Michigan Wolverines 2009 Offensive Pre-Evaluation (Quarterbacks)

There are a lot of questions out there surrounding the Michigan Wolverines this upcoming season, particularly focusing on the offense.

These questions come after a terribly disappointing 2008 in which the boys in blue struggled horrendously, finishing dead last in the Big Ten in virtually every major offensive category.

Michigan averaged 20.3 PPG, 143.2 passing yards per game, and 290.8 total yards of offense per game which were all dead last in the conference.  They had 147.6 rushing yards per game, which made them seventh in the league, behind Indiana and just ahead of Northwestern.

Michigan was 44 out of 176 on third-down conversions, having a 25 percent conversion rate, and averaged 15.5 first downs a game finishing last again. When you add the fact that Michigan had the most plays in the Big Ten for zero or negative yards, then you have the perfect storm for a losing season.

The real question now is "where do we go from here?"

After an abysmal season, we Wolverine fans need a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it's a very dim light. In the spread style offense, our No. 1 focal point will be the QB position.

There are going to be several factors in how I rate each position group, with the goal of being more detailed and accurate than it would be simply assigning a letter grade or a single number as an assessment (7 out of 10 for example).

With this group the criteria needs to be precise, so the focus will be on five characteristics that make a good QB unit...well...good.

1. Talent

This is a unit that I want to say has all the talent in the world. Unfortunately there isn't much empirical evidence to base that on, at least not against college-level competition.

Nick Sheridan is the only guy on the roster that has played a decent amount of college football, and he didn't do very well at all. He completed only 46 percent of his passes, had 2 TDs to 5 INTs, and outside of the Minnesota game was almost completely useless.

To be fair, though, he did complete nearly 60 percent of his throws vs. Minnesota when he had good protection.

Tate Forcier is a true frosh who could become a true force! His reputation as the most accurate QB in his class precedes him. The coaching staff believes that with his early enrollment he is ready to make an impact right away. There has even been passive implication from the staff he is the leader in the race right now.

If spring ball is any indicator, as well as recent comments from the offensive staff, Forcier may put up big numbers this fall.

Denard Robinson has a rare combination of arm strength and athletic ability, almost reminiscent of Michael Vick. Although his whole game matches the likes of Michael Vick or Pat White, he is completely unproven at the college level. He appears to have the elite tools (speed, passing) to be a college quarterback. See 1:35 below for evidence.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/recruiting-football/AMP-WR-vs-DB-at-FNL-43612

Ultimately, this group has a couple of mid to high level four-star recruits who lack the ideal height to be five-star competitors, but may have elite potential anyway. Behind them we have David Cone (Scout No. 23 QB) and former walk on Nick Sheridan.

The talent level is there, even if it is inexperienced, therefore this portion of the unit will get a solid rating.

QB Talent Rating: 8.0 out of 10

2. Experience

This is an area where Michigan is just simply too untested to give them any kind of a high mark. The context of experience is live-game experience, and this unit just doesn't have much of it.

Sheridan played in 10 games in 2008 and started four, so that might get them a mediocre rating, but then consider that the true frosh will likely take most of the snaps in 2009.

Forcier enrolled early participating in spring practices, and started in the spring game so that has to be worth a point. Unfortunately, he wasn't live and was going against a vanilla No. 2 defensive attack, so minus half a point.

Denard is in for the summer and working hard in voluntary workouts, so maybe give that half a point back.

Ultimately, Sheridan's experience last year was valuable enough to give us a 5.0, and the freshmen QBs coming in early means they at least will know most of the playbook...Therefore, I give this portion a D Minus.

QB Experience Rating: 6.0 out of 10

3. Depth

If there is one thing I like about our quarterback situation, outside of potential, it is the depth of this unit. It sounds silly, I know, but Michigan has decent QB depth. Actually, it's awesome depth relative to the perception.

I think Forcier may need to stay healthy early on if we want to make any kind of a run at a Big Ten title or a January bowl.  But I still think Denard and Nick might be able to win enough games to get us bowl eligible themselves.

I'm NOT saying that all these quarterbacks will have equal effectiveness, nor that any of them are going to be particularly good this season. I don't expect consistent "playmaking" from this position until 2010 at the earliest, but I do think that all three may be capable of decent game management with what will hopefully be a better supporting cast.

QB Depth Rating: 7.5 out of 10

4. Scheme

Scheme is an interesting concept for projecting 2009's QB play.

When you run an offense such as Michigan does with an inexperienced offensive line and your QBs don't possess outstanding athleticism, it can lead to a 95.2 QB efficiency rating, which is exactly what happened last season.

This year, Michigan has two true dual-threat QBs and a third guy who is at least a balanced runner, and the practices are starting to feature what looks like a true spread team.

Having said that, Michigan is still a year off from having consistent read-option spread QB play, even though the current personnel is a better fit for the system than the 2008 unit.

QB Scheme/Personnel Rating: 7.0 out of 10

5. Intangibles

Having come off last year's debacle, the one positive about Michigan football is there is nowhere to go but up.

There will be approximately 10 returning starters around the quarterback this fall, and there seemed to be a much better rhythm in the offense this spring.

Sometimes giving a young QB confidence is all he needs to succeed. He doesn't realize he can't make all those plays out there that he isn't supposed to be making.

Overall, the QB position as well as the entire offense seems to have a rhythm or a tempo, as well as better knowledge and execution of the offense going into the 2009 season.

Sometimes the intangibles make all the difference!

QB Intangibles Rating: 7.5 out of 10

Overall Position Group Rating: 36 out of 50, or 72% of the possible points, giving this group a C Minus, or at best a C average at this point in the offseason.

I will soon be previewing the 2009 Michigan running backs unit, which is one of our most exciting groups. Stay Tuned!

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