Can Albert Pujols Win The Triple Crown? My Magic 8-Ball Says "Yes"!

Half way through the 2009 season Albert Pujols has a chance to do something that hasn't been done in the National League for 72 years: Win the Triple Crown. Last accomplished by Joe Medwick, also of the St. Louis Cardinals, in 1937, Pujols is currently leading the Senior Circuit in home runs (32), RBI (85), and is fourth in batting average (.332).

Let's first take a look at Pujol's chances of winning the home run crown. He currently has 32 homers while his closest competition, Mark Reynolds and Adrian Gonzalez have 24. While both are top young players, neither have ever hit more than 36 home runs in a season. Pujols on the other hand has averaged almost 20 home runs in the second half over his career and hit more than 36 home runs six times.

Chances of Pujols Winning Category: 75 percent.

In the RBI category, Pujols currently has a nine-RBI advantage over second place challenger Prince Fielder. Fielder though certainly has a chance to catch him. Fielder has three batters hitting before him who have an OBP of at least .320, while Pujols only has two. Pujols again though has a longer track record of success in this category.

Chances of Pujols Winning Category: 60 percent.

In batting average, however, Pujols is in fourth place (.332), behind Hanley Ramirez (.345), Carlos Beltran (.336) and Pablo Sandoval (.333). Despite being a prestigious power hitter, Pujols has been amazingly consistent with his batting average. In the last six years (2003-2008) Pujols has been in the top five of NL batting average five times.  This is the toughest test of the three for Pujols, and while the other three players are obviously great hitters, it is hard to bet against him.

Chances of Pujols Winning Category: 50 percent.

So will Albert Pujols win the Triple Crown in 2009? Simply, yes. While it is far from guaranteed, Pujols is by far the best player of this generation and has the best chances of winning the Triple Crown I have ever seen. Based upon his track record and current standing in each category, I wouldn't bet against him.

Chances of Pujols Winning the Triple Crown: 55 percent.