Clemson Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The defending national champion Florida State Seminoles had trouble with the Clemson Tigers before last year and will try to win their 19th straight game overall when they meet again in this key ACC matchup Saturday.

The Seminoles are coming off a bye week and failed to cover in each of their first two games this season, while Clemson was also off after splitting its first two both straight up and against the spread.

This line has bounced down four points Wednesday at some sportsbooks after quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for the first half for some comments he made towards the student union.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 20.5-point favorites at Doak Campbell Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, but fell four points. The total was 63.5 midweek (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 49.9-29 Seminoles

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers had covered the previous four meetings with Florida State before last season’s 51-14 blowout loss, winning two of them straight up. After suffering a 45-21 loss to Georgia in the season opener as a 9.5-point underdog, Clemson turned in a dominant offensive effort in a 73-7 rout of South Carolina State before the bye, outgaining the Bulldogs by a 735-44 margin.

Quarterbacks Cole Stoudt and Deshaun Watson combined for 456 passing yards and four touchdowns for the Tigers in that game, while freshman wide receiver Artavis Scott scored twice on six receptions for 164 yards. That tuneup could give Clemson enough confidence to hang with the Seminoles despite their 1-8 straight-up run at FSU.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

While Florida State has failed to cover in both games so far this year, this is a conference game with a lot more on the line. The Seminoles went 6-2 against the spread in ACC play last season and really turned it on after their first off week a year ago, outscoring their next two opponents 116-13.

There’s no question this is one of the most talented teams in the country yet again; it’s just a matter of motivation, especially as the defending national and conference champs. Winston, last season’s Heisman Trophy winner, is coming off a sharp performance in a 37-12 win over The Citadel in Week 2, throwing for 256 yards and two touchdowns in less than a full game.

Winston erupted for 444 yards and four total touchdowns in last year’s meeting with the Tigers to outshine Clemson QB Tajh Boyd in a showcase game for both players that definitely helped fuel his Heisman campaign.

Smart Pick

With the point spread opening at nearly three touchdowns, it will be interesting to see if the line grows in the Seminoles’ favor. The Tigers are clearly not the same team they were last year, with a lot of younger players replacing upperclassmen who are no longer there.

Stoudt played in the last meeting for Clemson, while Watson—a former 5-star recruit, per Rivals.com—is viewed as the top QB prospect in the nation. Florida State is not the same either, and that showed in the team’s season opener against Oklahoma State. The Seminoles won 37-31 but failed to cover a similar spread at minus-18.

The Tigers are a better team than the Cowboys and should be able to stay within a couple of scores. But beware the line moves here as oddsmakers weigh the impact of the first-half suspension.

Trends

• Clemson is 1-8 SU in its last nine games when playing on the road against Florida State.
• Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing Clemson.

Note: All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates, and get the free odds tracker app.