Realistic Expectations for P.J. Hairston's Rookie Season with Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets struggled mightily on the perimeter in their final go-around as the Bobcats last season, so it was no secret that general manager Rich Cho was targeting help on the wings. It was clear as day that with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker excelling at center and point guard, the only way this team could reach the next level was with more threats from the outside.

Lance Stephenson was the big splash in free agency, Noah Vonleh was the big one in the draft, and both made P.J. Hairston somewhat of a forgotten man.

Only five teams hit fewer threes than Charlotte's 516 last season, and that was before the team lost three of its top four scorers from long-range in Anthony Tolliver, Josh McRoberts and Chris Douglas-Roberts to free agency. Those three combined for 258 threes last year, or more than half of the team's total output.

Because of the losses, there is definitely a role available for Hairston to seize. The talented and enigmatic former development league star will not have an easy go of things, but he should be able to find a niche if he can accept a lesser role and also stay out of trouble.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Hairston's biggest strength is his ability to shoot the rock. He plays with extreme confidence on the offensive end and is not shy about putting it up from anywhere due to his quick release and strong elevation on his jumper.

He averaged 21.7 points in the D-League last season with the Texas Legends. He showed no hesitation in letting it fly, as shown by his 7.8 attempts a game from long range, however, he displayed more of a willingness to attack the rim. He converted 87 percent from the line at 5.6 attempts a night, showing a better understanding for the NBA game.

If Hairston is to become a great NBA player, he is going to need to use his thick frame to draw contact. He has a tendency to fall in love with the trey, and he knows it.

“Shot selection is something I definitely need to work on,” Hairston told a Charlotte reporter (via Vavel) after one summer league contest,  “If I hit a couple I feel like I need a heat check or something. And that’s when I realize I need to be patient.”

He has a couple of other offensive weapons in his arsenal such as a step-back jumper and an underrated post game when facing smaller defenders. The problem is finding out when to use them. He also chucked up 51 threes in seven summer league games and only hit 18 of them.

Defensively, Hairston has yet to show the consistent effort that he exerts on offense. There is no better coach to change that than Steve Clifford.

There is no questioning Hairston's scoring ability, but he is still a raw and somewhat unknown talent that has a lot of skill to refine.

Realistic Expectations

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What was arguably Charlotte's weakest position last season might be its best this time around. The Lance Stephenson acquisition was huge, and having a full year of Gary Neal helps immensely. Jeff Taylor will also be returning from his Achilles injury to play minutes at both wing positions. Hairston is just the icing on the cake.

Unfortunately for Hairston, it is difficult to imagine him being anything more than the icing, at least early on. Frankly, there are not enough minutes to go around. Ten or 15 minutes a night seem like a reasonable expectation for Hairston barring any injuries or white-hot shooting on his part. There are simply too many bodies for him to compete with.

When he does play, it will benefit him to have a small amount of pressure on him. He has a good coaching staff in place, solid veteran mentors who can bring him along slowly, and the comfort of playing close to his hometown of Greensboro. 

On paper, this is a great fit for Hairston. Clifford will definitely make him into at least an average defender at some point, but as a rookie he might fill a similar role to the one Tolliver had last season.

The Stephenson and Brian Roberts additions solve some of the problems Charlotte had last year with ball-handling and distributing, two areas where Hairston needs fine-tuning. That means he can do what he does best. Let it fly.

Statistically, if given the aforementioned minutes he should be able to net around six or seven points a game. His D-League and NCAA history suggest he will not make a huge impact in the peripheral categories, but those are nuances that will come along with his growth. For now, he is in a good situation that will allow him to simply do what he does best while allowing the rest of his game to grow.

Charlotte is not the same franchise it was when it had to swing for the fences on draft picks like Sean May and Adam Morrison. There is a foundation here built to get the most out of its high draft picks. Hairston will not be setting the world on fire out of the gate, but he will be just fine.