NFL Week 3 Picks: Analyzing Spread Underdogs That Will Surprise

Week 3 of the 2014 NFL season begins Thursday with an NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome.   

What appears to be a mismatch based on the Falcons' favorite status by seven points is actually one instance from this week in which the underdog has the goods to pull off a surprise cover.

The divisional implications of the Thursday-night matchup are massive, so it will be worth tuning in to see if Atlanta can protect its home field against a Bucs team already in desperation mode.

And that's just the beginning of the excitement Week 3 has to offer.

Let's take a closer look at what Tampa Bay and other upstart teams will do to make their games close, along with a complete list of picks versus the spread.

Away Team	Home Team	Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Buccaneers (+7)
San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills	Bills (-1)
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	Redskins (+6.5)
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	Cowboys (-1)
Houston Texans	New York Giants	Texans (-2)
Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Saints (-10.5)
Tennessee Titans	Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals (-7)
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	Ravens (-2)
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	Packers (+1)
Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts (-7)
Oakland Raiders	New England Patriots	Patriots (-14.5)
San Francisco 49ers	Arizona Cardinals	49ers (-3)
Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks (-5)
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Chiefs (+4.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers	Carolina Panthers	Panthers (-3)
Chicago Bears	New York Jets	Jets (-2.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) over Atlanta Falcons

As much as the domed-in atmosphere in Atlanta tends to promote the passing game, Tampa Bay figures to take the air out of the ball in this matchup by pounding it on the ground.

Based on this report from Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, it seems likely that Bucs ball-carrier Bobby Rainey will be the workhorse:

Rainey rushed for 163 yards and two touchdowns the last time he faced the Falcons, and they haven't done much to get better on the front seven. Atlanta hasn't been able to stop the pass or the run, ranking 31st and 26th in the league in those respective defensive categories.

That puts a world of pressure on Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to deliver the goods on what ought to be limited time of possession.

The good news for Ryan is that he won't have to deal with Bucs star Gerald McCoy pass-rushing from the inside or wreaking havoc in the running game, per CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora:

However, Ryan may be without one of his two best receivers in Roddy White, who's nursing a hamstring injury and is questionable. Head coach Mike Smith provided his insight into the 32-year-old's status on Tuesday, via ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure:

"

It's not important for Roddy to practice. We'd like for Roddy to practice, but it's all about getting Roddy ready on a short week. And some of these guys across the league that have some age with them, on a short week, you've got to get them to Thursday. And that's our intention.

"

Even if he does play, White likely won't be as effective as usual, allowing Tampa Bay to shift coverage toward Julio Jones.

Save for an interception in Week 2's loss to St. Louis, Tampa QB Josh McCown played rather well (16-of-21 passing, 179 yards, two rushing touchdowns). If he can protect the ball, lean on Rainey and capitalize on two massive receiving targets in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the Bucs can get back on track after an unpromising 0-2 start.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Although he threw three picks in a loss to Cincinnati, Ryan is one of the most clutch QBs in the game. Pro-Football-Reference.com indicates he has notched 17 fourth-quarter comebacks and 24 game-winning drives in his rather young career.

Ryan is also extremely tough to beat at home, per NFL on ESPN:

The knack for coming back will be just enough for "Matty Ice" to improve Atlanta to 2-1, though it won't be as easy as the spread would indicate.

Key injuries on both sides will certainly impact how the game unfolds. A short week always makes Thursday games a bit of a wild card.

This being a divisional matchup and the Bucs featuring a new coach in Lovie Smith, a totally revamped roster and a different QB give them enough of an edge to stay close at this early juncture of the year.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20

Washington Redskins (+6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

It's time for Kirk Cousins to take over coach Jay Gruden's West Coast offense, which is ideal for his skill set. Cousins thrives in making quick decisions and getting the ball out on time, but his underrated mobility and arm allow him to create big plays on occasion, too.

Nowhere near the dual-threat dynamo usual Washington QB Robert Griffin III is, Cousins is more of a prototypical, natural dropback passer.

Albert Breer of NFL Network notes how Cousins ought to have full support in stepping in to run the show:

Cousins believes he is an ideal fit for the Washington offense, via NFL.com's Kevin Petra:

"

I was thrilled to hear that Jay was hired and that Sean McVay was gonna be the offensive coordinator. I felt like, all things considered, it was probably the best possible scenario, selfishly, for me, to have a coach who has proven success with a guy in Andy Dalton who is, I would say, a similar player to me. The system didn't have a whole lot of turnover from the previous system, so we were able to keep things the same.

"

Check out how well Cousins performed in relief of RG3, per ESPN Stats & Info:

What will really give the Eagles fits, though, is Washington's rushing attack led by Alfred Morris. The visitors are likely to have balance versus Philadelphia, something its first two foes in Jacksonville and Indianapolis didn't have.

You can bet Washington receiver DeSean Jackson will be champing at the bit to make an impact against his former team, too—presuming his sprained shoulder permits him to play.

According to Eagles star running back LeSean McCoy on Monday, Jackson will be in action for Week 3, per The Washington Post's Dan Steinberg (h/t WIP in Philadelphia):

"

I actually talked to him today. [He was] just talking about he seen the game last night and we looked good. A little bit of this and that. ...

He's playing. He said he's definitely playing. That's the first thing he texted, he said 'I'm playing.' ...

I'm sure the crowds will cheer him on. I don't think they’ll boo him….Hey, they didn't boo McNabb. They didn't boo McNabb. It's tough. I don't think they will boo him, but I think he'll come out trying to play hard.

"

If the Eagles get off to a bad start—as they have in trailing by a combined 34-6 in the first half through two games—they may not have the means to claw their way back into this NFC East showdown, even at home.

Morris can help kill the clock, thwarting Philly's uptempo offense from establishing momentum. NFL.com's Gil Brandt notes how Washington has had quite a bit of explosiveness of its own thus far:

Washington sacked the Jaguars 10 times in Week 2. Eagles QB Nick Foles hasn't been as sharp this year as he was amid a breakout, 27-touchdown, two-interception 2013 campaign. Foles has already matched his INT total from last year.

Charlie Bernstein weighed in on Foles' performance against the Colts and how the young signal-caller has looked thus far in 2014:

The Eagles are ailing on the offensive line, missing tackles Lane Johnson and Allen Barbre, along with Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis. That could be bad news against the exotic schemes of opposing defensive coordinator Jim Haslett.

But chances are Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly will do whatever he can to get off to a hotter start, press Washington into a shootout and ultimately edge out the rival thanks to superior firepower.

Prediction: Eagles 38, Redskins 34

Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) over Miami Dolphins

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

It's a bit perplexing that the Chiefs, two yards away from tying things up with the reigning AFC champion Denver Broncos on the road last week, are such considerable underdogs in Miami.

Week 1's home loss to Tennessee was ugly, and the Dolphins' win over New England made these two teams look like they were trending in polar opposite directions.

How the NFL can turn a team's fate in just one week's time, though.

Kansas City ought to be feeling confident about its ability to push Denver to the limit, especially playing the second half without star RB Jamaal Charles and safety Eric Berry. Miami crashed to earth in a Week 2 loss at Buffalo.

Third-year Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been quite an enigma in his critical year to establish himself as the future face of the franchise, per NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal:

Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, a beat reporter closer to the action than most, has a strong Tannehill take:

Two extremely sophisticated statistical measures have Tannehill at opposite ends of the QB spectrum. To say the least, he's an uncertain commodity and will be difficult to get a read on until the season gets deeper.

Tannehill's complex situation is compounded by the fact that he's learning a new offense and is without his top running back in Knowshon Moreno.

Backup Lamar Miller has not proven himself to date as a viable feature back, unable to beat out Daniel Thomas as the clear starter a season ago—albeit amid anemic offensive line play.

Meanwhile, Chiefs coach Andy Reid has plenty of faith in Knile Davis, who ran for two touchdowns and 79 yards against the Broncos, per KCChiefs.com's BJ Kissel:

Reid is too good of an offensive mastermind to have orchestrated such a fast turnaround in 2013, only to see his Kansas City bunch peter out and decline rapidly this year. This is bound to be a bounce-back week for the Chiefs, whose quarterback in Alex Smith enjoyed having his best wideout (Dwayne Bowe) back for Week 2.

The increased rapport between Smith and Bowe, along with hard-nosed running by Davis, will key the Chiefs to their first win of the young season.

Whether Kansas City can keep the momentum up going forward is another matter.

Before its bye in Week 6 are two tough contests, with a home matchup against the Patriots and a road trip to San Francisco. Then the Chiefs travel to San Diego after their week off. Not exactly a kind three-game stretch.

The Dolphins, like their quarterback, are perpetually hard to pinpoint. Dropping to 1-2 wouldn't be all doom and gloom, though. They get Oakland on the road in Week 4, and if Miami is meant to make a playoff push this year, it will take care of business there and gain some steam entering its Week 5 bye.

Prediction: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 17

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and ESPN.com.