Patriots vs. Vikings: Complete Week 2 Preview for New England
When the New England Patriots refer to moving on from a result, it is typically to check their run of success and maintain humility. But after a humbling second-half thrashing from the Miami Dolphins last week, the Patriots have plenty of issues to resolve before they can even conceive of such luxurious problems like weekly focus.
In the preseason, the Pats looked like an ostensibly overwhelming favorite in their Week 2 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. But after Minnesota's dominating all-around Week 1 victory in Mike Zimmer's debut, victory is far from assured, especially when examining the Vikings' underrated base of young foundational talent.
Panic would be too unreasonable at this point, as the Pats still have 94 percent of their regular-season schedule to play out. Still, concern is fair after all the problems that cropped up last week, so let's dive deeper into Sunday's matchup to determine how New England can level its record and assuage its disconcerted fans.
Patriots Week 1 Recap
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No one needs a reminder of New England's second-half collapse against the Miami Dolphins. After a 23-0 drubbing over the final 30 minutes, virtually every unit bears question marks headed into this weekend.
The woes of the 3-4 front are most concerning given this week's opponent. Knowshon Moreno's vision and slippery agility have given the Pats problems in the past, but ultimately, New England's porous run defense stemmed from a stunning lack of fundamental comprehension. Chandler Jones, Jerod Mayo, Joe Vellano, Vince Wilfork and Jamie Collins struggled to varying degrees with understanding their run fits, often leaving gaping lanes in their stead.
While the Pats were primarily in sub-packages against the Dolphins, Adrian Peterson's presence requires a heavy emphasis on base personnel this week. Regardless of whether or not Bill Belichick reverts to the hybrid system that suits more natural one-gappers like Jones and Vellano, proven run-stuffers like Rob Ninkovich and Dont'a Hightower figure to play heavy snaps.
And while Minnesota's front may not appear as fearsome as Miami's quick defensive line, Zimmer's proclivity for double A-gap blitzes could wreak havoc on a Patriots offensive line that experienced multiple communication issues last week. Reverting to a veteran interior anchored by Dan Connolly, Marcus Cannon and Ryan Wendell looks like the best play at this point, if only for the sake of grounding the unit in experience.
One overlooked aspect to watch is penalties. Mostly lost in the hubbub over New England's other woes, the Patriots committed nine penalties for 100 costly yards. Three personal fouls along with calls on Brandon LaFell and Michael Hoomanawanui represented underrated turning points against the Dolphins. Against a team with inferior talent on paper, the Patriots cannot once again afford to gift free lifelines to the opposition.
News and Notes
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Brady Under Fire
After suffering a significant statistical dip in 2013, whispers about Tom Brady's decline grew increasingly noisy this past offseason. While it would be foolish to write the 37-year-old's eulogy based on last week's poor half, Stats.com's Santosh Venkataraman suggests that long-term downward trends in Brady's accuracy provide viable cause for concern:
"In addition to struggling with the deep ball, Brady had a broader problem with his accuracy. He completed 29 of 56 passes, but of those 27 incompletions, 15 were what STATS defines as a poor throw – a pass deemed underthrown, overthrown, too wide, too hard or slipped from the quarterback’s hand. That total was by far the most in Week 1, calculating to an alarming 26.8 percent of his attempts.
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Though Pats fans may be tempted to reassert Brady's infallibility, the article is worth a read. It's important to remember the context of the offense surrounding Brady, which has experienced significant turnover (and truthfully, an overall talent downgrade) over the past two years.
Nevertheless, Brady cannot remain the sole tide that lifts all boats on the New England offense. He remains a remarkable quarterback and the Patriots' most important player. Still, it is fair to wonder if the combination of Brady's declining deep-ball accuracy and a limited receiving corps has constrained the passing game.
Status Quo on O-Line?
Change is a popular demand whenever a unit or player underperforms. Despite New England's offensive line woes last week, though, the early signs suggest that the Pats have not budged from their initial starting five, per CSNNE.com's Phil Perry:
"But during the half-speed warmup early in Wednesday's practice -- the first practice of the week for Bill Belichick's squad -- the starting offensive line was configured exactly as it was in Miami: Nate Solder at left tackle, Marcus Cannon at left guard, Dan Connolly at center, Jordan Devey at right guard and Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle.
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In fairness, continuity is indispensable for a successful offensive line, so the rotating interior line carousel needs to stop at some point. But Devey stands out as a sore thumb here. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Devey's minus-7.5 overall blocking grade ranked 147th among guards during the preseason, and his minus-4.2 Week 1 grade ranked 63rd.
Devey's youth and versatility make him a worthy developmental prospect, but it's clear his awareness is not ready for extended action. Unless Bryan Stork or Josh Kline takes decisive steps forward, reinserting Ryan Wendell into the lineup could add much-needed stability.
Gronk Ready for More
At his best, Rob Gronkowski is an amorphous weapon capable of wreaking havoc in any personnel grouping. But just nine months removed from ACL surgery, it is no surprise that Gronk played just 38 of 86 snaps last week. However, ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter suggested that Gronkowski is ready for a more extensive workload this week:
"Gronkowski says he is putting in the work and is ready to play more, if called upon.
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“Yes, definitely," he said. "Whatever the coaches have for me out there -- whatever the game plan is -- when I get my number called, I have to go out there and I have to do my job and perform to the best of my ability.”
Fifty percent is still likely the expectation for Gronkowski's snap count this week. As ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss illustrates, Gronk took five weeks last season to return to a full workload. The circumstances are different, for Gronk has experienced a steady progression this year, whereas multiple setbacks last season delayed his rehab and may have resulted in more early conditioning issues.
Perhaps the Patriots could limit his snaps in a different method. Instead of reserving Gronkowski for third downs and red-zone snaps, allowing him to play full series (and then take full series off) might make for a more extended impact. Given New England's struggles in the passing game, the Patriots need to extract every drop of potential impact no matter how many snaps their All-Pro tight end plays.
Injury Report
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| Michael Buchanan | DE | Out |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Questionable |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | Probable |
| Chris Jones | DT | Questionable |
| Sealver Siliga | DT | Questionable |
| Ryan Wendell | C | Questionable |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss.
No surprises here, as Collins is the only new addition to the injury report. After appearing on the injury report Thursday and Friday, Collins was officially ruled out the night before the game, according to Reiss. That will rob the Pats of one of their three-down linebackers, so perhaps Dont'a Hightower will move back to an off-the-line role after fulfilling an edge-rushing role in Week 1.
The defensive line trio of Buchanan, Jones and Siliga will be important to watch. The two missed the Week 1 contest, thinning out the Patriots' front-seven depth and perhaps compelling Belichick to rely on the much-beleaguered three-man fronts. Starters Chandler Jones, Vince Wilfork and Joe Vellano visibly wore down in the South Florida heat last week, so a more liberal rotation could bear late-game dividends.
The Patriots have been lucky not to experience any significant injuries, especially at thin positions like interior offensive line, safety and linebacker. Most of the players on this week's injury report represent the next layer of depth behind the starters, though, so their returns would add important insurance to the 46-man game-day roster.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Darrelle Revis vs. Cordarrelle Patterson
This is the highest-profile one-on-one matchup of this contest. Though Revis played all but one snap on the left side of the field against the Dolphins, per Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson, the Vikings are the type of team that could necessitate an isolation matchup for New England's top corner.
It's no secret that Patterson is one of the game's most versatile offensive weapons, as his open-field explosion has compelled the Vikings to feed him the ball on screens and jet sweeps, where he can attack the second level with space to work with.
Patterson is not the most polished route-runner, and he will not threaten all areas of the field with the full route tree. Minnesota's budding young star can thus be contained with good discipline and play recognition—traits that Revis has embodied throughout his eight-year career.
Nate Solder vs. Everson Griffen
While much of the week's focus lies on the interior line, New England's foundational left tackle struggled as well. Solder conceded two sacks, a hit and a hurry en route to a minus-2.4 pass-blocking grade, the sixth-lowest of the week, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Griffen is not a high-profile pass-rusher, a fact that led some to criticize the lavish long-term extension Minnesota bestowed upon him this offseason. But the 26-year-old demonstrated glimpses of his potential against the St. Louis Rams in Week 1, compiling two sacks in his 2014 debut.
Although Zimmer's defensive system places an emphasis on edge containment rather than quick upfield get-offs, Griffen's length and speed should still make him a consistent edge-rushing threat. New England may not be able to bank on consistency from its interior line, making a Solder bounce-back imperative toward establishing any semblance of an offensive rhythm.
Offensive X-Factor: Kenbrell Thompkins
With Aaron Dobson and Rob Gronkowski still building up from offseason surgeries, Thompkins has become New England's best perimeter option by default. Though the second-year receiver demonstrated improved chemistry with Brady during the preseason, he was essentially limited to quick slants against the Dolphins in compiling just 37 yards on five catches.
This week, however, Thompkins should have a fairly winnable matchup. When the Patriots play three-receiver sets, Vikings cornerback Captain Munnerlyn kicks inside to the slot, leaving the split end Thompkins against Josh Robinson. Though Robinson had a beautiful interception last week, the third-year corner has struggled with tackling and general route identification awareness during his brief career.
For a polished route-runner like Thompkins, his intelligence should provide him an edge over the athletic yet raw Robinson. If Thompkins can stretch the defense to the perimeter with a few flag routes and back-shoulder fades, that could grease the wheels on New England's static passing game.
Defensive X-Factor: Sealver Siliga
Given its offensive strength, Minnesota is much more liable to play 12/Ace (2 WR, 1 RB, 2 TE) or 22/Tank (1 WR, 2 RB, 2 TE) personnel than most teams. As such, this week should represent one of the few instances when the Pats need to lean on their base personnel more than their sub-package groupings.
Consequently, someone like Siliga figures to see an uptick in playing time. He is still recovering from his preseason hand injury, as evidenced by the club-like cast on his hand last week, but other than Vince Wilfork, he is arguably the only Patriot who is equipped to two-gap along the defensive line.
Minnesota possesses a pair of terrific interior linemen in center John Sullivan and right guard Brandon Fusco. The two combined for a whopping plus-31.0 overall run-blocking grade last year, per PFF, illustrating their importance as road graders to creating openings and cutback lanes for Peterson.
Siliga is at a disadvantage in that matchup, a sentiment that applies to New England's defensive line as a whole. But to prevent Minnesota's mobile linemen from down-blocking on the second level, Siliga must at least battle Sullivan and/or Fusco to a draw.
Prediction
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Part of New England's sustained success stems from its mental toughness in adverse circumstances. Traveling to play an unfamiliar and underrated opponent certainly qualifies, even if most expect the Patriots to win this week.
To be clear, Minnesota presents problems beyond Adrian Peterson. The versatile front seven presents a challenge, especially when the Vikings shift to sub-package personnel and allow players like Anthony Barr and Brian Robison to wreak havoc from multiple positions. Additionally, safety Harrison Smith presents an intriguing option for the Vikings to bracket Gronkowski in the seams and red zone.
But New England remains a superior team on paper, even if that talent failed to manifest itself in Week 1. Under Brady and Belichick, the Patriots have rarely remained mired in a funk for long stretches, even with lesser personnel than they currently possess. A victory is far from preordained, but it remains the expectation.
Prediction: Patriots 29, Vikings 18
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