MLB Predictions: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: July 6th 2009

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros - July 6 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: Houston Astros
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After getting blown out by a combined score of 22-0 in their games on Friday and Saturday, the Astros bounced back big on Sunday with a 7-1 win at San Francisco. Salvaging a game in their series with the Giants gives them some momentum as they head back home to Houston. At Minute Maid Park on Monday, look for the Astros to take advantage of a Pirates team that struggles on the road and also sends a “raw” pitcher to the mound.

Virgil Vazquez gets the start for Pittsburgh Monday. Vazquez has only made five starts so far in the majors. Three were in 2007 with Detroit and he’s made two so far this season with the Pirates. Already Vazquez was much shakier in his second start than his first. After a solid effort against the Royals, Vazquez had more walks than strikeouts against the Cubs and he walked three and gave up seven hits in his six innings. Both starts for Vazquez this season came at home and note that in four career road games - three starts - Vazquez has an ugly 9.49 ERA. Note that the Pirates are 15-28 on the road this season. Pittsburgh is also 11-23 in divisional games this season.

The Astros are 20-12 this season when playing against a team with a losing record and they should be able to take advantage of another losing team here. The Astros turn to Mike Hampton for this start. The southpaw has dominated Pittsburgh throughout his career. Hampton is 13-3 against the Pirates in his career with a 2.44 ERA and a .233 BAA. The long-term domination for Hampton against the Pirates certainly hasn’t changed this season. He’s 3-0 vs. Pittsburgh with a 0.90 ERA and a .171 BAA so far in 2009.

Hampton may indeed be the last pitcher the Pirates want to see right now. Pittsburgh got shutout yesterday and that was the 21st time this season that it’s scored one run or less in a game. With Hampton’s long-term dominance of the Pirates, don’t be surprised if this is yet another game where the Pittsburgh bats are kept quiet. Also, the Pirates Freddy Sanchez hasn’t played since Thursday and he’s their leading hitter. That’s certainly not helping the Pittsburgh offense and he could be out again on Monday. Consider laying the wood.