4 Bold Predictions for the 2014 New England Patriots
No wins and losses. No final record. No Super Bowl score. You won’t find any of those predictions here.
There will be no shortage of those predictions in the season previews of various publications. There's no need for one more similar prognostication to add to the hundreds already out there.
The goal is to come up with benchmarks that stretch the limits of possibility to just within grasp. They’re realistic but not automatic. These will be well-earned accomplishments if the Patriots actually reach them.
Two Running Backs Rush for 100 Yards Each in a Game Three Times
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For New England to get the best out of quarterback Tom Brady, it needs a formidable running game. The talent in the backfield is there in 2014.
Ridley, a 1,200-yard rusher two years ago, is accompanied by Brandon Bolden. Third-down back Shane Vereen proved against the Buffalo Bills he can shoulder the load. Even rookie James White, who gained more than 4,000 yards in four years at Wisconsin, can produce when his number is called.
New England’s two-back approach rewards the hot hand. The backs will split carries until someone proves to be more effective than the others. This approach leads to opportunities for someone different to emerge every week.
New England’s 2013 backfield tandem of Ridley and LeGarrette Blount was the most talented duo since Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney in 2006. Yet Ridley and Blount had just one 100-yard game each, with Vereen breaking the century mark once as well. Getting a pair to triple digits will be tough.
But as recently as 2012 Ridley and Bolden turned the trick against the Bills. Bolden came off the bench for 137 yards, while Ridley pounded his way to 106. Buffalo’s run defense remained abysmal in 2013, as the Bills ranked 28th in the NFL. As divisional opponents, the teams will face each other twice.
So the question becomes, Which opponents besides Buffalo are susceptible on the ground? Based on last year’s stats, the Chicago Bears (32nd, 161.4 yards per game), Miami Dolphins (24th, 124.9) and Kansas City Chiefs (22nd, 120.2) might be the best opportunities for the Patriots to run wild.
If New England gets solid play out of the offensive line, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will let the line impose its will, and the backs will wear opponents down. The Patriots quietly had top-10 rushing attacks the past two years. 2014 could be their best year yet.
Marcus Cannon Selected to the Pro Bowl
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Who replaces Logan Mankins? The Patriots traded the six-time Pro Bowl guard in a surprising deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 2015 fourth-round pick and second-year tight end Tim Wright. That leaves a significant void at left guard.
New England took long looks at youngsters Josh Kline and Jordan Devey during the preseason. Devey started at left guard once, at right guard twice and at left tackle once; Kline started at right guard and left guard. But it’s possible neither starts the season opener.
According to The Boston Globe’s Ben Volin, Sebastian Vollmer was asked to move to left guard to replace Mankins. Stepping into right tackle could be Marcus Cannon.
The Patriots might not have to radically shuffle the line, as Cannon has the versatility to play guard. Coming out of college, multiple scouting reports projected Cannon as a guard in the NFL.
At 6’5”, 335 pounds, Cannon is a mauler. While he is capable in pass protection, his strength is run blocking. There’s not much a defender can do to stop Cannon when he's moving forward.
In the eight games Cannon started, the Patriots had their three top rushing efforts of 2013 and four of their top seven. He doesn’t deserve all the credit, but Cannon did factor in those results.
Cannon’s name was called often during the preseason as an extra blocker on run downs. He’s proven at right tackle and has earned the right to start now that there’s an opportunity. With Cannon part of the starting five, the Patriots could have a dominant ground game in 2014. If it comes true, he could earn a Pro Bowl selection.
Chris Jones Finishes the Regular Season with 10 Sacks
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2013 was supposed to be a developmental year for the rookie free agent out of Bowling Green. But pressed into action, Jones was a productive pass-rusher.
In 13 games, Jones had six sacks, giving New England the inside pass rush it had expected from free-agent addition Tommy Kelly. Five of Jones’ six sacks came in a four-week period. It took seven weeks for Jones to add a sixth.
With such a quick start, opponents began game-planning for Jones and took him into account on passing downs. Maybe Jones hit the rookie wall, which contributed to his lull between Weeks 9 and 16. New England’s porous run defense (30th, 134.1 yards allowed per game) may have worn Jones down as well.
A healthy defensive line should help Jones. With a revamped unit and Vince Wilfork fully recovered from a torn Achilles, Jones becomes part of a rotation, which should keep him fresh. Furthermore, rookie Dominique Easley was a disruptive defensive tackle at Florida. If he makes an impact, the Patriots will have relentless pressure coming up the middle on passing downs.
Jones on the field with any combination of Easley, Sealver Siliga (three sacks in five games played with the Patriots), Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich could be scary.
And with a secondary bolstered by cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner (suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy), the D-line will have more time to bag passers thanks to the coverage behind it.
With a year to improve his conditioning, a likely less-is-more role and up to nine pocket passers on the schedule, Chris Jones can get to 10 sacks as long as he recovers from his preseason injury and stays healthy.
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Jimmy Garoppolo Leads the Offense to Points
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The bar is set very low, so it is possible. What will make it tough for Garoppolo is the lack of opportunity.
Considering how few snaps quarterback Tom Brady didn’t take the past three years, it seems unlikely that Garoppolo will get enough chances under center to do anything. In four years, Ryan Mallett had just four pass attempts.
Is that enough for Garoppolo to lead the offense to points?
Well, yes. Garoppolo doesn’t have to throw a touchdown pass. He doesn’t have to run for a touchdown. He could simply hand the ball off for a score, whether from one yard out or 50. Maybe the defense forces a turnover and puts the offense in scoring position. Even if the offense goes three-and-out and Stephen Gostkowski steps onto the field and splits the uprights, Garoppolo would get the credit if he replaced Brady on offense.
The last backup quarterback to lead the offense to points was Brian Hoyer in 2010. If Bill Belichick truly believes Garoppolo is New England’s next franchise quarterback, the head coach will want to give him some mop-up duty. That could mean quicker hooks for Brady in blowouts. With more chances, Garoppolo ends the drought in 2014.
Questions? Comments? Send to randolphc82@comcast.net.
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