Free MLB Pick: Brewers vs. Reds Under – July 16th 2009

Scott Rickenbach’s Free Pick Opinion Play for MLB Thursday: UNDER the total in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 PM ET. 

Homer Bailey vs. Braden Loope.  Homer Bailey of the Reds has struggled so far in his young career. That’s helping to give us great line value here. This total opened up as the biggest total (9.5) on the board for Thursday. That’s a great value because Bailey is indeed showing signs of having turned the corner this season. Even though he struggled with command in his first two outings, he’s been tough to hit so far this year. Don’t be fooled by his 5.16 ERA this season. Teams are hitting just .195 against Bailey this season.

With his walks now down (just two in his last 13.1 innings) Bailey is transitioning from wild and unpredictable to solid plus very tough to hit. In his last two outings he’s allowed just two walks and 10 hits in 13.1 innings. Bailey will be facing a Brewers team that’s been “all or nothing” so far this month. Milwaukee has been held to two runs or less in five of their 11 games this month.

Look for Milwaukee’s sticks to be held in check once again here and the key to the under in this matchup is that the Reds are also quite likely to have a quiet night at the plate.

Cincinnati has averaged just three runs per game in their last 13 games. Here the Reds will be facing Braden Looper of the Brewers. The right-hander has given up just 23 hits in his last 24.1 innings on the mound. Looper has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. Note that, in all six of those “workmanlike outings,” Looper never allowed more than seven hits.

He’s 6-3 in his career against the Reds and he’s held them to a .232 batting average. The biggest issue for Looper in recent outings has been the long ball. However, despite playing their home games in a homer-friendly park, the Reds rank 20th in the majors in terms of home runs hit this season. They just don’t have the pop in their lineup to take advantage of Looper’s long ball struggles and, as noted above, Bailey really appears to have turned the corner for the Reds.

Being able to get nine as a “win number” is simply an added bonus here. We’ll take it! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

Thanks and best of luck always from Scott Rickenbach and don’t miss his RED-HOT MLB Guaranteed Picks including another HUGE TOP PLAY ready for Thursday night action!

– Courtesy of Scott Rickenbach – experts.covers.com