5 Potential Dark-Horse NBA Playoff Teams for 2014-15 Season
In the long, unbroken quiet of the NBA offseason, a man can get to thinking strange thoughts—thoughts that, if examined at another time of year, might seem a little crazy.
Thoughts like this: The Milwaukee Bucks might make the playoffs.
Now, might is the operative word here. And nobody's saying a team that won a measly 15 games last year is likely to crash the postseason party. But as the memory of the preceding season fades and attention turns to draft picks, free-agent moves and hopeful good health, the impossible starts to seem possible.
Besides, an NBA playoff bracket populated by usual suspects isn't any fun at all, which is why the occasional out-of-nowhere postseason entrant is so exciting to dream about.
You need those underdogs, those surprisingly resurgent teams, those ready-before-anyone-expected upstarts. Sure, they tend to get chewed up and spat out in a brutal first-round matchup with a superpower. But we're not out to name dark-horse title contenders who can actually win a series or two; this is just about clubs that could make the postseason unexpectedly.
In the spirit of that excitement and at a time when it's way too early to worry about whatever predictable flaws will fell these teams, let's isolate the clubs that could make an improbable leap from the lottery to the playoffs.
How improbable? Well, for starters, any team earning our dark-horse distinction must have finished at least 10 games shy of the No. 8 seed in its conference last year. Additionally, it can't be a team with built-in buzz. You know, one that already has more than a few pundits predicting a playoff possibility.
Now then, let's think some crazy thoughts.
Honorable Mention: New Orleans Pelicans
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Remember how I said teams with built-in buzz don't count? The New Orleans Pelicans are exactly that kind of team.
Eric Gordon expects to make the postseason, per Alex Kennedy of BasketballInsiders.com: "If we’re healthy, we’re for sure a playoff team."
B/R's D.J. Foster is on board as well:
"The question, however, isn't whether or not the Pelicans are capable of reaching the playoffs. They are. It's more about who the weak link is and who might keep the Pelicans from reaching their high ceiling this upcoming year.
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There's good reason for optimism, despite the fact that the Pellies finished a whopping 15 games behind the No. 8 spot in the West last year. Anthony Davis is a force of nature, and the team can't possibly suffer through the same rotten injury luck that sank it last year.
If New Orleans rebounds to a Davis-led 47-win season and the eighth seed, more than a few of us will have seen it coming. That's why it only warrants a passing mention here, despite fulfilling the rest of the dark-horse criteria.
Milwaukee Bucks
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So, about those Bucks...
By rule, any discussion about Milwaukee has to start with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is 19 years old, still growing and possesses a terrifying combination of length and speed. He is the prototype for a new positionless basketball player, and he is wholly untested.
But, man, is he loaded with potential.
Toss in a very polished Jabari Parker, the No. 2 overall pick, and the Bucks have an intriguing interchangeable forward combo that could wreak havoc on offense.
John Henson is a chronically underrated rim protector and rebounder. Larry Sanders was probably the best defensive player in basketball just two seasons ago, according to Kirk Goldsberry's treatise on interior defense. Obviously, Sanders has had his off-court troubles and injury issues. But he's still just 25 and has room to get better.
Most importantly, the Bucks still believe in him.
"Larry is in our future plans. We are hopeful that this year Larry gets back to being the basketball player that he was two years ago. He is a defensive presence and a game-changer on the court," Bucks assistant general manager David Morway told David Alarcon of HoopsHype.com.
If Milwaukee gets a little something from Brandon Knight, OJ Mayo and Kendall Marshall, the backcourt might not completely stink. And Ersan Ilyasova remains a useful floor-stretching shooter at the big forward position.
Realistically, the Bucks will have to want to win games this year for the postseason to be an option, and we can't be sure if they've reached that phase of their rebuilding project. The talent is there, though, and most of it figures to improve dramatically as the season progresses.
With a still soft Eastern Conference, the opportunity exists for this team to make a major splash.
Crazy, right?
Denver Nuggets
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More than 10 games out of the playoffs last season? Check. The Denver Nuggets fell short of the eighth-seeded Dallas Mavericks by 13 contests.
Lacking buzz? Also check. Nobody's blown away by Arron Afflalo and the return to health of JaVale McGee.
Denver has a ton of talent. Kenneth Faried has broken out during the FIBA Basketball World Cup, and Ty Lawson might be a top-10 point guard in a league enjoying a golden age at the position. If Danilo Gallinari is fully recovered after missing the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury, Denver could have a formidable starting five.
But unlike the Bucks, the Nuggets have a ridiculously tough road to the playoffs ahead of them.
Making the postseason could require a win total in the high 40s in the West (it took 49 last season), and all of the hopes surrounding guys like Gallinari and McGee aren't guaranteed to pan out.
Denver illustrates the main complication that arises when calling a team a dark horse. You have to explain why that team might, if things break just right, be good enough to crack the top eight spots. But then you have to explain how unlikely such an outcome seems.
Denver could be very good, but the West is guaranteed to be even better. Making up the 13-game deficit that kept it out of the playoffs in a single year would be pretty impressive.
So, summation: dark horse.
Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic had a strange offseason—one that gave off hints they would make another lottery appearance alongside signs indicating they actually cared about competing in the short term.
For example, the Magic snatched up Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton in the draft, two extremely talented players nowhere close to their ceilings. Payton can't shoot (26.8 percent from three in college), and Gordon is basically just an energy player right now.
Both have tons of potential down the line, with Payton's length and Gordon's raw athleticism looking like real weapons. But adding them to an already very young core that includes Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic and Maurice Harkless indicated immediate success wasn't a priority in Orlando.
But then the Magic went out and signed Channing Frye, an extremely valuable veteran floor-stretcher. Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour also came aboard.
Strange, huh?
What's interesting with Orlando is the possibility that all of those young players might develop more quickly than expected. If they do, guys like Frye, Gordon and Ridnour could provide the guidance necessary to make a real move on a playoff spot.
Head coach Jacque Vaughn told Raul Barrigon of HoopsHype.com: "Overall, our group has been extremely patient and the people of Orlando have been extremely patient and we appreciate that. When we set out on this journey, we talked about it."
Maybe this is the year patience pays off.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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Yes, I know I'm breaking the rule that says a dark horse has to finish at least 10 games out of a playoff spot in the preceding season. The Minnesota Timberwolves only fell nine games short last year, but they lost Kevin Love, and nobody thinks they have a chance to make the dance in 2014-15.
Close enough.
If nothing else, the raw irony of the Timberwolves making the playoffs the year after they cut ties with Love would make for great theater.
Love, of course, engineered his exit from the Wolves in part because he was frustrated by six consecutive campaigns without a postseason berth.
The haul Minnesota got back from the Cleveland Cavaliers is designed to set the franchise up with the kind of young talent it needs to build a new foundation. But what if that young talent is ready to help right now?
Stylistically, Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett should fit in alongside incumbent point guard Ricky Rubio in a run-and-gun attack. Draftee Zach LaVine is as athletic as prospects get, though highlight buckets count just the same as boring ones. He'll generate a few of the former.
And if you paid attention to the FIBA World Cup, you're aware that the growth Gorgui Dieng showed at the end of last season is startlingly real. Nikola Pekovic is entrenched at the 5, but he's a tradable commodity that could bring back any number of assets to fill in holes elsewhere on the roster. If a deal goes down, Dieng can step in and give the Wolves the defensive centerpiece they've lacked for years.
There are vets here too. Thaddeus Young is another new addition, and he'll provide borderline All-Star production at the power forward spot. Chase Budinger (fingers crossed) could finally get healthy, Kevin Martin can score and Corey Brewer is one of the league's best transition threats.
Losing Love, who is unquestionably one of the NBA's premier talents, hurts. But the Wolves might be able to replace him by committee. And it's entirely possible that getting rid of a player who didn't want to be there in the first place will change the locker room dynamics for the better.
The Wolves lost a ton of close games last season, and their final per-game differential of plus-2.67 points was the best of any non-playoff team in NBA history, per Basketball-Reference.com. In that sense you could make the case that even if Minnesota is slightly worse next year, it could still profile as a postseason team.
Don't count on the Timberwolves to make a stunning postseason appearance, but don't completely rule it out either.
Los Angeles Lakers
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I can't believe I'm about to make this argument, but the Los Angeles Lakers aren't completely, totally, entirely out of the playoff discussion.
Yes, they finished with a 27-55 record that left them 22 games short of a playoff spot last season. And yes, they're relying on a cast of rentals to support Kobe Bryant, who is coming off a lost season and has played more minutes (45,567) than all but 12 players in NBA history.
Here's the thing, though: When Bryant's healthy, he doesn't typically miss the postseason. In fact, it has only happened once, in 2004-05 when the Lakers were struggling to start fresh after both Phil Jackson and Shaquille O'Neal had left town.
Rudy Tomjanovich and Frank Hamblen coached the team that year, and luminaries like Chris Mihm and Chucky Atkins started actual basketball games.
Say what you want about Jeremy Lin, Carlos Boozer and Steve Nash. Just don't say they're less dependable than the scraps Bryant found himself leading a decade ago.
Banking on Bryant's health this season is pretty nuts. The list of 36-year-old guards with his mileage who have recovered from a torn Achilles and a broken leg does not exist. He'll be the only one on it if he survives this season with all limbs intact.
But do you really want to bet against Bryant to buck trends and defy age?
OK, maybe you do. Just don't bet too big. The Lakers have a shot at the postseason this year, but nobody with a shred of objectivity expects it.
Sounds like a dark horse to me.
