San Francisco 49ers: How QB Drew Stanton Could Change the Arizona Cardinals Game

The Arizona Cardinals played the San Francisco 49ers close twice last season.  Their first encounter in San Francisco was competitive until the middle of the fourth quarter, and the rematch in Arizona came down to a field goal as time expired.  With the Cardinals sitting alone atop the NFC West at 2-0 and a loss technically meaning the 49ers no longer would control their own fate in the division, this is about as big as a Week 3 game can get.

Of course, both of those tight games came with Carson Palmer at quarterback for Arizona.  Palmer has a nerve issue in his shoulder and is out indefinitely.  That likely leaves Drew Stanton in at quarterback for this key divisional matchup.

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Drew Stanton is pretty much your definition of journeyman.  He’s started five games in his career, mostly in Detroit.  One of those games was actually against the 49ers, back in 2009.  He struggled, throwing three interceptions, and was benched for Daunte Culpepper in the fourth quarter.  Until last week, he hadn’t actually even appeared in a game since 2010.

Back in 2013, Bruce Arians was saying that he’d be fine with Stanton as their starting quarterback.  He was so fine with Stanton, in fact, that he immediately went out and traded for Carson Palmer the very next month.

How did Stanton do against the New York Giants last week?  Well, he has one point in his favor over Colin Kaepernick’s game last week, and that’s the fact that he didn’t turn the ball over.  When you’re stuck starting a backup quarterback, that’s the most important thing—you don’t want them to actively harm you.  Pair him up with a star receiver like Larry Fitzgerald, and you have enough semblance of a passing game to tread water and let the defense keep you in the game.

Looking back at the game, I actually thought Stanton didn’t look that bad.  He was only 14-of-29, so he had some accuracy issues, but for a backup quarterback, he looked alright.  He tends to hold the ball longer, which can be expected for a rusty quarterback—he’s less confident in his relationship with his receivers, and that causes him to hesitate a little bit longer than a more experienced player like Palmer would.

In the preseason, Stanton again looked average.  He was 27-of-38 for 341 yards, throwing a touchdown in each of the three games he played in.  What the 49ers are facing, then, is pretty much the textbook definition of a replacement passer.

How will that hurt the Cardinals?

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The addition of Palmer last season was a stabilizing factor for Arizona.  While no one is going to confuse him for Peyton Manning, Palmer really opened up Arizona’s passing offense last season.  In 2012, Arizona ranked 31st in passing offense according to Football Outsiders, thanks to the play of John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley.  Palmer brought them up to competence—they ranked 15th in the league last season.

Stanton’s not as good as Palmer is, but he’s a step or three above the Cardinals’ passing woes from two years ago.  If 49er fans are thinking that Palmer potentially missing the game is a deathblow for Arizona, they’re probably mistaken.

Unlike the terrible three from 2012, Stanton can hit a receiver in open space, and that’s where Larry Fitzgerald can help him.  Fitzgerald is going to play the Brandon Marshall role in this game, lining up across from Jimmie Ward in the slot and using his superior size, bulk and experience to simply out-physical Ward for the ball.  Stanton’s not going to be able to force the ball into a tight window, but he can deliver a ball to a receiver who can out-jump his defenders.

Overall, however, Stanton has flaws that the 49ers can focus on.  Against the Giants, Stanton was only accurate on 63 percent of his passes, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).  That’s better than his completion percentage thanks to three drops and one batted pass, but it’s less than inspiring.  Kaepernick, by comparison, has been accurate on 79.2 percent of his passes, and the worst qualified player in the league (Tom Brady, oddly enough) is at 60.8 percent.  That’s enough to pick apart the Giants defense, but the 49ers play a tougher system and will punish accuracy of that level.

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

It boils down to this: Even if Palmer were starting, I still believe the 49ers are the better team.  Yes, the Cardinals have looked better in their first two games thanks to a punishing defense, but it’s still very, very early.  The 49ers collapsed against the Bears last week but were a play or two away from winning that one as well—it took a once-in-a-season-level collapse for the team to fall from a 20-7 lead in the third quarter to a 28-20 loss at the end of regulation.  While that was horrible, it’s not likely to be the type of performance that repeats.

If Palmer plays, I think the fact that Arizona is a very good team plus the fact that they’re playing at home would be enough to have the Cardinals come out on top.  With Stanton in place, I’m less sure.

Still, the Cardinals played the 49ers close twice in a row last year, and it took everything the 49ers had to beat them as time expired in Arizona last season.  With NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith still out, is that enough to cost the 49ers the game?  After all, they’re better players than Carson Palmer ever was—could the so-far anemic pass rush give Stanton enough time to do just enough to pull this one off?

I’m going to stick to predicting Arizona wins this one out in the desert, but the opportunity to face a backup quarterback in a key division game might be exactly what the 49ers need after suffering a heartbreaking loss on Sunday Night.

Prediction: Arizona 23, San Francisco 20

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.