Breaking Down Boston Celtics' Small Forward Position for 2014-15 Season
When the Boston Celtics dealt Paul Pierce in 2013 they knew they were opening up some questions about their small forward position, but they likely didn’t expect the position to be this much of a mystery.
A late-season surge in 2012-13 seemed to cement Jeff Green as the starter of the future, but a lackluster season as a first option has created some problems for Boston's wing situation.
In today’s Eastern Conference it is nearly impossible to be competitive without a quality small forward.
On any given night you could be up against LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Luol Deng, Paul Millsap or even Pierce himself.
The position may not be quite as stacked as it once was, but it is still very deep.
The Celtics will inevitably have issues this season (shooting and rim protection specifically), but right now the small forward spot could go either way.
If Green has a bounce-back season and they get an unexpected contribution from the bench, then the 3 could be a strength for the C’s, but that is far from a given.
Let’s break down how the small forward position looked last season, what adjustments were made and what we can expect with 2014-15 rapidly approaching.
2013-14 Grade
Green was expected to breakout with his first featured role, but he never quite found a rhythm.
His averages of 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists were solid, but they came on just 41.2 percent shooting from the floor.
Green has the athletic ability to dominate by attacking the basket, but he spent too much time settling for mid-range jumpers.
As you can see from his shot-chart heat map (below), Green is at his best either gunning threes or driving to the hole.
Too often he would catch a pass, the possession would stall and he would fire up a contested 18-footer.
He also didn’t do much as a playmaker despite having the ball in his hands more.
Green is not an elite facilitator and can’t do much out of the pick-and-roll. He’s better off making one quick, decisive move off the dribble and driving to the lane.
Green was actually better last season at the 4 than the 3.
His PER at small forward was just 13.1, while he posted a 17.3 PER at power forward, according to 82games.
Still, Green’s performance wasn’t all bad. He did manage to hold opposing 3s to a 14.3 PER, which is below the league average, per 82games.
Unfortunately, he didn’t exactly receive much help from the Boston bench.
Second-year swingman Chris Johnson had some moments as a 3-and-D wing, but he isn’t particularly polished offensively.
His corner shooting is valuable for a Boston team that needs spacing, but it’s unlikely he makes huge strides this offseason.
However, his effort cannot be praised enough.
ESPN Boston’s Chris Forsberg wrote: “But what stood out above all was simply Johnson's infectious energy that rubbed off on his teammates whenever he was on the court…”
The same cannot be said for Gerald Wallace, whose lethargic 2013-14 season ended early due to knee surgery.
Wallace’s athleticism has been declining for years, but he was absolutely horrendous in his first season with the Celts.
“Crash” averaged just 5.1 points, 3.7 boards and 2.5 assists. He did work as a secondary ball-handler, but his refusal to shoot made him more harmful than helpful.
Now is the time to remember that Wallace will be earning $20.2 million through 2016.
Overall, the small forward position was not Boston’s weakest, but it hardly inspired confidence.
Final Grade: C+
Offseason Changes
The Celtics had a quiet offseason overall, but they did at least take some steps to shore up the 3.
First, they drafted Kentucky swingman James Young with the No. 17 pick in the 2014 draft.
Young isn’t ready to play much this season, especially after missing Orlando Summer League, but he has intriguing upside.
The 6’6” Young averaged 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.7 dimes as a freshman and showed a penchant for attacking the paint.
Unfortunately, he still has a long way to go on his jumper.
Hailed as a marksman coming into school, Young made just 34.9 percent of his threes in college, a number that is likely not to improve as he transitions to NBA threes.
Young, who is just 19 years old and 215 pounds, needs to gain weight before he can log time at the 3.
Right now he would have no chance covering stronger wings who can play down low.
The player likely to make a more immediate impact is Evan Turner, who joined Boston after costing himself untold millions during his depressing stint with the Indiana Pacers.
Turner averaged just 7.1 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists on 41.1 percent shooting in 27 games with Indy and was a complete non-factor in the postseason.
He should be better in Brad Stevens’ system, but his lack of outside shooting is a real problem.
Turner has hit just 32.6 percent of his three-pointers during his career.
As you can see from his shot-chart heat map (below), he’s decent from the corners but a non-threat from everywhere else.
That makes it difficult to foresee him sharing the court much with Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley, which limits his potential playing time.
Turner does bring athleticism, which the C’s will need to utilize, and the ability to create shots for himself and others.
There is a chance that Turner is able to thrive in the secondary playmaker role, which Green never quite mastered.
Turner is also capable of playing 2-guard, but since Boston’s backcourt is already crowded he should spend most of his time at the 3.
Turner’s agent, David Falk, told The Boston Globe’s Gary Washburn he believes the Turner-Boston marriage will be successful.
"I think Brad [Stevens] had an opportunity to take a player with a high skill set and a very strong desire to prove what happened in Indiana was a mistake. I think that Brad has a chance to put him in the right sets and have a great bargain in free agency.
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Besides the additions of Turner and Smart the Celtics didn’t do much but tweak around the margins.
Final Grade: B-
2014-15 Projection
At 28 years old, it’s pretty safe to say we know what kind of player Green is.
He may have an uptick in efficiency, but he’s not going to magically morph into a 20-point scorer or a top-tier defender.
That said, he’s the unquestioned starter and will probably log 30-34 minutes per game.
Boston will use him a little as a small-ball 4, but the Celtics have a glut of power forwards as is, so he won’t see more than a few minutes.
The C’s offense will run less through Green with a healthy Rondo and Marcus Smart ready to play right away, but he should still be the team’s leading scorer and shot-taker.
Turner will start the year on the bench but has the potential to move into the starting lineup if either Bradley or Green struggles or if a trade shakes up the geometry of the roster.
Via NBA.com, there were rumors during 2013-14 that Boston wanted to ship out Green, but that is easier said than done since he is owed $18.9 million through 2016.
If the C’s did move Green, Turner would likely step in as the starting 3.
Boston may try to feature Wallace a little to see if it could find a taker for his contract, but it’s more likely he finds himself buried on the bench.
It simply doesn’t make sense for a young, rebuilding team to be giving a declining veteran meaningful minutes.
Young won’t be playing much either, unless the C’s roster is ravaged by injuries or the team begins the year even worse than expected.
Overall, the small forward position shouldn’t change too much barring a trade.
Green will be the starter, and though the depth behind him has been tweaked it won’t make a hugely meaningful difference in 2014-15.
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