Wisconsin vs. Bowling Green Complete Game Preview
In a clash of styles, the Wisconsin Badgers face off against the Bowling Green Falcons in a nonconference tilt. The Badgers are coming off a bye week, while the Falcons are riding high after a thrilling victory over the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington, 45-42.
Both teams have to feel pretty good about where they stand right now, all things considered, though both face mounting injury issues. Bowling Green lost starting quarterback Matt Johnson for the season with a hip injury, while the Badgers have lost a number of players including defensive tackle/end Warren Herring, fullback Derek Watt and running back Taiwan Deal until at least the start of Big Ten play.
For the Badgers, a win here would help boost the standing of the Big Ten as a whole, which has taken a beating over the past two weeks, including a litany of blowouts and losses to teams in and outside of the power five. For Bowling Green, a win would be their second in as many weeks against Big Ten foes.
Let's take a closer look at each team's keys to victory, whom to watch and a prediction for the game.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Run the ball
Last week, the Badgers were able to win by 34 despite seeing 38 rushing yards from Melvin Gordon on 17 carries—good for 2.2 yards per carry, which is his lowest yards per carry since seeing one carry against Ohio State in 2012.
Gordon routinely saw eight or nine players in the box. In the past, even against stacked boxes, he has been able to wiggle out and still find room to run, but whether it was his hip or just a good defensive game plan, Gordon was shut down.
Early on, the Badgers will need to establish the run game against Bowling Green in order to slow down the tempo of the game and to open up the play-action passing game for McEvoy. Ideally, the Badgers will have 35 or more minutes of possession, thus limiting the amount of time Bowling Green is on offense, as much of their yardage is gained through volume, not necessarily big plays.
Force Bowling Green behind the chains
While it would be easy to say "force turnovers" or "get three and outs," all the Badgers really need to do is keep Bowling Green behind the chains. The Falcons have a fairly potent offense behind quarterback James Knapke and running back Travis Greene; however, Greene's longest run last game was only 19 yards, while Knapke's longest completion was 40.
Bowling Green is able to move the ball in small chunks, not unlike the Badgers, though without Matt Johnson hurling the ball downfield, it allows the Badgers to play a little closer to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to rattle the recently anointed starter.
If the Badgers can get the Falcons into 3rd-and-8 or longer, they will have a good shot to run away with this game. The Falcons only went 7-of-18 on third down and are 39.3 percent on converting third downs this season. Keeping them at bay on first and second down will pay huge dividends for the Badgers.
Bowling Green Keys to Victory
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Run the offense at warp speed
Against Indiana, the Falcons lived up to their nickname, running an astonishing 113 plays, including a whopping 73 pass attempts. Without quarterback Matt Johnson, the only way Bowling Green is going to move the ball is through running their offense at hyper-speed, something they are able to do with ease.
If the crowd can get into the game, playing in Indiana and playing at Camp Randall are two totally different animals, as the noise from the 80,321 fans in Madison can cause a litany of problems for opposing offenses that are trying to run as many plays as the Falcons are.
New starter James Knapke only threw for 5.4 yards per attempt, which means the Falcons are going to need plenty of attempts if they really want to put a scare into the Badgers.
Stop the run
If one just looked at the final score, one would think the Badgers ran away with their game against Western Illinois and then took their foot off the gas pedal in the second half. Those who watched the game know that the 37-3 final scoreline wasn't indicative of how the game—particularly the first half—went at all.
The Leathernecks stuffed the run by totally selling out, committing eight or even nine guys in the box and daring quarterback Tanner McEvoy to throw. While eventually the Badgers got their passing game going, with McEvoy completing 17 straight passes, the Badgers went in to the break up only 9-3.
McEvoy may have been able to break Russell Wilson's consecutive completion record against an FCS defense, but the Badgers will need to run the ball to have success, particularly against as high-flying an offense as the Falcons have.
If Bowling Green can stop the run, it will play right into their hands, as they will then be able to dictate the tempo. If they can't stop the run, their offense will be watching as the Badgers chew up chunks of time while they ride the pine.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Melvin Gordon, Running Back
To say Gordon was bad against Western Illinois is putting it lightly. He rushed for 38 yards on 17 carries, 21 of which came on one play. While he also added four catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, Gordon all but knocked himself out of the Heisman conversation with his abysmal day at the office.
Gordon is still an elite running back, and his hip may have been bothering him more than he let on, though it seems strange that the coaching staff would have played him against an FCS team if he wasn't 100 percent.
For the Badgers to win this game, they will need to control the clock, and that starts with Gordon. If he can have a day that he's accustomed to having—last season he averaged 7.8 yards per carry—the Badgers should have no problem keeping the Falcons offense off the field and march methodically to victory in short order.
Lubern Figaro, Safety
While the Badgers returned many pieces in their secondary, the departure of Dezmen Southward to the NFL left a void at the safety spot opposite Michael Caputo. While Caputo has been nothing short of excellent, his running mate, true freshman Lubern Figaro, has experienced quite a bit of growing pains.
Figaro needs to learn how to sit back and watch the game slow down and unfold in front of him, as time and again against LSU he was beaten over the top. Figaro has looked excellent in practice, and with more live reps, the game will slow down.
Against an uptempo team like Bowling Green, having Figaro play center field will be all the more important as Caputo makes more plays in the box. Though I don't think Bowling Green will attempt 73 passes, Figaro needs to be ready on every down for a ball to come his way.
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Bowling Green Players to Watch
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James Knapke, Quarterback
When starter Matt Johnson went down for the season with a hip injury after the team's first game, a once promising season looked to be quickly unraveling. Two games and a rewritten record book later, things are still looking bright for the Falcons, as his replacement, James Knapke, has slid in with aplomb.
In his first game as the starter, Knapke went 22-of-31 for 237 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a 48-7 victory over Virginia Military. Knapke also rushed twice for 18 yards and a touchdown.
But it was his second start, against Indiana, where Knapke turned in a volume passing performance for the ages. Knapke went 46-of-73 for 395 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. While Knapke probably won't be able to throw 73 passes against the Badgers, their uptempo offense could cause problems for Wisconsin.
Roger Lewis, Wide Receiver
As good as Knapke was, it was thanks to Roger Lewis that the Falcons could seal the deal against the Hoosiers. Lewis, a true freshman, has 30 receptions on the year, 16 of which came against the Hoosiers for 149 yards and a touchdown.
Lewis' 30 receptions is good for third in the FBS and tops among freshmen by a wide margin. Lewis was a 2-star recruit coming out of high school, according to 247 Sports, making this all the more impressive.
The Badgers will likely put Sojourn Shelton on Lewis in order to shut him down, though the Badgers' mix of zone and man will mean that Lewis won't draw Shelton all game. Furthermore, Shelton, as good as he is, is not Richard Sherman and can't completely take a receiver out of the game.
If Lewis can come close to the totals he's compiled over his first three collegiate games, the Falcons have a good chance to maybe pull another upset over a Big Ten team.
What They're Saying
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Wisconsin
There are plenty of concerns about just how fast this no-huddle offense can play. Head coach Gary Andersen is one of those who is most concerned, but he feels as if they have an ace in the hole, the home crowd, which will help slow down the Falcons' flight.
"One of the best ways to put a hindrance onto a no-huddle offense and the way they want to go fast is we have a home crowd and they are pretty powerful,” Andersen said, via Madison.com. “So hopefully they can get involved, which I’m sure they will, and they’ll do their part.”
Linebacker Derek Landisch echoed that sentiment, saying, "Since we’re at home, it’s going to be loud. So as far as the defensive perspective, we’re going to definitely have to be on the same page with communication and just getting lined up and playing our assignment football."
Bowling Green
New head coach Dino Babers filled out plenty of already interesting recaps with this colorful quote after the team took down Indiana 45-42 in thrilling, come-from-behind fashion.
He said via 247Sports, "We wanted them to feel us in the fourth quarter. We wanted the game close enough where they could feel us, to see if they squeezed up a little bit because we were going to stay relaxed and we were going play."
Prediction
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This game could see quite a few points, but Bowling Green's offense will hit a brick wall thanks to the crowd noise and their inability to convert on third down at a higher clip.
Melvin Gordon will have a breakout game, rushing for 150 yards on 20 carries while Corey Clement chips in another 80 on a dozen carries. McEvoy will exploit the holes left by Bowling Green's already fragile secondary en route to 200 yards and two scores while handing the last drive of the game over to Bart Houston.
Bowling Green will be stumped after their first drive, where a late-arriving student section can't quite rattle Knapke as he leads them down the field for their first and only touchdown of the half before scoring again in the waning moments of the game in the fourth.
Final Score: Wisconsin 37, Bowling Green 17
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