Notre Dame vs. Michigan: 5 Keys to an Irish Victory

Saturday evening, Notre Dame and Michigan will play the final scheduled game of a rivalry defined by contentious stops and starts.

What started with something as serious and vile as anti-Catholic blackballing by former Michigan athletic director Fielding Yost has turned into a rather petty "he said, he said" between athletic directors Dave Brandon and Jack Swarbrick.

Brandon claimed to be shocked when Swarbrick hand-delivered a letter on the sidelines before the 2012 game, declaring Notre Dame's decision to opt out of the automatic contract renewal.

While he won't talk about it publicly, fill Swarbrick with truth serum and his true feelings for Brandon would likely be revealed, unappreciative of the Brandon and head coach Brady Hoke's characterization of the Irish as "chickens"—something boldly broadcast to the 115,000 strong in Michigan Stadium last year.

But with the talking almost over and the football just a day away, the jousting now turns to the field, where several very important battles will determine whether Notre Dame or Michigan finishes this chapter of the rivalry victorious.

Let's take a look at five keys to an Irish victory.

Win the Turnover Battle

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Want to know why Brian Kelly has lost three of four to Michigan? His team can't hold on to the football.

In Kelly's three losses to Michigan, the Irish are a collective minus-six in the all-important turnover battle, throwing seven interceptions and losing three fumbles. You just can't win games between two relatively even programs when you commit 10 turnovers over a three-game stretch.

In Notre Dame's lone win against Michigan under Kelly, the Irish survived the worst game of Everett Golson's career and two bad interceptions because they forced an astounding six turnovers from Michigan that Saturday evening.

Looking at both starting quarterbacks in this year's matchup, Devin Gardner is more turnover-prone. In his 518 career passing attempts, he's thrown 17 interceptions, or roughly one per 30 attempts.

In Golson's 340 career attempts, his six total interceptions work out to around one every 57 throws.

Last season, the Wolverines lost eight fumbles to the Irish's four. So as long as Notre Dame can keep its turnovers under control—especially with Gardner playing on the road where historically he's been much worse than inside the friendly confines of Michigan Stadium—Notre Dame should have the edge.

Score in the Red Zone

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Notre Dame's red-zone efficiency was mediocre in 2013. The Irish finished 100th in converting such opportunities into touchdowns, something that cost them when they managed just two scores in their five trips inside the Wolverines' red zone.

However, Golson's return seemed to make an immediate impact on the Irish's ability to finish drives.

Three rushing touchdowns have a way of doing that, and the Irish scored six of six times inside the red zone against Rice, getting four touchdowns.

Golson's mobility presents problems for any defense in the red zone, with the quarterback keeper adding a wrinkle to an already strong ground game anchored by Greg Bryant, Tarean Folston and Cam McDaniel.

Add in the fact that Golson's mobility makes him tough to pin inside the pocket, and it's a different offense than the one Tommy Rees ran last season.

So while the Irish leaving the huddle in an empty set would have most Irish fans groaning, with Golson behind center and opponents spread out, it turns into a pick-your-poison situation for most defenses with Golson capable of exploiting the weaknesses.

We're only one game into the season, so this hardly represents a trend. But if the Irish are going to win, they'll need to finish off their scoring opportunities.

Run to Win

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As one-sided as Michigan's victory over Appalachian State was, the Wolverines managed to give up a 100-yard rusher.

That's not exactly a promising sign for Greg Mattison's defense. Even if Brady Hoke won't acknowledge it, the unit is dealing with potentially significant injuries to freshman phenom Jabrill Peppers and linebacker Desmond Morgan.

After watching Bryant, Folston and McDaniel all run for better than five yards a carry, Brian Kelly needs to establish the run and build his offensive attack from there.

Strong interior play by the Irish's Christian Lombard, Nick Martin and Conor Hanratty should test a soft Michigan middle that gave up plenty to a Mountaineers attack that's not in the same class as Notre Dame's.

The Irish didn't show much against Rice, running mostly inside and outside zone reads. Kelly and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock could have spent the week working up a few wrinkles.

More important than that is making a commitment to the ground game, with the Irish abandoning a balanced attack—whether forced or otherwise—in years past.

Give credit to the Wolverines, though. Regardless of Michigan's personnel, Mattison does things to make running difficult, slanting the defensive line hard while also sending the "Will" linebacker against the Irish a few years ago. With that said, keeping backside contain so Golson's runs don't do damage limits some of that ability.

Notre Dame's offensive line under Harry Hiestand has been excellent. On Saturday night, the ability to continually dictate terms on the ground will be enough to win the football game.

Start Quickly

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While Michigan routinely serves as one of Notre Dame's biggest games of the year, the Irish also have an inauspicious habit of starting slowly against the Wolverines.

If you're looking for a predictor for a gloomy outcome, try taking the path Notre Dame has taken against Michigan.

In 2010, it fell behind 21-7 at halftime. In 2013, the Irish were down 10 points in the game's first 10 minutes and 27-13 going into half.

Even in Notre Dame's 13-6 victory in 2012, you can't qualify the way the Irish started as fast. Golson threw an interception on his first attempt and threw another in the end zone before getting yanked, with Rees replacing him and the Irish scoring 10 points to close out the first half.

With the night crowd sure to be electric, it's important that the Irish capitalize on that early, helping sustain the momentum and keep the crowd in the game.

An early lead could force Michigan out of its game plan, turning the Wolverines offense one-dimensional and allowing the Irish's all-important ground game to control the clock.

Of course, the only thing a fast start can't do is stop a late-game collapse. However, there's no real strategy for stopping that other than not doing it.

So in the case that the Irish find themselves up 17 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter, they should try to avoid doing what they did in 2011. Notre Dame conceded four touchdowns in the fourth quarter of that contest.

Stop Devin Gardner

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Ultimately, this football game can come down to one simple objective: stopping Devin Gardner.

After Gardner played heroically last season in the Wolverines' 41-30 victory, new Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder needs to find a way to stop the senior quarterback.

As we pointed out earlier by his interception numbers, other defenses have found a way to force Gardner into making bad decisions. While his end-zone interception that turned into a Stephon Tuitt touchdown certainly fit the bill last season, too often Gardner diagnosed Bob Diaco's pressure schemes and burnt the Irish secondary for a big play.

Last year's receiving hero, Jeremy Gallon, is gone. However, the 6'5" Devin Funchess might present an even trickier matchup, especially with the Irish secondary still missing KeiVarae Russell and relying on the 5'9" Cody Riggs to be the No. 1 cover man.

New Michigan offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier certainly had success at Alabama, including in the 2012 Iron Bowl when the Crimson Tide embarrassed VanGorder's Tiger defense in a 49-0 blowout.

But personnel and scheme changes for Notre Dame have forced the Michigan staff to crack open the archives, hoping to find tape from the veteran assistant who spent much of the last decade in the NFL.

Just as the Irish prepare for new wrinkles from the attacking Greg Mattison, the chess match between VanGorder and Gardner will likely determine who wins the game.