a serious challenge yet, outscoring an FCS team and three other clubs with a combined 3-8 record by a 174-46 margin. Anthony Boone has looked crisp as the quarterback, with seven touchdowns and only one interception, while freshman running back Shaun Wilson has gained 404 yards.
Miami (2-2, 0-1) is showing progress on offense after starting off slowly, and true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is getting better each week. He's thrown 10 touchdown passes but has seven interceptions as well and would benefit from some improved running from the Hurricanes backs. Duke Johnson has had at least 90 yards in every game but no more than 97, as he's been limited to 61 carries.
Duke's season hit the big time last year when it won at Virginia Tech, but it won't start off with a conference victory on the road this season.
Prediction: Miami 31, Duke 26
Final: Miami 22, Duke 10
Memphis at No. 10 Ole Miss
46 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Ole Miss beat Memphis 45-14 in 2009.
What to watch for
Memphis (2-1) has nearly matched last season's win total of three already and has looked far better than in 2013 even when losing. The Tigers played UCLA to the wire and blew out nemesis Middle Tennessee last week, with quarterback Paxton Lynch looking comfortable in the pocket.
Ole Miss (3-0) has to avoid looking ahead to next week's huge visit from Alabama to open SEC play. The Rebels have gotten better each week this season, capped by a 56-15 win over Louisiana-Lafayette two weeks ago. Bo Wallace has thrown for 1,023 yards and nine touchdowns, and the Rebels defense has returned two interceptions for touchdowns this year.
The combination of opponent and the look-ahead factor will make this Ole Miss' toughest game to date. It won't be as easy a victory as it should be, but the Rebels will win comfortably.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Memphis 20
Final: Ole Miss 24, Memphis 3
Texas State at Tulsa
47 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Tulsa beat visiting Texas State 41-15 in 2003 when the school was known as Southwest Texas State and played at the FCS level.
What to watch for
Texas State (1-2) led at Illinois last week before a weather delay sapped its momentum, and the Bobcats fell 42-35. But that result still showed how potent their offense can be, as quarterback Tyler Jones has thrown for 845 yards with nine touchdowns and has also scored twice on the ground.
Tulsa (1-2) won in two overtimes against Tulane to start the season, then got crushed by Oklahoma and winless Florida Atlantic. The Golden Hurricane have a good passing combo in quarterback Dane Evans and receiver Keevan Lucas, but their defense is giving up 538 yards per game.
Tulsa only gets the edge because it's playing at home.
Prediction: Tulsa 40, Texas State 31
Final: Texas State 37, Tulsa 34 (3 OT)
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (at East Rutherford, N.J.)
48 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Donte Davis' 11-yard touchdown catch with 42 seconds left gave Syracuse a 24-23 win at Notre Dame in November 2008.
What to watch for
Notre Dame (3-0) has been one of the most complete teams in the country so far this season, only having a little hiccup early last time out against Purdue while otherwise dominating. Everett Golson has been masterful and doesn't look like his one year off from football has affected him, as he has 780 passing yards and seven touchdowns to go with some nifty moves on the ground.
The Fighting Irish have also played very solid defensively, giving up just 31 points in three games while forcing nine turnovers.
Syracuse (2-1) lost by two touchdowns at home last week to Maryland and has been very uneven this season. Quarterback Terrel Hunt has been the Orange's main source of offense, last week running for 156 yards and two touchdowns while also throwing for 219, but no one else has stepped up.
If this game was at Syracuse, Notre Dame would have more trouble, but the neutral-site setting just makes this a glorified home game for the Irish.
Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Syracuse 17
Final: Notre Dame 31, Syracuse 15
No. 7 Baylor at Iowa State
49 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Baylor racked up 714 yards of offense in a 71-7 home win over Iowa State last October.
What to watch for
Baylor (3-0) is averaging 59.3 points and 654.3 yards per game so far this season, yet it has done so without having all its skill-position starters available for any single contest. Now the Bears are expected to get No. 1 receiver Antwan Goodley back after he pulled a quad muscle in the season opener.
It hasn't really mattered which players Baylor has had on the field so far, as backup quarterback Seth Russell has more passing yards than starter Bryce Petty (who missed the second game with cracked vertebrae). Freshman KD Cannon has stepped into the lead role at receiver, with 14 catches for 471 yards and five touchdowns in his first season.
Iowa State (1-2) has shown major improvement as the season has gone along and most recently won 20-17 at rival Iowa. The Cyclones are still a work in progress on offense, though quarterback Sam B. Richardson is coming off his best effort yet with 255 passing yards and two touchdowns.
"The combination of confidence and execution has transformed the build of the Iowa State team," wrote Alex Gookin of the Iowa State Daily after the rally to win at Iowa. "Instead of expecting to lose, the Cyclones chose to win."
Confidence is good, but it's still not enough for ISU to pull off a shocker.
Prediction: Baylor 45, Iowa State 17
Final: Baylor 49, Iowa State 28
UNLV at San Diego State
50 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Caleb Herring threw for 270 yards and five touchdowns in UNLV's 45-19 win over visiting San Diego State last November.
What to watch for
UNLV (1-3) has a one-point win over an FCS team and three losses by a combined 93 points to teams that are 9-3. The Rebels graduated a lot of pieces from last year's bowl team, but quarterback Blake Decker is starting to come around. UNLV's defense hasn't been very good, though, allowing 51 points per game in its three losses.
San Diego State (1-2) didn't put up much of a fight last week at Oregon State and to this point only has a win over FCS Northern Arizona to its credit. Quinn Kaehler has been intercepted six times, leading to an offense that's ranked 93rd nationally in yards.
The Mountain West's West Division is wide-open, with only Nevada sporting a winning record. San Diego State should contend for that title and will start to do so here.
Prediction: San Diego State 33, UNLV 23
Final: San Diego State 34, UNLV 17
Washington State at Utah
51 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Connor Halliday threw for 488 yards and four touchdowns as Washington State became bowl-eligible with a 49-37 home win last November.
What to watch for
Washington State (1-3, 0-1 Pac-12) put together its best overall performance last week, matching unbeaten Oregon point for point until the end of its 38-31 home loss. The Cougars aren't fancy in what they do on offense; it's just a whole lot of Halliday (1,901 passing yards, 16 touchdowns) and very little running (45.8 yards per game).
Utah (3-0) picked up a huge win at Michigan last week but did so without much semblance of a consistent offense. Quarterback Travis Wilson was briefly knocked out of the game, and the Utes didn't move the ball much without him on the field. Wilson has seven touchdowns and no interceptions and is the engine that drives this team.
Utah has allowed 631 passing yards in three games, something Halliday could match in one outing. He may need to for Washington State to pull the upset, but with the Utes ripe for a letdown, the visiting Cougars will steal one.
Prediction: Washington State 40, Utah 34
Final: Washington State 28, Utah 27
Illinois at No. 21 Nebraska
52 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 9 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Ameer Abdullah ran for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Nebraska's 39-19 home win over Illinois last October.
What to watch for
Illinois (3-1) took advantage of a lengthy weather delay to regroup and rebound against Illinois State last week, winning 42-35. The Fighting Illini have trailed early in all their games, with quarterback Wes Lunt (1,237 yards, 11 touchdowns) leading the comeback most times. Running back Josh Ferguson finally woke up with 190 yards against Texas State, but no amount of offense will be enough if Illinois' defense doesn't start slowing teams down.
Nebraska (4-0) has been mostly impressive in running out to a perfect start and takes the momentum of a solid win over Miami (Florida) into Big Ten play. The Cornhuskers have gotten great production from both Abdullah (625 rushing yards) and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (1,240 yards of total offense, 11 total touchdowns), while their defense has been solid against the run and good overall.
Nebraska could be looking ahead to next week's game at Michigan State, but it still is the better team and will just need to prevent Illinois from trying for another late rally.
Prediction: Nebraska 40, Illinois 28
Final: Nebraska 45, Illinois 14
Oregon State at No. 18 USC
53 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 10:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Javorius Allen ran for 133 yards and three touchdowns in USC's 31-14 win at Oregon State last November.
What to watch for
Oregon State (3-0) heads into Pac-12 play having gone through three relatively stress-free games, and last time out it had no trouble with San Diego State. The Beavers are still a pass-heavy team, with school career-passing leader Sean Mannion averaging 301 yards per game with only two interceptions.
OSU has shown the most improvement so far on the ground, where it's averaging 145.7 yards per game a year after rushing for only 94.4.
USC (2-1, 1-0) has had to regroup after its upset loss at Boston College two weeks ago, a game in which its young defense got torn apart and its thin offensive line was dominated. Quarterback Cody Kessler has been the Trojans' most consistent weapon, with 846 yards and eight touchdowns, while Allen has contributed well both as a rusher and pass-catcher.
The Trojans are young and don't have a lot of depth, but they are still the better team and have far more talent. Mannion hasn't faced a real defensive push yet, and he'll make some big mistakes that will cost Oregon State.
Prediction: USC 31, Oregon State 20
Final: USC 35, Oregon State 10
Nevada at San Jose State
54 of 54
When: Saturday, Sept. 27; 10:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Kendall Brock ran for two touchdowns in Nevada's 38-16 win over visiting San Jose State last November.
What to watch for
Nevada (2-1) has been powered by the dual-threat ability of quarterback Cody Fajardo, who has thrown for 734 yards and rushed for another 182. Take his output away, though, and the Wolf Pack are pretty pedestrian. Their defense managed to shut down Washington State a few weeks back and has the ability to force mistakes.
San Jose (1-2) has had to make two long road trips, to Auburn and Minnesota, and neither went well. This inexperienced team is slowly settling into its new leaders, but so far senior quarterback Blake Jurich hasn't been able to move the Spartans much.
With as soft as the Mountain West's West Division is, this game is as important as any toward deciding the division champ. Both teams should be considered in the mix, but Nevada will prove to be the better club by the final whistle.
Prediction: Nevada 28, San Jose State 23
Final: Nevada 21, San Jose State 10
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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