Green Bay Packers Day 1 2014 NFL Draft Primer

It's finally here, Draft Day. The start of a weekend where Packers fans experience the majority of the roster addition of the off-season. Also a day in which they inform themselves on who those players are.

Sitting at the 21st overall pick, the Packers could go in several directions. Ted Thompson seems to stick with best value available, and doesn't seem to target needs, but there are several players that one could point at the Packers likely having interest in.

The draft has been influenced by several moves this off-season, non-bigger than the Julius Peppers signing. But while some positions have been addressed, others, like safety and tight end, still remain question marks.

Who could the Packers target on Thursday? A list of targets and expert selections have been created to present who in all likelihood could be the pick at #21, if Ted Thompson does decide to stay with the pick.

A seven-round mock is also attributed to this primer, as an attempt to predict the most unpredictable draft day franchise in the NFL. After all, Ted Thompson is the only Packers insider on draft day.

Departures and Additions

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Departures

In the 2014 off-season, the Packers lost six players who contributed significantly in 2013. James Jones was a top three receiver for the Packers, and signed with the Oakland Raiders, whose general manager, Reggie McKenzie, was formerly with the Packers. Evan Dietrich-Smith, the Packers' starting center from late 2012 to 2013, signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. M.D. Jennings, the Packers' starting free safety in 2013, signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears. Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, and Jermichael Finley all played significant roles for the Packers, too, and are still on the open market.

C.J. Wilson, a rotational defensive lineman, also signed with the Oakland Raiders, like James Jones. Seneca Wallace, Kahlil Bell, and Robert Francois were all depth players on the 2013 roster, and they have yet to be signed. 

Additions

No signing was bigger than the Julius Peppers pickup. Peppers, who has been tormenting the Green Bay offensive linemen in recent years, has joined the team as a potential pass rushing linebacker or defensive end.

The signings of cornerback Sam Shields, nose tackle B.J. Raji, and outside linebacker Mike Neal were significant, too. While Neal may not be a starter, the team asks enough from their pass-rushers to where there are actually about three starting linebackers, which Neal figures into. That's not including any impact he may have on the defensive line, either, where he played earlier in his Packers career. The Packers were able to retain three "starters" with those signings.

The only outside free agent after Julius Peppers was Letroy Guion, who came to Green Bay via Minnesota. The former Viking is likely in the mix as a depth strong-side defensive end or nose tackle for the team.

Outside of the major signings, the Packers were able to retain depth players such as quarterback Matt Flynn, running back James Starks, tight end Andrew Quarless, inside linebacker Jamari Lattimore, safety Chris Banjo, and fan favorite fullback John Kuhn.

Team Needs

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Tight End

With Jermichael Finley currently not on the roster, the team was left with a vacancy for a starting tight end. Andrew Quarless was retained in free agency, but is by no means a lock as a 2014 starter. Brandon Bostick started to contribute more at the end of the season as a pass-catcher, but is still too raw to see full-time reps. Ryan Taylor, Jake Stoneburner, and Raymond Webber are all tight ends on the roster, too, but project to have more of an impact on special teams than on offense. Thompson doesn't seem to stray from his board, but look for him to get into a position to take a tight end on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft.

Free Safety

Since Nick Collins was let go due to injury, the Packers have yet to truly address the future of the position. Charles Woodson moved to a flex safety role for a season, but was soon let go due to his cap hit. M.D. Jennings was the free safety starter next to Morgan Burnett last season, but left for Chicago in free agency, and the team has yet to make a move to replace his spot. While Micah Hyde may move from the slot to free safety, it's not ideal; even Iowa moved him back to corner after his time at safety. Again, don't expect Ted Thompson to reach for the position, but expect it to be addressed by Friday night.

Outside Linebacker

While many expect Mike Neal and Julius Peppers to play outside linebacker, a pass-rushing role they both played in 2013, some think they'll be used with their hands in the dirt, leaving some depth issues at stand-up pass-rusher. While Nike Perry has rushed well from the weak-side, his current role is on the strong-side, as Clay Matthews just signed a large, long-term contract. After Perry, there's not much pass-rushing depth in a position where there are usually three players getting over 50% of the snaps. While Peppers may be in that rotation for a year, his contract is structured in a way which he's unlikely to be kept for the 2015. If not for that immediate 2014 rotation, a prospect should be taken to ensure the future of the position in 2015, possibly as a starter if Nick Perry does not improve. This is a position in which the Packers could be looking Day 2 or early Day 3 to make a move.

Wide Receiver

After losing Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Donald Driver in the past two seasons, and with Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson contracts coming up, Green Bay could look receiver earlier than most think. While Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are legitimate starting receivers, Jarrett Boykin isn't assumed as the third receiver of the future, which for most teams would qualify as a starter. He did have a big improvement his sophomore season, but the position could still be upgraded. A receiver to replace James Jones' old role seems possible, if not likely. This position could be addressed either Day 2 or early Day 3.

Cornerback

With Tramon Williams in all likelihood not in the long-term plan for the Packers as an outside cornerback, this could easily be a position that's addressed early. After Williams, Davon House is the next boundary corner for the Packers, who has been given many chances to win the starting job in the off-seasons of 2011 through 2013, but has yet to. With Micah Hyde potentially moving from slot cornerback to free safety, it makes a move even more likely. This position could be addresser either Day 2 or early Day 3.

Top Targets

1. Ryan Shazier, ILB, Ohio State

Ideally a 4-3 weak outside linebacker (or WILL), if Shazier falls to #21, he'd be hard to pass up. With Brad Jones' lackluster play after a contract, the inside linebacker position could use an upgrade. It's not like A.J. Hawk is getting any younger, either. Shazier could come in and contribute Day 1, allowing for some flexibility for the 3-4 defense. He's likely stuck in the 3-4 weak-side inside linebacker role, it does allow Brad Jones to potentially move to the strong-side on coverage (or passing) downs, where Hawk at times can be a liability. Athletically, Shazier if off the charts. The question is if he can hold onto the weight that he bulked up to at the Combine and his pro day. At this point, he's essentially Sean Taylor playing linebacker.

2. C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama

Another outside linebacker who projects to the inside for a 3-4 is C.J. Mosley. Ideally, he's a middle linebacker (or MIKE) in a Tampa 2 defense, but those are rare to come by in today's NFL. He'd fill in the same role as described before with Shazier. The issue with Mosley comes with the medical. It's hard to tell if he'd pass the test in Green Bay, but they have taken players like him, Justin Harrell for example, before in the early rounds. Mosley is a top tier linebacker, but the question becomes if Packers would be willing to invest on a bump upgrade, as opposed to filling a need, at a non-premier position when they may only get one contract out of said player.

3. Ra'Shede Hageman, DE, Minnesota

To scale, Ra'Shede Hageman's athleticism on the defensive line has only been matched by the likes of J.J. Watt, Haloti Ngata, and Dontari Poe, as of recently. The issue consistently brought up with Hageman is consistency and improvement. At 24 years old, after years at a BCS school, how much better can Hageman truly get? Well known is that he's a former tight end recruit and a former basketball player as well, but he's spent as much time playing defensive line in college as some of the other prospects coming out. If Hageman can put it all together, he could be a Watt, a Ngata, a Poe, but he could also burn out relatively quickly. With Thompson's emphasis on Combine numbers, I wouldn't rule this selection out at #21, should he be there.

4. Kyle Fuller, CB/S, Virginia Tech

With questions both immediately at free safety and long-term at boundary cornerback, Kyle Fuller would be an interesting prospect for the Packers. While having playing time at both positions at Virginia Tech (and a bit of linebacker vs Georgia Tech), Fuller makes a good fit for what the Packers need, especially considering their preference on length at cornerback. Before Fuller's injury, he was considered one of the best prospects in the draft, and he has seemingly recovered, based on his Combine scores. He could be an immediate, or long-term, solution at safety, or a long-term solution at boundary cornerback. One thing about Dom Capers' defense is this: it's hard to play safety. He'll split them to the point where there really isn't a free safety or strong safety, just merely two safeties who need to each read, react, and cover a lot of ground. Fuller, a student of the game, could fit well for what Capers is asking for. 

5. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington

To call this a worst case scenario seems harsh, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins may be in the mix at #21, but likely not the ideal pick. After coming off a foot injury at the Combine, Seferian-Jenkins has been doing very well in workouts. With a DUI on his record, some may view him as a risk, as far as character goes, but his potential matches up with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Giving Aaron Rodgers an offense of Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and what appears to be a finally solidified offensive line would be almost like a football cheat-code.

What Are the Experts Saying?

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Bob McGinn: C.J. Mosley

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The Packers need a safety but can't pass on Mosley, who would make it this far only if teams have reservations about his injury history. GM Ted Thompson seeks a safety (does he trade up?) a bit later.

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Dan Brugler: C.J. Mosley

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The Packers need help on defense and could benefit from Mosley slipping down draft boards due to injury issues.

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Bucky Brooks: C.J. Mosley

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Dom Capers would tap into Mosley's versatile skills as a three-down linebacker in the Packers' exotic 3-4 scheme.

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McGinn, Brugler, and Brooks all are looking for an impact to improve the run game of the Packers and make solid, reasonable selections for the Packers. Mosley has been touted by some as the next Sean Lee. I don't think the Packers, or Packer fans, would disagree with this pick. At this point, it's almost the consensus.

Mike Mayock: Ryan Shazier

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Shazier is a linebacker made for today's NFL. He has 4.38 speed at 237 pounds and can play inside in the base and all over the place in sub-packages. He'll be an immediate playmaker.

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Mayock, like McGinn, makes a pick for Green Bay ensuring improvement at the middle of the defense. Shazier can run around and make tackles with the best of them, destroying plays with his closing speed. The issue would be his size and ability to get off of blocks at the NFL level, but he's well worth a selection in the second half of the first round.

Charley Casserly: Calvin Pryor

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Pryor fills a weak spot on the team.

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A very descriptive Casserly makes a pick I don't think is likely. When looking at the safeties Thompson has usually targeted in Green Bay, he likes them big and fast. Pryor measured in at the Combine three inches under his listed weight at Louisville and didn't test above average in the timed drills.

Latest Rumors, Reports & Analysis

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Everything in Green Bay is Double-Locked and Sealed

As far as Green Bay's camp goes, it's relatively quiet. It it because they pick at #21, towards the end of a tier and seemingly perfect for Ted Thompson's best player available strategy, or is it because Green Bay is secretive about all their information this time of year?

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Love this Ted Thompson quote from last week. "For the most part, I’m the only inside information. And I’m not telling anybody." #Packers

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In the end, the only people who truly know what is going to go on are the member of the war room. You can study Thompson's previous targets to get a feel, but nothing is certain. Thompson, coming from the Al Davis tree of drafting via Ron Wolf, does seem to swing more towards athletes than most general managers.

Analytically, not taking into the account of a player's ability, only his body type, Ted Thompson has been willing to sacrifice weight for speed, and he tend to like length at defensive back. For those reasons, I would pay close attention to players like Ryan Shazier, C.J. Mosley, Ra'Shede Hageman, Kyle Fuller, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the first round.

7-Round Green Bay Packers Mock Draft

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Round No. 1, Pick No. 21: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington

The large, fast University of Washington prospect is a match made in heaven for the Packers. A threat in the redzone, Seferian-Jenkins could soon hit potential on the level of someone like Rob Gronkowski.

Coming in as the Day 1 starter, Austin Seferian-Jenkins would be one of the most impactful skill players in the league as a rookie.

Round No. 2, Pick No. 53: Terrence Brooks, FS, Florida State

A speedy safety in the mold of an Earl Thomas or a Eric Weddle, Brooks fits well for today's NFL. Since Nick Collins, Green Bay hasn't had much luck at free safety, which would change with this pick.

This pick would allow Brooks to take over at free safety from Day 1 in 2014, and it'd also move Micah Hyde back to the slot, where he currently thrives.

Round No. 3, Pick No. 85: Jackson Jeffcoat, OLB/ILB, Texas

A flex linebacker in the same mold of Brad Jones, Jeffcoat could be the steal of the draft. After peaking both early and late in his college career, the teams who have done their homework on the son of an NFL player would love to steal him late in Day 2.

Jeffcoat could push Brad Jones for a starting spot as an inside linebacker or join Clay Matthews and Nick Perry in the pass rushing linebacker rotation.

Round No. 3, Pick No. 98: Vinnie Sunseri, SS, Alabama

A smart, speedy safety hampered by an injury, Sunseri could be the enforcer the defense has been looking for. When watching the Super Bowl, Kam Chancellor set the tone from the first snap, and greatly impacted the game. Sunseri can be played in the same mold

While likely not a Day 1 starter, Dom Capers does use three safety formations, and Vinnie Sunseri would likely be the best "Bat" to contribute there and on special teams.

Round No. 4, Pick No. 121: Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin

The tall route-runner from Wisconsin would be a great fit for the Packers, who wouldn't have to look far for the prospect. The former quarterback figures to be an outside receiver, which would allow Randall Cobb to continue to thrive in the slot.

On Day 1, he'd push Jarrett Boykin for the outside job in three wide receiver sets. At worst, he's a fourth receiver in his rookie season.

Round No. 5, Pick No. 161: Brett Smith, QB, Wyoming

An early declaration, Smith is the type of quarterback Mike McCarthy would like to develop. As a passer, Smith makes good decisions, and as a runner, he'd be one of the best athletes at quarterback the day he gets drafted.

Likely a third quarterback in his first year in Green Bay, he's well worth a roster spot and could pass Matt Flynn for the spot behind Aaron Rodgers as soon as 2015.

Round No. 5, Pick No. 176: Brandon Linder, OL, Miami

When looking for swing linemen, who the Packers always take in these mid-rounds, Linder sticks out. Experience at both tackle and guard, some project him to be able to play center, too.

Linder could solidify the interior offensive line by becoming that swing lineman currently needed, due to the absence of Evan Dietrich-Smith.

Round No. 6, Pick No. 197: Beau Allen, NT, Wisconsin

Allen, like Abbrederis, is a homegrown prospect. With Raji's contract limited to the short-term, Green Bay could take a shot at a nose tackle to develop for a year in the meantime. Allen is one of the best in that role in the late rounds.

Likely a second nose tackle on the roster, he may have to spend time on the practice squad in 2014, but by 2015, he should have made enough strides to make the roster, if not replace Raji.

Round No. 7, Pick No. 236: Nikita Whitlock, FB/ILB, Wake Forest

A college defensive tackle, Whitlock projects as a back, be it on offense or defense. Like Spencer Havner and Korey Hall in the past, the Packers could look at that flex linebacker, fullback, special teams contributor in the late rounds.

While he's not likely to be the starting fullback or inside linebacker in 2014, or even compete for those jobs, Whitlock's availability on special teams could be a factor for keeping him on the roster.