Buying or Selling Every NFL Contender or Pretender After 2026 NFL Draft

There will still be minor tweaks to NFL rosters as teams finish things off with late free-agent additions, but with the 2026 NFL draft in the rearview, we have a decent idea of what the league's 32 teams will look like this year.

Granted, while we know what teams look like on paper, games aren't played on paper. There will be injuries and surprises—both good and bad—but educated guesses can still be made about the prospects for teams in the season to come.

You won't find the NFL's 14 playoff teams here—they are seemingly contenders by default. You also won't find the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets or Tennessee Titans. If one of those teams makes the postseason, it will mean they shattered every realistic expectation.

What you will find are a dozen NFL teams that missed the playoffs last season but have some measure of postseason aspirations in 2026—and a verdict on whether those aspirations are realistic.

So, let the speculation about this year's contenders and pretenders commence.

Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Falcons edge James Pearce Jr.

There are big changes in Atlanta in 2026 after the team missed the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season a year ago.

There's a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski. The Falcons brought in competition for Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback in the form of Tua Tagovailoa. The team didn't have a first-round pick this year as a result of last year's trade up for edge-rusher James Pearce Jr., but it was still able to add help on both sides of the ball in wide receiver Zachariah Branch and cornerback Avieon Terrell.

The Falcons have no shortage of offensive weaponry and led the NFC in sacks last year. But Pearce could face a personal-conduct suspension following his offseason arrest, and quarterback remains a major question mark.

The key for the Falcons is weathering the first half of the season. If they can do so without falling too far off the pace, they'll be in the mix in a weak NFC South.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

This is one of the easier calls on this list, and it needs to be. Expectations in Baltimore remain sky-high.

After a hugely disappointing 2025 campaign in which the Ravens missed the postseason altogether, longtime head coach John Harbaugh was fired. The mandate for new HC Jesse Minter is clear: get this team back to the playoffs.

The Ravens were aggressive in adding talent in both free agency and the draft. A pass rush that struggled in a major way last year brought in veteran edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson and added a highly touted rookie in Zion Young.

The loss of center Tyler Linderbaum was a blow, but Baltimore tried to soften the blow by drafting Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane in Round 1.

This is a team with a two-time MVP at quarterback that won double-digit games three straight years from 2022 to 2024.

The Ravens will be right back in the mix in the AFC North in 2026.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase

From one of the easiest calls among the teams who failed to make the postseason last year to one of the most difficult.

There's no question that the Cincinnati Bengals can put up points. The team has a Pro Bowl quarterback in his prime in Joe Burrow. One of the league's best wide receiver duos in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. A capable running back in Chase Brown.

The question in Cincinnati is the defense, which was dead last in the AFC last year.

The Bengals spent big upgrading the defensive line in the offseason. Edge-rusher Boye Mafe and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen were signed in free agency. The team shipped a first-round pick to the New York Giants for tackle Dexter Lawrence. Used a Day 2 pick on edge-rusher Cashius Howell.

But the linebackers and secondary remain major areas of weakness, and Burrow's injury history is starting to become a real concern.

The Bengals will be entertaining in 2026, but just like the season before the team is too one-sided to be a major postseason threat.

Verdict: Pretender (Sell)

Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams

The Dallas Cowboys are the NFC equivalent of the Cincinnati Bengals: all offense and no defense.

That offense was second in the league in yards per game and seventh in points per game last year, and it's loaded with talent. Quarterback Dak Prescott has a plethora of weapons at his disposal in the likes of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Running back Javonte Williams had the best season of his career in 2025.

However, the defense was atrocious last season. Dallas was the only team in the NFL to average over 30 points per game allowed.

That defense is receiving a major influx of talent this offseason, whether it's veterans like edge-rusher Rashan Gary, linebacker Dee Winters and safety Jalen Thompson or a pair of first-round rookies in edge-rusher Malachi Lawrence and safety Caleb Downs.

It's not a stretch to say that the Cowboys have the most potent offense in the NFC East. If that new-look defense can be even average, Dallas will be players in the division.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Lions S Brian Branch

It wasn't supposed to be like this in Detroit last year.

Coming off the best regular season in franchise history and the NFC No. 1 seed, the Lions were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders. Instead, they backslid on both sides of the ball, won just nine games and failed to make the postseason at all.

This year's team isn't that much different personnel-wise. Jared Goff still has no shortage of weapons in stars like running back Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. With longtime left tackle Taylor Decker gone, Penei Sewell will switch to the left side of the line while 2026 first-round pick Blake Miller slots in at right tackle.

On defense, the biggest changes are on the edge. After a career-high 11 sacks a year ago, veteran Al-Quadin Muhammad is gone, replaced by the duo of journeyman D.J. Wonnum and second-round rookie Derrick Moore. The team also added a veteran in the secondary in cornerback Roger McCreary.

There are admittedly questions in Motown. But this is a team that narrowly missed the postseason last year.

It won't take much to get the Lions back in the mix.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Colts WR Alec Pierce

The 2025 season started like a dream for the Indianapolis Colts—and ended like a nightmare.

With Daniel Jones playing some of the best football of his career, the Colts entered the bye week 8-2 and in first place. Then the quarterback tore his Achilles, and the team lost seven straight games to close out the season.

The focus of free agency for the Colts was on keeping Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce in town, and they did just that. However, wide receiver Michael Pittman was sent packing in a trade.

Indy had no first-round pick as a result of the Sauce Gardner trade, but a pair of rookies should be Day 1 starters, with linebacker C.J. Allen (Round 2) and safety A.J. Haulcy (Round 3) set to take over for the departed Zaire Franklin and Nick Cross.

The health of Jones will go a long way toward determining how the Colts fare in 2026. But it's difficult to imagine a hobbled Jones leading a good-but-not-great team past the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South.

Verdict: Pretender (Sell)

Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

This is not the sort of article one expects to see the Kansas City Chiefs in. This is a team that dominated the AFC West for a decade, made an annual habit of hosting the AFC Championship Game and played in five Super Bowls, winning three of them.

But last year was a mess. The close games the Chiefs won in recent years turned into losses, and Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. And for the first time since 2012, the team lost double-digit games.

The Chiefs' focus in the offseason (especially the draft) was on the defense, although they did spend big on Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III on offense.

With Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook all gone, the Chiefs will have multiple new starters in the secondary in veterans Alohi Gilman and Kader Kohou and rookie Mansoor Delane. Rookies R Mason Thomas and Peter Woods could see considerable playing time from Day 1 along the defensive front.

The hope is that Mahomes will be ready for Week 1, but the Chiefs acquired Justin Fields as short-term insurance under center. Provided Kansas City doesn't fall in too deep a hole early on, it can't be counted out.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

Two years ago, the Minnesota Vikings won 14 games. But then they had a choice to make at quarterback: re-sign Sam Darnold or hand over the reins to J.J. McCarthy.

The Vikings chose poorly, and the team went back to the well under center in the offseason.

Kyler Murray hasn't officially been named Minnesota's starting quarterback yet, but given how McCarthy has played to date that announcement is coming. Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler who will have plenty of passing-game weapons, but there's a reason the team threw in the towel on him.

There are defensive questions as well. Longtime starting safety Harrison is gone, and the team could be looking at a pair of rookie starters up front in Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange.

The Vikings could be the fourth-best team in the NFC North. But this was a team that was third in the league in total defense last year. If Kevin O'Connell can coach Murray up, Minnesota could do some damage in 2026.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Ella Hall

Saints QB Tyler Shough

It's not that often that a team wins six games and the season is considered something of a success. But expectations for the New Orleans Saints were non-existent last year.

The question now is whether the Saints can build on that "success."

Can Tyler Shough take the next step under center? Can free-agent addition Travis Etienne Jr. boost a ground game that was 28th in the NFL in 2025. Will rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson finally give Chris Olave a running mate at wide receiver?

Defensively, can Chase Young and Carl Granderson step up on the edge with longtime stalwart Cameron Jordan gone? Can Kaden Elliss do the same for the departed Demario Davis at linebacker? Can a secondary short on big names come close to last year's ranking of fourth in the NFL against the pass?

The Saints appear to be headed in the right direction, but that's too many questions for the team to be a factor in the NFC South in 2026.

Verdict: Pretender (Sell)

New York Giants

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Giants LB Arvell Reese

There isn't a team in this article that won fewer games in 2025 than the New York Giants, but it's the dawn of a new day under new head coach John Harbaugh.

And there's reason for optimism.

Granted, much of that optimism hinges on the return of a healthy Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers—all three missed significant time in 2025. But if they do, it's a solid skill-position core playing behind a top-10 offensive line that added a Day 1 starter in Round 1 rookie Francis Mauigoa.

The defense features a litany of new faces. Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is gone, but the team still had a formidable duo of edge-rushers in Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. There are new inside linebackers in veteran Tremaine Edmunds and 2026 No. 5 overall pick Arvell Reese. The secondary got a bump with the addition of cornerbacks Greg Newsome and Colton Hood.

If there's a team poised to make a huge jump from the outhouse to the penthouse in 2026 a la last year's New England Patriots, the Giants are that squad.

Verdict: Contender (Buy)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka

Entering last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the four-time defending NFC South champions. When they hit their Week 9 bye, they were 6-2 and cruising toward another division crown. But then the bottom fell out—two wins over the team's last nine games.

And now it's fair to ask if the team's Super Bowl window is shut.

The team's elder statesmen on both sides of the ball (wide receiver Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David) are gone, replaced by second-year pro Emeka Egbuka and veteran Alex Anzalone.

The addition of rookie edge-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. should provide a badly needed jolt to a pass rush that struggled a year ago, but linebacker and cornerback are both positions that could be shaky.

The Buccaneers haven't won more than 10 games in a season since 2021. The rest of the NFC South improved as much if not more than Tampa did this offseason.

Unless Baker Mayfield stands on his head, the Bucs look a lot like last year.

And last year wasn't good enough.

Verdict: Pretender (Sell)

Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

While the New England Patriots were going from also-ran to the AFC title last year, the Washington Commanders were hurtling in the opposite direction.

After winning 12 games and making the NFC Championship Game in 2024, an injury-ravaged Commanders squad went 5-12 in 2025.

Much of the reason for that collapse was the NFL's worst defense, and the team went hard at that situation in the offseason.

Rookie linebacker Sonny Styles takes over for Bobby Wagner inside after being drafted seventh overall, and Washington spent big in free agency on the pass rush with the addition of edge-rushers Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson. Safety Nick Cross and cornerback Amik Robertson were signed to bolster a bad pass defense.

Offensively, the team spent a Day 2 pick on wideout Antonio Williams, who the Commanders hope will step up as a complement to Terry McLaurin. But an average offensive line didn't get much better, and the skill-position talent around quarterback Jayden Daniels isn't especially imposing.

In an NFC East that is shaping up to be a much harder division in 2026, the Commanders have a better chance of finishing last than first.

Verdict: Pretender (Sell)