NFL Power Rankings: Week 3 Standings Based on Latest Super Bowl Odds
Week 2 of the NFL season was crazy when you just look at things in a vacuum. However, when you look at it in the bigger picture, as the oddsmakers do each week, it becomes even more of a muddled mess trying to figure out who the Super Bowl contenders are.
Trying to parse through the madness that was last week while looking ahead to Week 3, we have an updated look at the power rankings based on how the oddsmakers have stacked up all 32 teams in the league.
It's not a scientific process, though it does have more merit than just a random list, because who has more invested in getting these things right than bookies? Their existence depends solely on knowing more than us.
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Here's a look at this week's power rankings, based on the latest Super Bowl odds.
No. 32: Oakland Raiders (500-1)
Times are still tough in Oakland. The Raiders have scored 14 points in each of their first two games, while the defense has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. It's going to be a long time before this franchise is relevant in the AFC West.
No. 31: Jacksonville Jaguars (500-1)
It turns out Jacksonville's first half against Philadelphia was an aberration. The Jaguars have since been outscored 75-10 in their last six quarters, making them the only team in the league to allow more than 63 points.
As far as the Blake Bortles era beginning, perhaps Gus Bradley knew to protect his rookie after watching Chad Henne get sacked 10 times against Washington.
No. 30: Kansas City Chiefs (200-1)
How the once mighty have fallen. It was October 29, 2013 when ESPN put the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at No. 1 in its weekly power rankings. After losing eight of their last 10 games and scoring just 27 points through two games this year, it's looking like a long season at Arrowhead.
Making matters worse is star running back Jamaal Charles suffering a high ankle sprain in a loss at Denver. Combine that with losing defensive stalwarts Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito the previous week, and the Chiefs' injury report is looking better than their active roster.
No. 29: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (200-1)
Remember when Josh McCown looked like a better option to start in Chicago than Jay Cutler? By his own admission, via Tom Krasniqi of 95.3 FM in Tampa, the jump balls that made him so successful last year with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall haven't been there.
It's also hard to know what impact Lovie Smith has made on the defense because the Buccaneers played Derek Anderson when Cam Newton couldn't go in Week 1 and Austin Davis in Week 2. We will find out this week when the Bucs travel to Atlanta for a date with Matt Ryan.
No. 28: St. Louis Rams (150-1)
Give the Rams credit for coming back with a strong effort on the road in Tampa after getting humiliated the week before at home against Minnesota. Unfortunately, Jeff Fisher's team still struggled to defend the run by allowing 144 yards to Bobby Rainey and now has to face the NFL's leading rusher, DeMarco Murray.
No. 27: New York Giants (150-1)
How does New York not fall in the same group as Oakland and Jacksonville right now? Oddsmakers pay attention to games and trends, but if you've watched the Giants, there's no way you can say they aren't one of the three worst teams in the league.
One week after being held to 197 total yards against Detroit, Tom Coughlin's offense bounced back with 341 yards and four turnovers to give Arizona backup Drew Stanton the ammunition he needed not to lose a game. As a reward, Eli Manning gets to face J.J. Watt this week.
Good luck.
No. 26: Tennessee Titans (100-1)
It turns out we learned more about Kansas City in Week 1 than we did about Tennessee, which had a chance to keep lifting itself up in Week 2 against what we assumed was a weak Dallas team. Instead, Murray ran all over the Titans defense for 167 yards.
Jake Locker remains a mystery from week to week, boasting one of the worst first-half performances you will see by quarterback rating, via Paul Kuharsky of ESPN:
But hey, at least Delanie Walker made a lot of fantasy owners happy with 10 catches, 142 yards and one touchdown.
No. 25: New York Jets (100-1)
New York's Week 2 loss at Green Bay is the kind of game that will haunt Rex Ryan for a long time if the Jets miss the playoffs by one game. The Jets led by 18 with six minutes to play in the first half and had a late touchdown that would have tied the game late in the fourth quarter negated by an errant timeout.
On the plus side, the Jets are playing the kind of style that made Ryan so successful in his first few years with the team. They lead the league in rushing and run defense. Now, if they can just put together a patchwork secondary.
No. 24: Minnesota Vikings (100-1)
The Teddy Bridgewater era can't start soon enough in Minnesota after watching Matt Cassel throw four interceptions against New England. Things aren't going to get better as the Vikings travel to New Orleans against an angry Saints team looking for its first win.
No. 23: Cleveland Browns (100-1)
For all the talk about Johnny Manziel being the savior before the season, Brian Hoyer has put the Browns in position to be 2-0. They wound up losing late at Pittsburgh, but they made enough plays late to win their home opener against New Orleans.
Hoyer isn't doing anything out of the ordinary, but he also isn't making big mistakes. Sometimes, there's a lot to be said about managing a game. The Browns can move over .500 with a win against division rival Baltimore on Sunday.
No. 22: Washington (66-1)
Kirk Cousins had his best day as an NFL quarterback against Jacksonville in relief of an injured Robert Griffin III, doing something Washington's starting QB has only done twice in two-plus seasons, via ESPN Stats and Info:
After Cousins' performance, Mike Wise of The Washington Post opened more floodgates by reporting that head coach Jay Gruden preferred him in this offense to Griffin. That may prove to be true in the future, though let's use caution by saying that Washington beat up on Jacksonville.
Let's see what happens this week at Philadelphia.
No. 21: Miami Dolphins (66-1)
The play-calling in Miami's loss at Buffalo was baffling. Even with the loss of Knowshon Moreno to a dislocated elbow, the Dolphins threw the ball 49 times and ran it 21 times one week after running the ball 38 times for 191 yards.
On the positive side, the Dolphins have a chance to get back over .500 with a matchup at home against Kansas City in Week 3.
No. 20: Dallas Cowboys (66-1)
You can feel the optimism start to rise in Dallas, though it's likely false hope because this team pulls a wizard act every year. The Cowboys have found a running game with Murray running over anyone in his way, which they took advantage of last week at Tennessee.
Jason Garrett actually made the right decisions last week by limiting Tony Romo to 29 pass attempts and running the ball 43 times. Of course, now that expectations are rising in Dallas, watch the Cowboys go out and lose on the road to St. Louis.
No. 19: Buffalo Bills (66-1)
We have to give the Bills credit for taking care of business in their first two games, though it seems like we are waiting for the bottom to drop out soon. It seems likely to happen soon because, according to Mike Rodak of ESPN.com, they are tied for 25th in third-down offense and 29th in red-zone offense.
Their running game has been terrific, led by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, so there's not as much pressure on EJ Manuel to throw for 250-300 yards every week. Sammy Watkins had his first great game as a pro, so the ceiling for Buffalo's offense is looking up.
No. 18: Pittsburgh Steelers (50-1)
Much like Jacksonville's first half in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh's first half against Cleveland in Week 1 looks like a fluke. Since taking a 27-3 lead in the first game, the Steelers have been outscored 50-9 and been flagged for 20 penalties.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said at a press conference on Tuesday, via the Associated Press (h/t USA Today), he's not worried about the lack of discipline on the field from his team.
"We're two games into this one," said Tomlin. "Hopefully by the time we're able to compare this year to last or any year for that matter over a 16-, 19-game schedule or 20-game schedule if you will (that) we'll have a better showing than we have to this point."
Going to Carolina on Sunday night is the Steelers' opportunity to prove the last 90 minutes of football have just been bad execution on their part and not a sign of something bigger going wrong.
No. 17: Atlanta Falcons (50-1)
We found out just how fine Atlanta's offense has to be in Week 2. New Orleans lit up the Falcons defense in Week 1, but Ryan threw for nearly 450 yards. Last week, he threw three interceptions, and the defense gave up 472 yards against Cincinnati.
The good news is Atlanta plays at home on a short week against a Tampa Bay team that hasn't shown anything on offense to suggest a breakout is coming.
No. 16: Detroit Lions (40-1)
Once again, we get sucked into the vortex known as the Detroit Lions. We drank the juice after they whacked the Giants in Week 1, with Reggie Bush telling Kevin Patra of NFL.com that Matthew Stafford is "elite."
Stafford reverted to his bad ways against Carolina in Week 2, with Albert Breer of the NFL Network highlighting the worst moment of the quarterback's day:
There are worse things to do than throw a ball up to Calvin Johnson, but Stafford tends to rely on that play so much that defenses are geared up to stop it. Detroit didn't blow a big lead to a bad team, so let's see the response this week against Green Bay before making any declarative statements.
No. 15: Baltimore Ravens (40-1)
Perhaps we underestimated how good the Bengals are, because the Ravens sure looked like a team that can make another push for the playoffs last week against Pittsburgh. They are showing weaknesses in pass defense, allowing 503 yards through two games, that can be exploited by teams with good outside weapons.
It's not going to happen this week against Cleveland, though the Browns have a running game that has given Pittsburgh and New Orleans fits.
No. 14: Indianapolis Colts (33-1)
Of the teams in the top half of the odds, Indianapolis seems the most tenuous given its position coming into the year. We've praised this team for making the postseason each of the last two years, though the front office has done a bad job of helping Andrew Luck.
However, we are seeing Luck isn't really progressing the way that everyone expected in his third year. He had 172 passing yards against Philadelphia on 34 attempts. Stephen Holder of The Indianapolis Star pointed out two of his most glaring mistakes this season:
"Remember the would-be end-zone interception the Eagles defender dropped Monday night?
And do you recall Luck forcing the ball into double coverage to Reggie Wayne on the last-ditch effort in the closing seconds against the Broncos? T.Y. Hilton got open at about the same time Luck delivered that fateful throw to Wayne, one that would be intercepted.
"
Indianapolis is going to go as far as Luck is able to carry it. So far in 2014, he hasn't played great, and the team, not surprisingly, has yet to win. Sometimes, things are that simple.
No. 13 Houston Texans: (33-1)
Houston is another one of those teams that's really hard to gauge. You have to give the Texans credit for winning their first two games, especially after losing 14 straight to end last season. However, the amount of credit depends on how you feel about Washington and Oakland.
Oddsmakers have Oakland as the worst team in the NFL, while Washington is just outside the bottom 10. We know what the defense is capable of thanks to the pass-rushing dynamo that is J.J. Watt, but does Ryan Fitzpatrick have the ability to go 16 games without making big mistakes?
No. 12: Arizona Cardinals (33-1)
Even though Drew Stanton gets credited with the win over New York in Week 2, the Giants really deserve credit for gifting a victory to the Cardinals backup quarterback. It also doesn't hurt when Ted Ginn returns a punt for a touchdown and Andre Ellington averages six yards per carry.
The bigger story for the Cardinals is Carson Palmer's shoulder. No one seems to know how long he will be out. Arizona's starting quarterback told Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic that there's no official timetable for his return.
"(Doctors) said my shoulder was stretched out and I landed on the nerve, shut the nerve down," Palmer said. "It's just one of those things you've just go to wait and hope it wakes up. There's no, 'it needs 48 hours. It needs six days, it needs 12 days.' You just don't know."
That's not what the Cardinals want to hear with San Francisco coming to town out for blood after a bad loss in Week 2.
No. 11: Chicago Bears (28-1)
Speaking of getting credit for wins, don't the Bears owe San Francisco and the officials a muffin basket after Sunday night? Brandon Marshall was credited with three touchdown catches, and Jay Cutler threw four touchdowns, but how many drives were kept alive by 49ers penalties on third down?
We are still waiting to see how good the Bears really are. We know the potential for this offense, but they haven't looked in sync through two weeks. Defensively, the secondary was opportunistic against Colin Kaepernick with three interceptions and a fumble recovery. That's how they will have to win on that side of the ball this year.
No. 10: Carolina Panthers (28-1)
For all the questions about Carolina's receiving corps entering the year, the players have looked good so far. Kelvin Benjamin is averaging 17.3 yards per reception, and tight end Greg Olsen remains a steady rock with 14 catches on 19 targets.
Oh yeah, the defense isn't bad either. Stafford averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt in Week 2, while the Lions could muster just 70 rushing yards on 18 carries. With New Orleans looking sluggish out of the gate, Carolina can create a lot of distance early with winnable games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore the next two weeks.
No. 9: San Diego Chargers (20-1)
How do you place the Chargers in any kind of power rankings list? They blew a fourth-quarter lead on the road against Arizona in Week 1 and then came back with a great all-around performance against the best team in the NFL last week.
San Diego has found the formula for beating elite teams. In victories over Denver last year in Week 15 and Seattle this year in Week 2, the Chargers controlled the ball more than 81 out of a possible 120 minutes. They ran the ball 81 times for 278 yards in those two games.
Now, if only they could figure out how to play that way week after week, we would be talking about one of the best teams in football.
No. 8: New Orleans Saints (18-1)
It would be easy to say that the Saints have no business in the top 10 after losing their first two games of the season. Yet, this is who they are. Winning on the road has not been easy for them recently, going 3-5 last year and 0-2 so far this season.
The defense has always been a liability that was covered up last year because Rob Ryan's blitz-heavy scheme caused problems for opposing quarterbacks.
ESPN's Trey Wingo provides hope for Saints fans who are ready to throw in the towel on 2014 after two devastating losses to start the year:
This week at home against Minnesota will be about getting back on track more than learning about where the Saints are. If they lose this game, then you can give up hope.
No. 7: Cincinnati Bengals (16-1)
It's only two games, and the regular season hasn't been his big problem, but Andy Dalton has completed nearly 66 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Nevertheless, the Bengals haven't been lighting it up on offense with five field goals in Week 1 and 3.0 yards per carry against Atlanta in Week 2.
Their secondary has been playing a bend-don't-break style, allowing 541 yards through the air. Cincinnati has a winnable game at home against Tennessee and then a two-game stretch against New England and Carolina following the bye that will show us how far the team has come.
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-1)
Week 2 against Chicago was as bad as the 49ers have looked in the Jim Harbaugh era, particularly in the second half. They were charged with 16 penalties for 118 yards in the game. For comparison's sake, the defense allowed a total of 216 yards.
Kaepernick had one of those games that proved his skeptics right. His accuracy, despite completing 61.8 percent of his passes, was all over the place with high throws and bad reads that led to three interceptions and a lost fumble.
The glass-half-full analysts will note that Kaepernick had three interceptions in Week 2 last year against Seattle and turned out fine. We will see if the offense can hold up its end of the bargain this week in a key early-season NFC West matchup at Arizona.
No. 5: Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
How important has Darren Sproles been to Philadelphia through two games? He leads the team with 11 receptions and 166 receiving yards and is averaging nearly seven yards per carry. The diminutive back also helped mask Nick Foles' issues throwing the ball outside to wide receivers in the first half against Indianapolis, via ESPN Stats and Info:
Eventually, Foles will have to get better for the Eagles to be title contenders. For now, though, they are 2-0 and leading the NFC East.
No. 4: Green Bay Packers (12-1)
Does anyone feel better about the Packers after Week 2? They were down 21-3 at home against the Jets, got saved late in the game by an errant timeout call from someone on New York's sideline and have allowed 353 rushing yards through two games.
Aaron Rodgers has hidden the many flaws of this team for the last three years, but there are limits to how much he can do. With three divisional games over the next three weeks, Green Bay can create some distance by the first week of October.
No. 3: New England Patriots (8-1)
At what point do we accept that New England's best course of action on offense is establishing the run to open up the pass? Tom Brady wasn't good in Week 1 trying to throw the ball down the field and scaled things back to throw 22 passes in a blowout against Minnesota.
In doing so, the Patriots were able to run the ball 37 times for 150 yards. It's not a landmark win by any means, but it did prove that Bill Belichick's club is at its best when controlling the pace of the game on the ground.
No. 2: Seattle Seahawks (9-2)
For just the second time since the start of 2013, Seattle's defense allowed 30 points in a game. It's not a trend that is likely to continue, though if there is another team capable of putting up a lot of points against an elite defense, it's Denver.
The best thing you can say for Seattle's loss is Richard Sherman finally got into the action, apparently getting exposed in the process.
On offense, there was nothing wrong with Seattle's performance in San Diego. Russell Wilson had two touchdowns and 8.1 yards per attempt. The Seahawks averaged eight yards per carry. They just didn't have any time to make things happen because the Chargers controlled the ball for so long.
No. 1: Denver Broncos (9-2)
Even though the Broncos won't say it publicly, Week 3 at Seattle is the litmus test to determine if everything they did in the offseason worked. They got manhandled in the Super Bowl by the Seahawks, and signed Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware in order to get more physical.
By the way, Wes Welker's suspension has been lifted, and he will be on the field in Week 3, via the Broncos' official Twitter:
One area the Broncos have to get better at in a hurry is in the second half. They've scored 45 of their 55 points in the first 30 minutes. That's fine when you are playing at home against teams like Indianapolis and Kansas City, but that won't cut it on the road in Seattle.
Note: Odds via OddsShark.com.
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