Florida State's Ground Game—Not Sean Maguire—Could Be Difference vs. Clemson

The national narrative may state otherwise, but a Florida State victory over Clemson Saturday night doesn’t depend on the right arm of Sean Maguire, who will get his first career start because of Jameis Winston’s first-half suspension. 

No, a potential Seminoles triumph over the Tigers is all about the legs of a running game with a lot to prove.

Maguire can’t make mistakes and will have to rely on proven pass-catchers Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary when FSU does go to the air in the opening two quarters, but the ‘Noles’ all-senior offensive line and its stable of game-breaking tailbacks can make it that much easier on the team’s new—albeit brief—starting quarterback.

Sounds easy enough but there’s a catch. If FSU’s rushing attack is to exert its will against the Clemson defense inside Doak Campbell Stadium, it will mark the first time this season the Seminoles’ ground game will have lived up to its potential. Despite the return of the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, FSU’s offensive identity was expected to be run first, break games open in the passing game second.

But that hasn’t happened. Yet.

The potential is there for senior Karlos Williams to have his first big game as a full-time starter. Williams boasts impressive size, speed and ability (he averaged a nation’s sixth-best 8.0 yards per carry as a reserve last season and notched 11 touchdowns) but has yet to match that skill set with output in 2014. Through two games, Williams, a former safety that switched to tailback prior to the second game of the 2013 season, is averaging 4.1 yards per carry, hasn’t had a rush go for longer than 20 yards and has just one touchdown.

The Seminoles also have the services of redshirt sophomore Mario Pender and true freshman Dalvin Cook that Maguire can rely on as Williams replacements or together in two-back sets. Sophomore Ryan Green has not yet played this season while rehabilitating a fall-camp hamstring injury but could be in uniform Saturday, FSU coach Jimbo Fisher said at his Monday press conference.

Player	Year	Carries	Yards	Touchdowns
Karlos Williams	Sr.	123	862	12
Mario Pender	R-Soph.	10	69	1
Dalvin Cook	Fr.	13	67	1
Ryan Green	Soph.	33	163	2

Like Williams, both Pender and Cook possess elite speed that could change the scoreboard on any play. They have shown flashes in the first two games—Pender had a memorable first career carry that went for a score against Oklahoma State, and a week later Cook showcased his ability to bounce the ball outside and find the end zone against The Citadel—and similar performances against Clemson would be important for a team under the offensive direction of an inexperienced quarterback.

In the season-opening loss to Georgia, the Clemson defense let Bulldogs Heisman trophy candidate Todd Gurley register 198 yards on just 15 carries. FSU doesn't have a tailback as talented as Gurley on its roster, but the trio certainly has the athletic prowess to churn out a large number of yards if given the opportunity.

A renewed focus has also been placed this season on featuring the tailbacks in the Florida State passing game, and before his suspension Winston was doing a much better job of checking down and letting FSU’s rushers make their mark through the air. Williams enters the game third on the team with seven catches this season, and Maguire would be wise to utilize his playmakers when Fisher dials up a passing play.

“Last year you might have seen us in a little bit more three or four wide [sets] at times,” Fisher said this week, “but our guys out of the backfield are dynamic and can match up on linebackers. Reads have taken us there and I think their capabilities are there.”

The capability to dictate the game also extends to Florida State’s offensive line. Even though the group lost center Bryan Stork to the NFL draft, FSU was expected to be dominant up front in 2014 with the return of future NFL selections Cameron Erving, Josue Matias, Tre’ Jackson and Bobby Hart and Stork’s senior replacement, Austin Barron.

But again, the first two games of the season haven’t reflected that popular notion.

FSU averaged 203 yards rushing per game in 2013 but so far this season ranks 73rd nationally in yards per game with 158 per contest. Against Oklahoma State and The Citadel, the same consistent gaping holes weren’t there like they were last year when Devonta Freeman, James Wilder Jr. and Williams were delivering sustained blows to defenses.

Like it was in last season’s 51-14 FSU victory over Clemson in Death Valley, pass protection by the offensive line will be key, and the premier matchup will be Erving versus superstar Tigers pass-rusher Vic Beasley. Erving handled Beasley in that FSU win, and the Seminoles benefited as Winston had time throw for more than 400 yards and Freeman churned out 84 yards on the ground.

Without consistent pressure, Winston was able to pick apart the defense and convert third-down conversions on 8-of-12 attempts.

A similar performance Saturday night will help keep the pressure off Maguire. And if he gets steady production from his stable of tailbacks, FSU’s replacement quarterback may get to experience some of the same success Winston did a season ago in a game with early-season College Football Playoff implications.

Brandon Mellor is a Florida State writer for Bleacher Report. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of Seminoles.com. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.

Follow @BrandonMellor on Twitter.