Tennessee Football: Realistic Expectations for Vols in SEC Play
The 2014 Tennessee football team is noticeably better than it was a season ago. But are the Volunteers good enough to win more games in a rugged SEC schedule?
A bowl has always been this year's goal for the Vols, and head coach Butch Jones reiterated that to his team prior to last week's loss to Oklahoma, according to Grantland's Holly Anderson:
"One day, somebody in this room is getting married, and this whole team will be at that reception, and you'll be talking, telling stories. And when you get that bowl ring? A bowl ring is the equivalent of a storybook. The two sides of it tell the story of your season. Team 118 will be bonded by that ring for the rest of their lives.
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Can UT have a storybook ending or will it be another frustrating finish?
For a program that has gone 7-25 in league play over the past four seasons, the Vols need at least a mediocre in-conference showing to make their first bowl game since 2010.
| 2010 | Derek Dooley | 6-7 | 3-5 |
| 2011 | Derek Dooley | 5-7 | 1-7 |
| 2012 | Derek Dooley | 5-7 | 1-7 |
| 2013 | Butch Jones | 5-7 | 2-6 |
Despite the 34-10 setback to fourth-ranked Oklahoma, positive vibes surround UT's program.
Improvements in team speed and competitiveness were evident against OU, and the outcome was not indicative of the game. Two end-zone interceptions and a questionable call on what appeared to be an Oklahoma fumble stood in the way of making the score look more presentable.
The Sooners were clearly better, but Tennessee found some positive elements in the running game late and also proved its third-down defensive prowess was no fluke, holding OU to 3-of-12 in conversions.
How will all that translate in SEC play? As impressive as some aspects of UT's loss were, others continued to be worrisome.
Given the way perennial league bottom-feeders like Arkansas and Kentucky have fared, prognosticators aren't high on UT's SEC ceiling. Power rankings from ESPN.com and 247Sports' JC Shurburtt placed the Vols 13th this week, ahead of only lowly Vanderbilt.
So, let's take a look at what Tennessee fans can realistically expect from the Vols entering SEC play.
Shouldn't Win
Before we get into the game-by-game breakdown, one thing is clear: There isn't a single contest remaining on the schedule that the Vols can't win.
The OU game proved UT shouldn't be counted out of any game.
Alabama hasn't looked dominant with Blake Sims at quarterback, and the Crimson Tide have some offensive weaknesses such as an inability to stretch the field in the passing game. There are also some defensive question marks, especially in the secondary.
Despite UA's imperfect start, its offensive talent is disgusting. Running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry as well as wide receiver Amari Cooper—who is on an All-American pace—are matchup nightmares for anybody.
The Tampa Bay Times' Antonya English detailed the 'Bama offense's school-record start under new coordinator Lane Kiffin, so the downfield issues haven't hindered the Tide much. Also, with all those 4- and 5-star defenders, Nick Saban will eventually find a solution.
Alabama isn't the immovable force it normally is, but it's still asking too much for a young Vols team to beat its biggest rival again this year.
Tennessee's other toughest matchup also comes from the loaded SEC West.
If Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace can play at the level he has since a forgettable first half in the season opener against Boise State, the Rebels are going to be a tough game in Oxford, Mississippi.
The Clarion-Ledger's Hugh Kellenberger notes Wallace is 58-for-72 passing (80.5 percent) for 857 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception since the first 30 minutes of the season.
Couple that with a defense loaded with talented players and experience, and the Rebels look daunting.
Should Win
The 2-1 Vols should get another victory when they host FCS little brother Chattanooga on Oct. 11, but where are the other three wins going to come from to push UT into a bowl-eligible team?
There are only two league games UT should clearly win, and one of those is now debatable.
Vanderbilt is seemingly in shambles, even after its last-second win over Massachusetts. Temple beat the Commodores by 30 in the season opener. Then they were demolished 41-3 by Ole Miss before the nail-biter against UMass.
The quarterback issues detailed by The Tennessean's David Climer are still prevalent, and first-year coach Derek Mason has failed to instill confidence in his squad following back-to-back nine-win seasons led by James Franklin.
Therefore, it's tough to see VU beating Tennessee for the third consecutive season.
The Vols are just a better team, though a lot that can happen between now and Nov. 29.
Under second-year coach Mark Stoops, Kentucky looks vastly improved. The Wildcats took Florida to the brink in "The Swamp" before losing 36-30 in double overtime last Saturday. They appear faster on defense, better offensively under quarterback Patrick Towles and could be a tough draw.
Stoops won some big recruiting battles last year, and that talent is paying dividends.
Given UT's offensive weaponry at wide receiver and Worley playing the best football of his career, the Vols still should beat UK in Neyland Stadium. UT has won 28 of the past 29 meetings against the 'Cats, and it's hard to believe the outcome will be any different.
Swing Games
That leaves an abnormal amount of pivot games.
So many teams are difficult to read this early in the season, but UT should be encouraged by how the early season has played out thus far.
Georgia looked like a national title contender in a second-half throttling of Clemson. Then, the Bulldogs tanked at South Carolina, getting exposed with a defense full of holes and a coaching staff that refused to ride running back Todd Gurley at critical moments.
The Gamecocks flashed a dynamic offense against UGA but a defense that gave up 680 yards in a 52-28 season-opening loss to Texas A&M. They also struggled to stop East Carolina in a narrow win but looked much-improved against UGA. They're extremely hard to read at this point.
While Carolina and Georgia are going to be tough draws for the Vols on the road, UT shouldn't be written off in either one.
Last year, the Vols came within an eyelash of upsetting Georgia at Neyland Stadium before succumbing in overtime.
Pig Howard's crushing goal-line fumble will be etched in the minds of UT fans for years.
The very next game, the Vols completed the upset of South Carolina.
UT always seems to play those two teams close.
Prior to the up-and-down start from UGA and Carolina, the two biggest swing games on the schedule were Florida and Missouri—played in Neyland Stadium on Oct. 4 and Nov. 22, respectively.
They remain huge.
Florida may be a lot better than it has been, but it proved in that game that its deficiencies from last year's 4-8 season are not completely cleared. Quarterback Jeff Driskel is still susceptible to giving away big plays, and a defense that was supposed to be the team's strength struggled versus UK.
Considering UT hasn't beaten the Gators in nine seasons, it's unlikely the Vols will be expected to win.
But with the game being played in Knoxville, there are very few reasons why UT should fear Will Muschamp's team.
Of all the negatives that come with playing so many youngsters, there is one bonus: Many of these kids have never lost to Florida before. The history is irrelevant—and the same can be said on the flip side with UK players devoid of the stigma that comes with losing to UT.
Missouri again has talent and speed, led by quarterback Maty Mauk, but the Tigers lost so much from last year's SEC East champion squad that it's difficult to know how they'll fare in SEC play.
Much more will be known about the Vols and Mizzou by the time they play the regular season's penultimate game, but MU has looked beatable.
Prediction
Tennessee has too many question marks right now to guarantee any wins, save the showdown with the Mocs. However, there are enough questions in a wide-open SEC East that optimism should abound on Rocky Top.
If UT can beat Chattanooga, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, that leaves the Vols needing to win just one of their four swing games to get a bowl berth.
It's a tough road for the Vols, but they are going to be a difficult draw for most teams they play, too.
If UT can find some things to help its run-blocking and keep Worley upright, it will become bowl-eligible. Getting injured receivers Von Pearson and Josh Smith as well as tight end Ethan Wolf back as quickly as possible is equally important.
Right now, the safe bet is on UT going 3-5 in league play.
While that's far from where the Vols want to be, it's a step in the right direction. Most importantly, it's a result that would see them in the postseason for the first time in four years.
Unless otherwise noted all statistics gathered from UTSports.com. All recruiting information from 247Sports.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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