NCAA Football Rankings 2014: Predicting the AP Top 25 After Week 2
Outside of a couple of big games—Michigan State at Oregon, Stanford at USC—Week 2 of the college football season looked pretty drab on paper. But, as weekends that look drab on paper are wont to do, it ended up being a memorable one.
Both of those big games lived up to their billing, and behind them, a small group of big-name programs getting pushed to the limit by underdogs made for gripping entertainment from start to finish.
With a few of those programs going down, next week's Associated Press rankings should take a much different shape than this week's.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here is a prediction of the order we might see on Sunday:
| 1. Florida State | 2-0 | 1 | def. the Citadel, 37-12 |
| 2. Oregon | 2-0 | 3 | def. Michigan State, 46-27 |
| 3. Alabama | 2-0 | 2 | def. Florida Atlantic, 41-0 |
| 4. Oklahoma | 2-0 | 4 | def. Tulsa, 52-7 |
| 5. Auburn | 2-0 | 5 | def. San Jose State, 59-13 |
| 6. Georgia | 1-0 | 6 | BYE |
| 7. Texas A&M | 2-0 | 9 | def. Lamar, 73-3 |
| 8. Baylor | 2-0 | 10 | def. Northwestern State, 70-6 |
| 9. USC | 2-0 | 14 | def. Stanford, 13-10 |
| 10. LSU | 2-0 | 12 | def. Sam Houston State, 56-0 |
| 11. Notre Dame | 2-0 | 16 | def. Michigan, 31-0 |
| 12. Michigan State | 1-1 | 7 | loss to Oregon, 46-27 |
| 13. Ole Miss | 2-0 | 15 | def. Vanderbilt, 41-3 |
| 14. Arizona State | 2-0 | 17 | def. New Mexico, 58-23 |
| 15. Stanford | 1-1 | 13 | loss to USC, 13-10 |
| 16. BYU | 2-0 | NR | def. Texas, 41-7 |
| 17. Virginia Tech | 2-0 | NR | def. Ohio State, 35-21 |
| 18. UCLA | 2-0 | 11 | def. Memphis, 42-35 |
| 19. Missouri | 2-0 | 24 | def. Toledo, 49-24 |
| 20. Wisconsin | 1-1 | 18 | def. Western Illinois, 37-3 |
| 21. Kansas State | 2-0 | 20 | def. Iowa State, 32-28 |
| 22. Ohio State | 1-1 | 8 | loss to Virginia Tech, 35-21 |
| 23. South Carolina | 1-1 | 21 | def. East Carolina, 33-23 |
| 24. Clemson | 1-1 | 23 | def. South Carolina State, 73-7 |
| 25. Louisville | 2-0 | 25 | def. Murray State, 66-23 |
Note: Rankings reflect a prediction of the Week 2 AP poll—not how the author would rank the teams himself. Predictions made under the assumption that all remaining Week 1 games finish as betting spreads would indicate.
Fun Facts
• North Carolina was No. 21 last week but drops out of the rankings despite coming back to beat San Diego State in Chapel Hill, 31-27. Nebraska was No. 19 last week but incurs the same fate after needing some late-game heroics to beat an FCS team, McNeese State. If either team actually goes unranked Sunday afternoon—which is, of course, not guaranteed—they would be the first 2-0 teams to fall from the rankings since Missouri in 2009. That Mizzou team finished 8-5.
• After winning at Stanford, USC rises up to No. 9, its highest ranking since Week 3 of the 2012 season. The reason it dropped back then? A road loss at Stanford. Every time the Trojans play in Palo Alto, you can bank on a top-10 shakeup.
Teams Rising
USC
It wasn't always pretty, but USC-Stanford games never are. They're supposed to be low-scoring, painful, grind-it-out fistfights, and the team that lands the final punch is supposed to end up better in the long run because of it.
And that's exactly what USC should be after its 13-10 win on The Farm. One week after running 104 plays and gaining 700-plus yards against Fresno State, the Trojans proved they could win in multiple ways.
Even though they got outgained by more than 100 yards and benefited from a little bit of luck (David Shaw's coaching, ugly turnovers, terrible kicking), beating the Cardinal on the road is no small task.
It's deserving of a top-10 ranking.
Notre Dame
It's not clear what should be made of Michigan, a team that looked great against Appalachian State in Week 1 but could easily be the same type of train wreck as last year. Either way, though, the Wolverines were a far better test for Notre Dame than Rice, but the Irish looked roughly as dominant in a 31-0 win Saturday night.
In the process, Notre Dame snapped Michigan's NCAA record streak of 376 consecutive games since its last shutout.
"It only counts for one," said Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly, per The Associated Press (via ESPN.com), "[But] I'd be lying if I told you that it didn't feel great to shut out Michigan 31 to nothing."
Not a bad way for the Irish to end this rivalry (for now).
BYU
An easy way to rise early in the season: Beat somebody.
An easier way to rise early in the season: Beat somebody on the road.
BYU did both Saturday night, beating Charlie Strong's Texas Longhorns in Austin, 41-7. The margin of victory (34) was actually 15 points higher than that of last year's program-changing blowout: the one that effectively cost Mack Brown his job after 16 years.
Quarterback Taysom Hill couldn't match last year's ridiculous rushing numbers (17 carries, 259 yards, three touchdowns in 2013), but his improved passing accuracy was on display, and he still left a lasting image with his legs.
Virginia Tech
To quote the section above:
"An easy way to rise early in the season: Beat somebody.
An easier way to rise early in the season: Beat somebody on the road.
"
Virginia Tech did both Saturday night, beating an Ohio State team with severe offensive problems. JT Barrett couldn't complete a 10-question survey against the Hokies' secondary, and the offensive line was a human turnstile against the Hokies' front seven.
Still, Frank Beamer's team deserves credit for going into Columbus and leaving with a win—regardless of the flaws of the opponent. Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer played a great game at quarterback, overcoming a big interception to lead the game-winning touchdown drive in the middle of the fourth quarter.
Florida State does not want Virginia Tech to win the ACC Coastal.
Teams Falling
Ohio State
Are we sure that was an Urban Meyer-coached team?
The Buckeyes were outplayed, out-schemed, out-muscled, out-worked and altogether outclassed on their home field by Virginia Tech, losing by two touchdowns, 35-21. The final score was inflated—technically—by a pick-six at the end of the fourth quarter, but despite that, Ohio State was lucky to even keep it this close.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels were lucky to escape against San Diego State, looking shaky for the second consecutive week despite the 2-0 record.
They've now given up 340-plus yards in both of their 2014 games, first to Liberty and now to the Aztecs.
Larry Fedora's team should continue lighting up the scoreboard—something Fedora-coached teams have never had a problem doing—but it does not have an ACC-contender worthy defense, as some had quixotically hoped. Especially with Virginia Tech rising, its chances of winning the ACC Coastal are trending the wrong way.
UCLA
UCLA had a chance to prove that Week 1 at Virginia was a fluke—and in some ways, it did. The offense wasn't nearly as bad as it looked against the Wahoos, but the defense wasn't nearly as good.
Perhaps both units were a fluke.
The Bruins very nearly lost to Memphis at home Saturday, allowing 35 points and not taking the lead for good until late into the fourth quarter. The whole "9 a.m. kickoff on the west coast" excuse is no longer viable to bail them out. The most logical verdict on Jim Mora's team right now is perhaps it just isn't that good.
Expect it to tumble because of that.
Nebraska
Ameer Abdullah made the highlight of the season (so far) with less than a minute to go against McNeese State, putting the team on his back with a ridiculous, Super Mario Bros.-esque touchdown reception in a tied game to bail Nebraska out of an ugly upset.
That's the good news. The bad news is that…well, Nebraska needed to be bailed out of an ugly upset. If not for Abdullah, the Huskers would have had to take McNeese State to overtime on its home field.
That is not something a top-20 team would do.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
