Predicting When NBA's Longest Playoff Droughts Will Finally End
NBA playoff droughts aren't easy to get into, but once they have ensnared a team their grip can be relentless.
The league isn't exactly stingy with its postseason tickets. More than 53 percent of its teams (16 of 30) qualify for the big dance, a significantly higher portion than what is seen in the NFL (37.5) or MLB (33.3).
Yet that generosity still hasn't kept these six teams from suffering through agonizing droughts. One empty season is a disappointment, two can cause alarm sirens to blare, but three (or more) constitute a full-fledged drought—at least for our purposes here.
So where do these six clubs stand on the road to recovery? Which ones are ready to crash the playoff party, and which should be hoarding necessities for more barren years ahead?
With our prognosticators' hats secured and our crystal ball in sight, it's time to predict when these six teams will finally snap out of their second-season funks.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 2015
1 of 6
Last Playoff Appearance: 2010
Reason for Optimism: Any other team would have made its offseason by bringing three-time All-Star Kevin Love on board. But the league's quintessential stretch 4 took a back seat to the return of the Cleveland Cavaliers' prodigal son—and four-time MVP—LeBron James.
Cleveland already had an intriguing group of young talent in place headlined by two-time All-Star Kyrie Irving, and a number of championship-experienced veterans (notably Mike Miller and Shawn Marion) have signed on to support this core.
The Cavs aren't simply poised to rejoin the playoff field but should do so at or near the top of the bracket. FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver projected a 65-17 record for Cleveland, and there's a chance the on-court product might be even better.
The Eastern Conference should be either a two-team race between the Cavs and the Chicago Bulls or simply Cleveland's to lose.
Cause for Concern: Nothing that would quash Cleveland's playoff chances, but a potentially leaky defense will need to be addressed for the Cavs to pull off a successful championship run.
Light on both proven perimeter stoppers and rim protectors, first-year coach David Blatt will need to elicit a defensive commitment from players who haven't always shown one in the past. The talent is there for Cleveland to show better than it has at that end, but talent is nothing without the right kind of effort.
Detroit Pistons: 2016
2 of 6
Last Playoff Appearance: 2009
Reason for Optimism: The Detroit Pistons not only appear to have a cornerstone piece in hulking 21-year-old center Andre Drummond, but they also have a coach who has built a successful system around a similar physical specimen in Stan Van Gundy.
During five seasons with Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, Van Gundy enjoyed a .657 winning percentage and deployed the league's second-most-efficient defense. The Pistons allowed 107.3 points per 100 possessions last season, which seems criminally high with a deterrent like Drummond manning the middle.
But the big man has been waiting for a coach who help carve his physical gifts into something substantial. Drummond has been waiting for a coach like Van Gundy.
"What Drummond has needed is a coherent system to actually learn so that his instincts can be molded," wrote Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta. "The system has to come first, and the players have to be so committed to it that it becomes ingrained. Now that's possible."
Drummond and Van Gundy can't conquer Detroit's playoff woes on their own, but the pair will figure prominently in the Pistons' eventual postseason return.
Cause for Concern: Van Gundy and Drummond look ready to end the drought, but another season seems necessary to get the rest of the roster into shape.
Greg Monroe's qualifying offer puts this frontcourt in the same spacing bind it faced last season, and the backcourt isn't strong enough to overcome those issues. The Pistons are heading in the right direction, but their desired destination isn't quite within reach.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 2017
3 of 6
Last Playoff Appearance: 2004
Reason for Optimism: The Minnesota Timberwolves handled Kevin Love's departure as well as they could. It's still a loss in the short run and perhaps will always be seen in that light, but the arrival of 2014 top pick Andrew Wiggins gives Minnesota someone to build around.
The Wolves are now head-first into a rebuild, but considering the Love era netted not a single playoff berth, that could be a good thing. Minnesota has reshaped its roster around youth and athleticism, which could be the blueprint for long-term success.
"With the additions of Wiggins, [Anthony] Bennett and Zach LaVine this summer, we have brought in three exciting young athletes who all have the potential to have an impact in this league," Wolves president-coach Flip Saunders said in an official team statement. "All three of them complement each other very well and we believe they will be foundations of our team for years to come."
Add in-house young guns Ricky Rubio (23), Gorgui Dieng (24) and Shabazz Muhammad (21) to the mix, and Minnesota has a core that could really jell after a few seasons spent together. As current Western Conference contenders start to age themselves out of the race (San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies), the Timberpups should be ready to claim one of the vacated spots.
Cause for Concern: As much as there is to like about Minnesota's ceiling, its basement is equally terrifying.
For now, the Wolves have far more athletes than proven NBA players, which isn't guaranteed to change. Minnesota made the right move by prioritizing the future over the present, but it also bet on its own ability to deliver that potentially rewarding future at some point.
New Orleans Pelicans: 2015
4 of 6
Last Playoff Appearance: 2011
Reason for Optimism: Anthony Davis' dominance.
OK, it really isn't that simple, but in some ways, it kind of is. The 21-year-old has already posted some elite numbers at both ends of the floor—last season, he ranked 15th in scoring (20.8), 10th in rebounding (10.0), first in blocks (2.8) and fourth in player efficiency rating (26.5)—and his game is only continuing to grow.
"I’m definitely working on the corner three-pointer," Davis said earlier this summer, via Pelicans.com's Jim Eichenhofer. "(Also) more post moves, a consistent mid-range jump shot, ball-handling."
That's scary stuff, as is the thought of a healthy, deeper New Orleans Pelicans. The roster was ripped apart by injury last season, but the talent obviously extends well beyond the franchise face.
With Omer Asik joining Davis and Ryan Anderson in the frontcourt, the Pellies should have interior tandems for any situation. And the wings will be loaded if Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are spared from the injury bug.
Between Davis' rise and the roster's return to full strength, New Orleans looks ready for the fully loaded Western Conference.
Cause for Concern: There are still some chemistry hurdles to clear, as this core hasn't spent much time together inside the lines. And this defense, while good on paper, has plenty of ground to make up after finishing last season placed 25th in defensive efficiency.
The Pelicans have acted as a team ready to win now, so the pressure to perform is higher than it would be for most clubs coming off a 34-win campaign.
Phoenix Suns: 2016
5 of 6
Last Playoff Appearance: 2010
Reason for Optimism: If not for an incredibly stacked Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns wouldn't even be on this list. However, the West's depth meant the Suns' 48 wins were worth nothing more than the distinction of being one of the best teams to ever miss out on postseason play.
The Suns pack a potent combination of youth and talent. They are good enough to bother the NBA's elites, and nearly every player on the roster has room to grow.
Assuming the relationship with restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe isn't past the point of repair, the Suns should return the primary pieces of last season's high-powered attack. The core saw both credits (notably, Isaiah Thomas, rookie T.J. Warren) and debits (Channing Frye, Ish Smith) over the summer, all of which should equate to no worse than lateral movement.
Their three-headed monster at point (Bledsoe, Thomas and Goran Dragic) should keep this offense among the league's best, and the defense could progress if sophomores Alex Len and Archie Goodwin play their way into prominent roles.
Cause for Concern: The West might be even deeper than before, and it's hard to say for certain the Suns have done enough to secure one of those eight tickets this time around.
Bledsoe's situation doesn't feel irreparable, but perhaps it opened enough wounds to impact this club's chemistry. Given the razor-thin margin for error, it wouldn't take much of a distraction for their playoff dreams to derail.
It might take another offseason—when the futures of both Bledsoe and Dragic could need to be decided—for this franchise to finally find the right formula.
Sacramento Kings: 2017
6 of 6
Last Playoff Appearance: 2006
Reason for Optimism: DeMarcus Cousins is turning heads for the right reasons with Team USA.
"That's a couple games in a row where he has been a force for us," coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters after Cousins' 11-point, seven-rebound performance Saturday. "He's a different player than Anthony Davis, and that's kind of what we were hoping we would continue to move forward with, and DeMarcus is coming through for us."
No one will have a bigger hand in the Sacramento Kings' future than the 24-year-old bruiser, so it has to be good seeing him effective on the international circuit. The Kings have yet to give him more than he could handle—he set career highs in points (22.7), rebounds (11.7), assists (2.9) and field-goal percentage (49.6) last season—and they would be wise to let him continue carrying the production.
If Cousins can develop a chemistry with the Kings and USA Basketball teammate Rudy Gay, Sacramento might have the makings of a playoff foundation.
Cause for Concern: It's hard to say if this franchise has an identity. The roster is filled with overlapping pieces, few (if any) of which seem to fit with head coach Michael Malone's defensive philosophies.
Sacramento might need a few seasons to figure out which of these players can best complement Cousins. Boogie seems capable of leading the way, but he'll need a cohesive group of players to lead first.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
