Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 3: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

Thursday Night Football can be the best and worst possible thing for the psyche of a fantasy owner.

Have a player perform well—like, say, you had Julio Jones last night for instance—you're feeling fantastic heading into the weekend. Tinker time? Hell no, baby, I'm riding a hot streak. You might even take a day spa trip with the significant other on Saturday or attend some other adult function I'm far too immature to understand.

Have a player perform poorly—looking at you, any Bucs player ever—and you may as well just check into an asylum for the next 72 hours. The fantasy app will only close in those brief respites you allow for eating and drinking—this not in celebration but in full-fledged agony. There is no sleep; there is only gut-wrenching despair as you attempt to figure out ways to atone for that [six expletives later] underperformer.

This is a relatively new thing for fantasy owners. Used to be your tinkering was mostly done by the weekend, with injury updates being the only major swing vote. Now, Friday and Saturday have become their own fantasy purgatory. 

Luckily, we're here to take some of that stress away. Here's a quick look at some position-by-position advice heading into Week 3.

Quarterback: Start (Any Mid-Tier Starter) Over Kirk Cousins

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The disadvantage of drafting Robert Griffin III, who came off the board as a fifth- or sixth-round pick in most drafts, was his propensity for injury. The advantage of drafting Griffin was the knowing. Even if backup quarterbacks are usually a waste of space, selecting Griffin early and then planning to select a later-round guy as an insurance policy was the rare exception to the rule.

As everyone knows, it took Griffin four and a half quarters to go down with a serious injury. The Washington quarterback suffered a dislocated ankle in last week's win over Jacksonville and odds are he'll miss most (if not all) of Washington's 14 remaining games.

The good thing: Most Griffin owners already had contingency plans in place. The bad thing: Kirk Cousins played well enough to make you reconsider that plan. Cousins completed 22 of 33 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, taking advantage of a hapless Jaguars secondary. He stayed under control and crucially did not throw an interception—an issue that has plagued him throughout his young career.

There have been many who know far more about football than I suggesting for months that Cousins is a better fit for Jay Gruden's system than Griffin. Washington great Joe Theismann threw out Andy Dalton, who worked with Gruden in Cincinnati, as a comp.

Some or all of these things may be true, but we do not have nearly enough evidence of that to begin considering Cousins a weekly fantasy start. In fact, the opposite may be true. In his two seasons prior to 2014, Cousins threw an interception on one of every 20.3 pass attempts; that's basically Eli Manning's 2013 campaign over and over and over.

Football Outsiders' DVOA metric ranked Cousins the worst quarterback in football who made at least 100 pass attempts last season. Our most significant sample of data comes back with one clear conclusion: Kirk Cousins is not a good NFL quarterback.

And while he looked like one last week, one must also consider Jacksonville's putridity. I mean...that is not a good football team. Ryan Leaf might have been able to find some of those passing windows. 

So start Philip Rivers. Start Tony Romo. Start Jay Cutler. Start Andy Dalton. Hell, if you're feeling frisky, give Geno Smith a whirl. Trust your draft-night gut.

Running Back: Danny Woodhead Over Steven Jackson, Toby Gerhart and Reggie Bush

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Speaking of oft-injured players providing opportunities, Ryan Mathews was also a casualty of Sanguine Sunday. The San Diego Chargers running back will miss at least the next month with an MCL sprain suffered in last week's win over Seattle. Those who spent their offseason (understandably) ripping the Donald Brown signing soon saw the reasoning.

Mathews has played in 16 games just once in his five-year NFL career. Brown should ascend to the more typical running back role, but I'd much rather be holding onto Danny Woodhead from a fantasy perspective.

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Woodhead's role isn't going to change all that much with Mathews out of the lineup. He's never going to be a 25-carry guy; his skill set and body don't lend themselves to that workload. What Mathews' injury should provide, however, is a combination of increased and consistent opportunities—ones Woodhead has proved himself capable of taking advantage of.

Last season Woodhead very quietly combined for 1,034 total yards and eight touchdowns. He finished tied for 19th in fantasy scoring among running backs, ahead of the likes of Darren Sproles, C.J. Spiller and DeAngelo Williams. San Diego and Detroit were the only teams in football with two top-20 fantasy running backs.

Brown is a roughly league-average back. The touches should be a pretty even split, depending on the number of checkdowns Philip Rivers throws Woodhead's way. Point being: I'd put Woodhead a good deal ahead of Brown for the time being and would most certainly put him in a flex spot over any of the three veterans posted above.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Jackson rushed the ball only 23 times through the first two weeks and has mostly been taken out of Atlanta's passing attack. Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman have 113 receiving yards to Jackson's seven. (Jackson did score last night, but it was late and nearly all other criticisms still apply.)

Gerhart, who is nursing an ankle injury, is beginning to look incapable of being a lead NFL back. His 50 yards on 25 carries thus far is disappointing—even for someone who we expected next to nothing from in a putrid Jacksonville offense.

Bush has descended behind Joique Bell on the Lions running back hierarchy. Bell has 32 touches to Bush's 23 and was on the field for 13 more offensive snaps last week. 

Point being: Woodhead is on the way up; Jackson, Gerhart and Bush might all be droppable by this time next week. Grab Woodhead and don't think twice about putting him in a flex spot, especially in PPR formats.

Wide Receiver: Start Steve Smith Over Wes Welker or Emmanuel Sanders

Steve Smith Sr. (emphasis on the senior) was the 41st receiver off the board in fantasy leagues. Assuming he stays healthy for all 16 games, I'd bet on him finishing well inside the top 15. Smith has been the clear top target for Joe Flacco each of the first two weeks, compiling 189 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions.

More notable than the production, though, is the sheer volume of opportunities heading his way. Only Jordy Nelson has received more targets than Smith's 25, and Flacco has called his number 15 more times than supposed top wideout Torrey Smith. The Ravens are in Cleveland this week facing a Browns secondary that's allowed 599 passing yards and sits 24th against the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.

While it's fair to note that one of those games came against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints' aerial attack, the other came against a much more conservative Pittsburgh team. Joe Haden, Buster Skrine and rookie Justin Gilbert have all gotten off to an inauspicious start, and Flacco should be able to find some openings down the field.

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

I highlight the two Denver receivers for two reasons. One being the Broncos are playing the Seahawks in Seattle. We saw Pete Carroll's secondary defang Peyton Manning and Co. in February and, well, at this point Seattle's home-field advantage is so overblown it does not need explanation. The Chargers did an excellent job of getting the ball out of Philip Rivers' hands early and avoiding pressure, and the Broncos might want to follow a similar playbook.

That would seem to benefit Sanders and Welker, the latter of whom is returning from an abbreviated drug suspension. The issue is figuring out which of the two will actually produce at a starter level. Welker knows the system and has stayed in shape, but he also missed time in the preseason before his suspension due to a concussion; rust might be a factor. 

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

On the other hand, the plan coming into 2014 was to use Sanders in a more typical outside role—basically what Eric Decker did before taking his talents to New York City. Sanders has been solid each of the last two weeks with more than half of his snaps coming out of the slot. He's been a more unspectacular player in his career—above average but sniffing closer to league average than elite—while playing a more traditional outside role.

The basic gist here: I'm not sure how Manning is going to divvy up targets this week. The Broncos have a terrible matchup. The Thomases (Demaryius and Julius) are must-starts. Either Welker or Sanders will have a disappointing week. Take the sure thing with Smith. 

Tight End: Start Niles Paul Over Jason Witten

Rob Carr/Getty Images

"Wait, didn't you just say Kirk Cousins might be bad at football?" Yes, that indeed was me. There was no other life-form that inhabited my body during the quarterback section. (Unless I'm wrong. In which case I'm totally blaming it on the aliens hidden in most South Park episodes.)

While the jury is still out on Cousins, it's become clear over the first two weeks that tight ends are going to have value in Washington. Paul has compiled 12 receptions and 185 yards since taking over for an injured Jordan Reed in Week 1 and was Cousins' top target by far after he took over for Griffin. The former Nebraska standout had three more targets than any other Washington player and seven more than Pierre Garcon.

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Cousins' affinity for tight ends carries over from last season, when the less-talented Logan Paulsen received more than five targets per game in his three starts. Elite arm strength is not a compliment even the most strident Cousins believer would send his way. The Michigan State alum subsists on a healthy diet of short and mid-range throws to the middle of the field. 

Only 11 times in 155 attempts did Cousins attempt a pass 20 yards or longer last season, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). His move into the starting lineup should be as big a boost for Washington's tight ends as it is a detriment to DeSean Jackson, whose status for Sunday's game against Philadelphia is looking less and less solid by the day.

The Eagles defense struggled against tight ends last season, ranking 24th in DVOA. They've been a little bit better so far in 2014, but not enough to enough to shake my confidence in the matchup.

As for Witten? Six receptions, 46 yards. Those are his season totals.

The future Hall of Famer has connected with Tony Romo on less than half the quarterback's throws in his direction. It's easy to put the blame on Romo in all cases Cowboys, but Witten has looked a step or two slow coming out of the gate. The St. Louis Rams have allowed only 49 yards to opposing tight ends this season. I'm not expecting much from Witten on Sunday or going forward until he starts producing.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter