Bowling Green Falcons vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Wisconsin Badgers return from their bye week hoping to break a five-game skid against the spread when they host the Bowling Green Falcons on Saturday.

The Badgers rebounded from a 28-24 loss to LSU in their season opener by routing Western Illinois 37-3 before their bye, but it still was not enough to beat the 41.5-point line, as they fell to 0-2 against the spread this year and 0-5 versus the number dating back to last year.

The line has skyrocketed 10 points since opening at 17 points on Sunday.

Point spread

The Badgers opened as 17-point favorites at Camp Randall Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, but the spread has soared to 27 points. The total was 64 midweek (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 46.7-29.5 Badgers

Why the Bowling Green Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons have also bounced back from a loss in their season opener, knocking off VMI and Indiana at home in their last two games and covering the spread both times. The victory against the Hoosiers was especially big considering the road team closed as an 8.5-point favorite yet lost 45-42 on a game-winning touchdown pass from quarterback James Knapke to wide receiver Roger Lewis with nine seconds remaining.

Lewis finished with 16 catches for 149 yards, while Knapke completed 46 of 73 passes for 395 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in his second career start to help Bowling Green beat a Big Ten team for the first time since 2007.

Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

Wisconsin is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the last three meetings with the Falcons and showed marked improvement on both sides of the ball from the loss to the Tigers in Week 1 to the team’s first win seven days later.

The Badgers even got a little lucky against the Leathernecks in Week 2 when they scored a safety to open the game on a botched kickoff.

They piled on five more touchdowns after that and outgained Western Illinois 456-162 in total yardage but still fell shy of covering the 41.5-point line. The spread this week against Bowling Green is far more manageable, and Wisconsin has averaged more than 43 points in the past three games between the teams.

Wisconsin usually wins at home and has covered six of eight spreads going back to last season here, according to the Odds Shark NCAA football database.

Smart Pick

The odds are slim that Bowling Green will beat a Big Ten team for the second consecutive week, especially playing on the road against a much better opponent this time.

The Falcons had the luxury of playing at home last week against Indiana, and that furious finish to beat the Hoosiers took a lot out of them down the stretch.

There were eight lead changes in the second half of that game alone, and Bowling Green will be hard-pressed to come up with another strong effort when it visits Camp Randall Stadium for the first time since 2005.

The Badgers had the week off to study their opponent and prepare for a two-game stretch at home against nonconference foes before they start Big Ten play.

Watch for them to win this one big against the Falcons and cover the spread for the first time this year.

Trends

• Bowling Green is 7-2 straight up in its last nine games.
• Wisconsin is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games at home.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.