ACC's Upset Weekend Does Not Help FSU's College Football Playoff Chances

Outside of Boston College's upset win over USC, it was not a good Saturday for the ACC, and that’s probably putting it mildly.

One week after handing Ohio State its first home loss since 2011, No. 17 Virginia Tech took a big step back, suffering a 28-21 loss to AAC foe East Carolina. Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch provided coach Frank Beamer's comments on the game:

No. 21 Louisville, expected to be one of the best teams in the ACC Atlantic Division, was defeated 23-21 at Virginia, which was 2-10 a year ago. The Courier-Journal's Jeff Greer shared Bobby Petrino's thoughts on the game, via Twitter, as he took responsibility for not preparing his players:

Of course, the best showing for the conference occurred in Chestnut Hill, as Steve Adazzio’s Eagles shredded the ninth-ranked Trojans on the ground to the tune of 452 yards and five touchdowns. Quarterback Tyler Murphy ran the read-option to perfection as he dazzled with 191 rushing yards and a score. 

But others didn't fare so well. 

Wake Forest traveled to Utah and lost to Mountain West mainstay Utah State 36-24. And Georgia Tech needed a Justin Thomas touchdown pass to Deon Hill with 23 seconds remaining to survive new FBS member Georgia Southern 42-38 after blowing every bit of a 35-10 lead.

Virginia Tech and Louisville will likely both fall out of next week’s Top 25 rankings, which is bad news for a league that entered this week with four teams in The Associated Press Top 25 (Florida State and Clemson are off this week before playing each other next week).

And that’s bad news for the Seminoles, in particular. 

Steve Helber/Associated Press

While the defending national champions remain in solid position for the first College Football Playoff, their margin of error just decreased dramatically.

Strength of schedule is a major consideration of the College Football Playoff selection committee: The College Football Playoff website lists it as the No. 2 protocol behind a conference title. A weaker ACC hurts the Seminoles.

Louisville was perhaps the toughest game left on FSU’s schedule. The Seminoles visit the Cardinals on Oct. 30 for an ESPN-televised Thursday night game.

And while the Hokies remain contenders in the wide-open ACC Coastal Division, a loss will hurt their overall perception should they face Florida State in the ACC title game.

STEVEN CANNON/Associated Press

The Seminoles host Clemson next week, but with an FSU win Clemson will be a two-loss team three weeks into the season.

No. 11 Notre Dame visits Tallahassee on Oct. 18, but it is entirely possible that the Fighting Irish will be the last ranked team that FSU faces this season, including the ACC title game.

November opponents Florida and Miami could climb into the rankings by the time they take on FSU, but that’s not a given.

An undefeated Florida State team would certainly qualify for the College Football Playoff, but should the Seminoles slip up, would they still be picked over, say, a one-loss SEC, Big 12 or Pac-12 team? We don’t know, but it’ll be an interesting quandary.

FSU’s best path to the College Football Playoff? Just win, baby. Anything less could lead to serious trouble come December.