
Jets vs Packers: What Are Experts Saying About Green Bay?
The Green Bay Packers look to bounce back from an embarrassing season opener in Seattle which dealt them an ugly loss on a national stage. The New York Jets, meanwhile, look to continue to build on a solid Week 1 performance that left them ranked No. 1 in both rushing offense and defense.
Green Bay's run defense looked like its worst-performing unit last week, and one of the big questions heading into their home opener against the Jets is whether the unit can stand up to the one-two punch of Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory, who amassed nearly all of the Jets' 212 total yards on the ground in Week 1.
With middle linebacker Brad Jones sidelined on Sunday, as Paul Imig of Fox Sports first reported, Green Bay will get a chance to see if Jones' play has been the weak link for the run defense.
Meanwhile, on the offensive line, ESPNWisconsin's Jason Wilde reported that Bryan Bulaga is questionable and if he cannot go, the Packers will have to put their faith in Derek Sherrod at right tackle. His play wasn't encouraging in Week 1.
Let's round up what some of the experts in Green Bay are saying about the matchup and expand on those thoughts by breaking down what to expect Sunday.
Rob Reischel: Green Bay's Offensive Line Is in Shambles
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Rob Reischel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel isn't sure that the Packers' offensive line can hold up against the Jets. It's not hard to see why.
"Green Bay's unit is in shambles. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga (MCL) is the latest to go down, and his status for the week is uncertain. If Bulaga can't go, overmatched Derek Sherrod will make his first-ever start Sunday.
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After Bulaga was injured in the second quarter against the Seattle Seahawks, Sherrod stepped in and played 42 of the 62 total offensive snaps, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
It wasn't pretty. Two of Aaron Rodgers' three sacks taken were directly attributable to Sherrod, with an additional two hurries. According to ESPN.com's Rob Demovksy, on the first sack only 1.95 seconds passed between the snap and when Cliff Avril made contact with Rodgers. On the second, Michael Bennett was there in just 2.5 seconds.
The offensive line had a pass-blocking efficiency rating, which Pro Football Focus uses to measure hits, hurries and sacks relative to how many snaps a line is in pass protection, of 79.9 in Week 1, which was 20th in the league.
The pass protection needs to improve in Week 2, and if Bulaga is out, Sherrod needs to be better.
Paul Imig: It Won't Get Any Easier for Packers' Run Defense
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As Paul Imig of Fox Sports Wisconsin noted, the Packers finished Week 1 with nearly the league's worst performance in run defense, whereas the New York Jets' 212 rushing yards in Week 1 was good for first place.
"It's just one game, but Green Bay enters Week 2 as the NFL's 31st-ranked run defense. And it won't get any easier for the Packers, as the New York Jets exited their Week 1 win as the league's top-ranked rushing offense.
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Should Green Bay truly be concerned about Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory gashing the run defense the same way Marshawn Lynch did in Week 1?
Well, first of all, one week hardly makes a statistically significant ranking, so don't make too much of the "No 1. rushing offense vs. No. 31 run defense" storyline. Green Bay had a tough matchup against Seattle's ground game in Week 1, but it also looked underprepared and outplayed.
With Brad Jones out Sunday, the Packers have an opportunity to see if his play brought down the entire middle. If Jamari Lattimore steps in and improves, Jones might struggle to hold onto the starting job.
Nose tackle Letroy Guion's play was troublesome against Seattle, and it looks as though Mike Pennel will get a chance to start in his place. With those two personnel changes at key positions in the front seven, Green Bay should turn in a better performance in Week 2 as long as the coaching and play-calling is effective.
Rob Demovsky: Packers Need to Work on Missed Tackles
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ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky broke down what may be behind the Packers' continued scourge of missed tackles, and it comes down to technique.
"The Packers have refocused on tackling after missing 18 of them against the Seahawks. That is far too many for any defensive coordinator's liking. The problem is, it's hard to work on tackling in practice with the limited amount of contact that is allowed these days. Maybe that is not what the Packers need to fix the problem anyway, considering coach Mike McCarthy said it was more of a footwork issue. The Packers can't have defenders leaving their feet to try to make tackles. That won't work against anyone, and it certainly won't work against dynamic running backs.
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Missed tackles was one of the biggest problems the Packers dealt with in 2013, the others being injuries and a lack of takeaways. The worrisome aspect of the missed tackles issue is that, even though the personnel in Dom Capers' scheme have changed, the missed tackles have continued.
Though the defensive play-calling has deserved its share of criticism, there are some instances in which it comes down to poor mechanics by players.
The Packers missed 18 tackles in Week 1. Per Pro Football Focus, Brad Jones and Casey Hayward had the most, with three each. The secondary accounted for seven, while the front seven had 11.
With Guion likely being replaced by Pennel and Jones out in Week 2, that eliminates four of the team's missed tackles from last week. Hopefully their replacements don't follow suit. Hayward's performance was uncharacteristic and it seems unlikely that he'll continue to be a repeat offender.
Tyler Dunne: The Packers, Dom Capers Will Continue to Use 4-3 Defensive Front
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Yes, that was a 4-3 defensive front you saw the Packers unleash opening night against Seattle, and as Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted, that will continue.
"It sounds like the Packers will be using both fronts this season and roll with whatever works, but the personnel (with Julius Peppers) is suited for a 4-3. ...Capers will stick with the 4-3 to some extent against New York, which might be a problem against such a great running team like New York.
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When Ted Thompson signed Julius Peppers in free agency, many wondered how Green Bay would fit him into its existing 3-4 scheme. Come Week 1, they had their answer: Rather than fit Peppers into a 3-4, the Packers would fit the rest of their personnel into a 4-3.
Of course, now they have the personnel for a 4-3 to make sense. They got smaller along the front, electing not to re-sign Johnny Jolly and Ryan Pickett. That's why when B.J. Raji got injured, it wasn't catastrophic—when they're running the 4-3 or nickel sub-packages, they won't need as many big bodies up front.
However, the 4-3 didn't look overly stout against the run versus Seattle, and Capers needs to be willing to make adjustments and, as Dunne said, roll with what works against New York.
Tom Silverstein: Expect the Packers to Move Cobb Around
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Disappointed with the vanilla plays on which Green Bay used Randall Cobb in Week 1? Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel thinks he'll be more dynamic in Week 2.
"There was a lack of imagination in the Seattle game. It was a calculated move to deal with the crowd noise and it backfired. I'm pretty sure you'll see the Packers go back to their normal scheme this week against the Jets. I would expect Cobb to be moved around to create better match-ups.
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Cobb played 57 of the 62 total offensive snaps against Seattle. He was targeted nine times and had six receptions. According to Pro Football Focus, Cobb found the most success up the middle, where he had a 23-yard pickup. Rodgers had the highest passer rating (135.4) throwing to him over the middle within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
One-hundred percent of Cobb's routes in Week 1 were run out of the slot, per Pro Football Focus. Though the majority of his routes were run from the slot in his decreased playing time in 2013, he was also used all around the field to get more advantageous matchups.
As Silverstein said, the Packers kept it simple in Seattle to combat the crowd noise, but expect them to be a little more dynamic with their play-calling at home against the Jets.
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