Lions vs. Panthers: Breaking Down Carolina's Game Plan
After a respectable 20-14 win in Tampa Bay over the division rival Buccaneers in Week 1, the Panthers return home on Sunday for a matchup with the Detroit Lions, who thrashed the New York Giants, 35-14, in their season opener.
With just one week of football in the books, we're still looking for a larger sample size to judge just how good each of these 1-0 teams is and determine what their true strengths are. This game should provide a great measurement of how well each team is playing because both the Panthers and Lions seemed to be a few steps ahead of their Week 1 opponents in terms of talent and team chemistry.
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Attacking the Lions Defense
The Lions defense was unexpectedly dominant against the Giants, allowing just 197 total yards and forcing two turnovers (both interceptions). But will the same defense show up against the Panthers?
There are two ways to go about explaining Detroit's success in shutting down the Giants offense in Week 1. One is that the Giants offense is in shambles with a shaky offensive line and a quarterback whose career is spiraling downwards at an unprecedented pace; the other is that Detroit's patchwork secondary and Suh-dependent front seven have actually pulled their act together and turned an average defense into one of the league's best.
For now, I'm going to lean on the merits of the former explanation, and there are several reasons why.
The Lions, who were ranked 14th by Football Outsiders in defensive efficiency last season, didn't add talent during the offseason—rather, they attempted to replace it.
Free safety Louis Delmas and defensive end Willie Young, two of the better starters on their defense in 2013, are now gone and replaced with James Ihedigbo and Jason Jones, respectively.
Both moves have made the Lions even stronger against the run—as we saw when they allowed just 2.4 yards per carry on 22 attempts to the Giants—but have made them more susceptible through the air, as Jones isn't much of a pass-rusher and Ihedigbo isn't much of a playmaker in coverage.
Through the Air
The Lions pass rush was already lacking (ranked 28th in sacks in 2013), so Cam Newton should have plenty of time in the pocket if the offensive line performs as well as it did against the Buccaneers, when they held their opponent to just one sack and four quarterback hits.
The most obvious beneficiary of the increased time in the pocket, other than Newton of course, will be receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who is the team's best deep target at this point.
Allowing Benjamin—who has better long speed than lateral agility—more time to get downfield or to improvise if Newton leaves the pocket could wreak havoc on a Lions secondary that lacks the shutdown cornerback or competent safety play to contain the 6'4" rookie.
More time in the pocket should also mean less risk of re-injury for Newton, who is coming off of offseason ankle surgery and, more recently (preseason Week 3), a fractured rib. He should have room to run on the edge, but he'll be wise to play it safe and slide until his body feels back to 100 percent from head to toe.
On the Ground
The Panthers should find far more resistance to their run game against the Lions, whose defensive line features several excellent run-stoppers including Suh, defensive tackle Nick Fairley and defensive end Ziggy Ansah.
Behind them, linebackers Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy are always active against the run, and the safety Ihedigbo specializes in run support.
Due to the presence of these players, the Panthers will mainly look to pound the ball off-tackle to the side opposite Ansah. The Lions secondary isn't particularly athletic or adept at open-field tackling, so if the Panthers are lucky enough to break through the initial line of defense, running backs DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart could break open a big one.
Stopping the Lions Offense
The Lions offense is loaded with talent at the skill positions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford can be an unpredictable gunslinger at times, but he possesses as much physical ability as any quarterback in the league; star receiver Calvin "Megatron" Johnson is arguably the best at his position in the NFL right now; and running backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are both versatile backs with complementary skill sets.
Detroit's no-name offensive line is one of the league's best in pass protection and, although they could stand to add a strong run-blocking tackle, they do an adequate job of getting a push in the run game, especially in power situations.
Through the Air
The Lions have an explosive passing game due to their trio of receivers: Johnson, Bush and free-agent addition Golden Tate. Alright, you got me, Bush isn't technically a receiver, but he's just as dangerous playing from the slot as he is when he lines up in the backfield and is Stafford's top safety blanket behind Johnson.
The Panthers proved that they can contain larger receivers like the 6'5" Megatron when they held the Buccaneers' three starters of equal height—tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans—to just 10 catches, 99 yards and no touchdowns on 20 targets last week.
Melvin White and Antoine Cason both have the physicality to match up well with Johnson, but the Panthers don't have the rangy safety to prevent him from beating the defense deep with his blazing speed, so they'll have to create pressure up front to get Stafford out of rhythm early.
The Panthers were the top pass-rushing team in the league last season, and they return with even more pass-rushers. So if any team can exploit a stout Lions offensive line, it's this front seven.
On the Ground
The Lions have a two-headed monster of their own in the backfield between the consistent Bell and explosive Bush.
Detroit tends to get the ball to whichever back has the hot hand, and that could be Bush this week.
The Panthers defense tends to be prone to the big play against the run—despite their overwhelming talent among their front seven—because they lack speed at the safety position. A prime example of this deficiency came when Tampa Bay fullback Jorvorskie Lane lumbered for a 54-yard run in the first quarter of the season opener.
In order to break open a long-gainer, however, Bush will have to find a hole between the tackles, as the Lions struggled to run off-tackle in Week 1 and all of last season, and Carolina's athletic defensive ends and outside linebackers do an excellent job of setting the edge against the run.
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