Ranking the Top 10 Shooting Guards in the NBA Heading into 2014-15
The shooting guard position has been the subject of much criticism over the past few years, as the talent pool had dried up and left a handful of stars looking over a large group of lesser players.
But that's no longer the case.
The traditional names are still making big impacts, but it's the young guns who are starting to assert control over this spot in the backcourt. Guys like Bradley Beal, fresh off a stellar postseason, and Klay Thompson, following up a gold-medal run with Team USA, are making names for themselves and climbing ever higher on the positional totem pole.
To be clear, potential doesn't matter for these rankings. Nor does the resume accumulated through past endeavors, except for the recent events that have helped shape current perception of these players.
We're ranking the NBA's 10 best shooting guards heading into the 2014-15 campaign, which is akin to figuring out how they stack up right now. These will inevitably change throughout the season, as some players decline and others rise to prominence.
But at the moment, "right now" is quite key.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
10. Dion Waiters
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Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Age: 22
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, 14.0 PER
Are we going to see first-half Dion Waiters or second-half Dion Waiters?
After the All-Star break, the 22-year-old 2-guard averaged an additional five points and one assist per game, a jump that can be partially credited to a slight uptick in playing time. But his efficiency also skyrocketed, as his field-goal percentage rose from 41.7 to 46 and his three-point percentage from 36.1 to 37.9. According to Basketball-Reference.com, his offensive rating actually elevated by nine points, which is an insane rise for an in-season change.
If Waiters can play like the second-half version of himself on a consistent basis, his spot in these rankings will follow the same pattern as his statistics. He absolutely has the talent necessary to be a stellar offensive player, but he's been too prone to slumps and fallen easy prey to roles not exactly conducive to his skill set.
Now, he's either going to be leading the charge as a sixth man (ideal) or playing fourth fiddle to LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving in the starting lineup (less than ideal). If his ego can take a hit—though serving as a star sixth man shouldn't require that—the Cavaliers will get even more dangerous.
And Waiters will finally live up to the hype.
Honorable Mentions: Alec Burks, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Wesley Matthews
9. Manu Ginobili
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Team: San Antonio Spurs
Age: 37
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 12.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.3 assist, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 20.0 PER
Father Time might be too slow to catch up with Manu Ginobili.
Even though he's now 37 years old, he's still set to make huge contributions for the San Antonio Spurs, dazzling crowds and the opposition with his creativity on the offensive end, his knack for knocking down big perimeter shots and his ability to hustle constantly no matter what role he's filling.
Ginobili's role is admittedly more limited now. He played only 22.8 minutes per game during the 2013-14 campaign, the fewest he'd received since his rookie season with the Spurs, which came all the way back in 2002-03.
But that just kept him fresh.
Ginobili was engaged and highly effective during the run he did receive, and the low-minute strategies allowed him to thrive during the postseason. During the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat, the veteran 2-guard averaged 14.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.2 blocks per contest while shooting 50 percent from the field and a scorching 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Ginobili doesn't have the youth necessary to play like that throughout a full regular season. Not if he wants to have any spring in his step for the inevitable postseason run.
But does he need to?
8. Arron Afflalo
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Team: Denver Nuggets
Age: 28
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 18.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.0 blocks, 16.0 PER
It's been a strange and circuitous ride for Arron Afflalo.
In the midst of becoming a high-quality player for the Denver Nuggets, he was traded to the Orlando Magic at the conclusion of the 2012-13 season, becoming a footnote in the Dwight Howard saga. After struggling to continue his development in his first year with the Magic, Afflalo excelled as a lead option this past season, submitting his name as a contender for an All-Star spot.
Now, he's back on the Nuggets.
Afflalo won't have a chance to control the rock as often as he did during his final go-round in Florida, but he will show off the fruits of his hard work over the last few years. He's now a deadly scorer from the outside who can also put up points from just about every spot on the court, and his defensive skills continue to outpace the attention they draw.
According to 82games.com, Afflalo held opposing 2s and 3s to respective player efficiency ratings of 15.7 and 14.6. Considering the lack of elite talent around him and his inherent offensive responsibilities, those numbers are actually misleadingly high.
7. Bradley Beal
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Team: Washington Wizards
Age: 21
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 14.3 PER
It's amazing how much impact one playoff series can have.
During the regular season, Bradley Beal was a phenomenal scorer from the outside, though he was still a fairly limited player once he ventured inside the arc. That second part should change with time—remember, Beal is only 21 years old—but the time frame seemed to accelerate rather dramatically during the postseason.
Against the stellar defense of the Chicago Bulls, a team laden with veterans and players uniquely designed to slow down the other squad's top scorers, Beal averaged 19.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game, doing so while shooting 44 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from downtown.
Then, he was nearly as good against the similarly suffocating defense of the Indiana Pacers.
During those six outings, the young up-and-comer averaged 18.7 points, 5.3 boards and 4.8 dimes, knocking down 41.2 percent of his looks and 38.7 percent of his deep attempts. Those are incredible numbers, and they indicate just how much faith the Wizards placed in Beal, youth and all.
During the 2013-14 campaign (the regular season, at least), Beal was not better than the two players he now ranks above. But he's only going to keep moving up the leaderboard as his career progresses.
6. Klay Thompson
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Team: Golden State Warriors
Age: 24
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 18.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 14.3 PER
If you ask Bill Duffy, Klay Thompson's agent, about his star client, he's not going to mince words, via USA Today's Sam Amick:
"I don't want (Los Angeles Lakers star) Kobe Bryant to go crazy, but there's some uncertainty as to who he is right now (because of injuries that limited him to six games last season). But I think Klay Thompson right now is the top two-way, two-guard in basketball. I think when you look at his body of work, when you look at what he accomplished guarding point guards on a regular basis (last season), I think it's pretty clear.
"
Except, it's not pretty clear.
Thompson is a fantastic shooter, one of the best in the league whether you want to break that down using the eye test or any assortment of metrics. He's also a rising defender, one capable of shutting down wing players and drawing rave internal reviews.
But the best two-way 2-guard? Not yet.
"Thompson has the talent to ascend the shooting guard ranks, but he isn't there yet. No one is," wrote Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley while analyzing the veracity of the Thompson advocacy. "For now, Duffy will have to take solace in the fact that he represents one of the finest two-way 2-guards in the business. As long as his words help his client net max-contract money, then the agent will have his done his job."
The biggest problem is his shot-creating ability.
As Nylon Calculus' Seth Partnow noted on Twitter, none of the NBA's top 50 scorers last season required assists on a higher percentage of their makes. He scores a lot, but his ability to find the bottom of the net is drastically lowered as soon as the ball touches the floor and forces him to dribble.
To show that another way, Thompson, who ranked No. 29 in points per game, checked in at No. 96 in Scorer Rating, a new metric developed by myself and Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta. He was hurt most significantly by that same extreme inability to create for himself
No player in the league had a bigger disparity between the two categories.
5. Lance Stephenson
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Team: Charlotte Hornets
Age: 24
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks, 14.7 PER
From a perspective based around traditional statistics, Lance Stephenson doesn't measure up to many of the players he ranks ahead of in this article. However, context is vitally important, because Stephenson was so often the only player on the court capable of creating his own offense for the Indiana Pacers.
In fact, his value is pretty easy to see when you take a gander at what the Pacers were able to do with him on and off the court, per Basketball-Reference.com:
| Stephenson On | 105.8 | 100.1 |
| Stephenson Off | 101.3 | 98.5 |
Even though the Pacers were better at preventing points when he was off the floor, it's hard to deny how effective he is on that end. He's a tenacious, hard-nosed player who isn't afraid of any matchup, nor is he unwilling to milk any advantage he thinks he can gain.
Sometimes, the antics overshadow the production. Sometimes, Stephenson gets overconfident and can shoot his team out of a game.
But now that he's in a more stable environment and will be tasked with being a third option for the Charlotte Hornets, he's only going to look better than ever.
4. Monta Ellis
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Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age: 28
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 19.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.8 PER
Monta Ellis finally figured it out.
In the past, he'd been far too eager to pull the trigger from the perimeter, but during the 2013-14 season, he was more hesitant to let fly when outside his range. Not only did that allow him to shoot 33 percent from beyond the arc and 45.1 percent from the field, but it forced him to play to his strengths.
When Ellis is at his best, he's a whirling dervish. Few players have this combination of speed, quickness, athleticism and body control, and the 28-year-old 2-guard uses it quite well when he bursts into the paint. He's fully capable of keeping his head up and his eyes peeled, scanning the perimeter for open shooters, but he can also finish circus shots quite well.
Plus, Ellis' increased willingness to drive into the teeth of a defense allowed him to make 5.2 trips to the free-throw line per game, where he converted his attempts at a 78.8 percent clip.
It's the way he's always been meant to play, and Rick Carlisle brought out the best in him.
Though it seems like Ellis has been around for a long time—and he has, seeing as he entered the league at just 20 years old—he's still improving.
3. DeMar DeRozan
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Team: Toronto Raptors
Age: 25
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 22.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 18.4 PER
Even though DeMar DeRozan was a first-time All-Star last season, he's nowhere near his ceiling.
A fantastic athletic with solid defensive chops, the 25-year-old is still developing his offensive game. Yes, despite averaging 22.7 points per game for the Toronto Raptors, he still has plenty of room for growth. That's largely due to his outside shooting, which isn't yet up to par, as well as his passing and ball-handling skills.
DeRozan has a confident stroke. He looks the part of a scorer when he rises and fires. However, his motion has been inconsistent, and the ball consistently clangs off the rim when he lofts up an attempt from the perimeter.
During the 2013-14 season, DeRozan shot 30.5 percent from downtown, doing so while taking 2.7 attempts per game. Both of those numbers are career highs, and both should fall during the ensuing campaign, as DeRozan has spent the offseason practicing with and playing for Team USA.
"'The plan' changes every summer, after much consultation between the two [DeRozan and his trainer since 2009—Chris Farr], with a different skill dissected in the lab—free-throw shooting, dribbling, outside shooting, post play and so on," writes Dave Zarum of SportsNet.ca. "And every fall, DeRozan walks into Raptors training camp a markedly better player than the year before."
This year should be no different, except DeRozan is already working with a significantly higher starting point.
2. Dwyane Wade
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Team: Miami Heat
Age: 32
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 19.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 22.0 PER
"I'll go to bat in that foxhole with Dwyane any day," Erik Spoelstra explained to Prince of SportingNews.com after the 2014 NBA Finals saw the San Antonio Spurs crowned champions. "It's funny how the narrative changes within a matter of days. Keep it in perspective. Ten days ago people were saying Dwyane was playing at the highest level he's played at in the last three years."
The narratives surrounding Dwyane Wade do seem to be incredibly fickle, but all of them tend to be grounded in at least a bit of reality.
When he's on the court, Wade still has the ability to play like the best shooting guard in the NBA, a status he's fought for throughout the majority of his career. He's fully capable of locking down on defense, though he fell into the habit of ball-watching far too often in 2013-14. He's also a dynamic offensive contributor, one who thrived in his role as a secondary or tertiary option for the Miami Heat.
Now, we get to see what happens when an aging Wade regains dominance of the ball in LeBron James' absence. Don't expect flashbacks to 2008, but don't be surprised when he leaves no doubt he's an enduring All-Star either.
In terms of a player's sheer ability to impact any one game, a healthy Wade ranks right at the top of his position. But the uncertainty of his continued effectiveness and the necessary rest days push his seasonal impact down far enough that he's firmly in the No. 2 spot.
1. James Harden
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Team: Houston Rockets
Age: 25
2013-14 Per-Game Stats: 25.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 23.5 PER
So many people have poked fun at James Harden's defense, or lack thereof. It's often easy to do, as Harden provides us with plenty of opportunities to laugh at his inability to move his feet, his utter disregard for help defense and that beard that must act like an anchor. Or something like that.
But how many have actually looked at his defense from an objective standpoint?
When I ranked the NBA's top 200 players, Harden actually fared better than I expected on defense, largely because he has the physical tools necessary to excel when he actually exerts the effort required. Similarly, Bleacher Report's Dylan Murphy penned a fantastic look at the 2-guard's potentially misleading defensive reputation:
"But Harden isn't quite as bad as he's made out to be on the defensive end. He's certainly shown flashes of capability, both in guarding players in isolation and working within the confines of a structured system.
Whether he can ever play with consistency is an entirely different question, and one only he can answer.
It all starts with effort.
"
The scary thing about Harden, though, is that he's arguably the league's best shooting guard even when he acts like he's just encountered Medusa while jogging back to play defense. His offensive skills, which have been much documented at this point, are just that good.
If Harden doesn't get better on the less-glamorous end, he'll be subject to constant challenges from the many young guns at the position. But if he starts to play like he actually cares about preventing points, he'll develop a stranglehold on this spot, one he won't relinquish for years to come.
Kobe Bryant: The Position's Biggest Question Mark
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If you know what to expect from Kobe Bryant, raise your hand.
OK, put those hands down. You're all pretending to know something you don't.
I was tempted to slot Bryant at No. 3 in this countdown, counting on his incredible work ethic, unmatched desire and skills that are only increasing with age. But doing so would be disrespectful to just about everyone involved—Bryant, because he has the ability to move back up to the No. 1 spot he occupied for years, and those behind him, because they've actually proved something over the last calendar year.
At this point, everything Bryant is doing is fighting against history.
He's a 36-year-old wing player attempting to shoulder a huge burden for a team that most rational fans don't expect to make much noise in a brutally tough Western Conference. Few players with that much wear and tear on their tires have been able to excel, and fewer still have done so while coming back from a pair of major injuries that limited them to only a cup of coffee during the previous season.
Then again, it's Bryant we're talking about. He's a man who's made a living out of defying the conventional expectations, imbuing his fanbase with confidence that he can overcome any difficulty and any obstacle at any time.
Going into what's likely his penultimate season, Bryant is as much a myth as he is a basketball player. Except he very well may be a myth steeped in factual support, a player eager to add to his ever-growing legend by overcoming the odds once more.
Until we know what to expect from Bryant—and I'd wager even he doesn't know exactly what to expect—ranking him off pure speculation is a foolish endeavor. He could easily reassert himself as the best shooting guard in the league. He could just as easily struggle to come back from his latest malady, take on a secondary role for the Los Angeles Lakers and finish the year as a top-10 shooting guard, but only by a slim margin.
For now, let's be content calling him the position's biggest question mark. Clarity, which can't be gleaned from a pretty empty resume over the last year, will follow a growing sample of games.
