NBA 2K14 Simulations for Entire 2013-14 NBA Playoffs
The 2014 NBA Playoffs are finally here, which gives us a great excuse to combine two of our favorite things: NBA 2K14 and postseason predictions.
We've decided to use the incredible basketball videogame to sim every round of this year's playoffs. There were no changes to any of the settings and only one simulation was completed, leading to some interesting results.
Let's go series-by-series and break down what 2K thinks of the 2014 postseason.
Note: this was done with updated rosters as of 4/19/14.
1st Round: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
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Simulation Result: San Antonio Spurs Defeat Dallas Mavericks in Seven Games
Spurs Leading Performer: Tony Parker, 22.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, 3.3 RPG
Mavericks Leading Performer: Monta Ellis, 23.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, 4.7 RPG
Notable Stat 1: Spurs averaged 107.4 PPG.
Notable Stat 2: Tim Duncan shot 60.3 percent from the floor.
Notable Stat 3: Vince Carter scored 34 points on 12-13 shooting in Game 7.
Analysis
After four games the Mavericks were on the verge of doing exactly what the Golden State Warriors did to them in the 2007 NBA Playoffs (upsetting a No. 1 seed in the first-round). They led the series 3-1 and were fresh off a 127-97 victory.
But the Spurs won 62 games in the regular season for a reason: They're a great team. San Antonio stormed back and won the series' final three games, taking Game 7 by just one point.
While Tony Parker and Tim Duncan played well, the Spurs ended up defeating Dallas because of a balanced attack. Game 7 saw eight of Gregg Popovich's guys score in double figures. That depth is likely to be the difference in the real-life series.
The Mavericks are going to need monster performances from Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki to pull off the upset, but, as the video game showed, that still might not be enough.
1st Round: Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
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Simulation Result: Portland Trail Blazers sweep Houston Rockets
Blazers Leading Performer: Damian Lillard, 20.5 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.0 RPG
Rockets Leading Performer: Dwight Howard, 19.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG
Notable Stat 1: Wesley Matthews averaged 19.5 PPG in the series.
Notable Stat 2: Blazers topped 105 points in each game.
Notable Stat 3: Rockets turned the ball over 66 times in the series.
Analysis
Well, that was unexpected. The Rockets, established as the favorites in this series and a team some think can make a championship run, were absolutely run out of the gym. The Blazers won three of the four games by double digits and the other by eight points.
The key for Portland, a team known for its offensive firepower, was its defensive ability. The Blazers held James Harden to 20 ppg for the series (25.6 season average) and under 43 percent shooting from the floor (45.6 percent season average). The Blazers also forced more than 20 turnovers in two games.
Unfortunately for Portland, this simulation doesn't appear to be repeatable in real life. Harden torched the Blazers to the tune of a 30.3 ppg average in four meetings this year and Portland forced the fewest turnovers in the league.
1st Round: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
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Simulation Result: Los Angeles Clippers Defeat Golden State Warriors in Five Games
Clippers Leading Performer: Blake Griffin, 26.0 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG
Warriors Leading Performer: Klay Thompson, 26.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.6 APG
Notable Stat 1: Steph Curry averaged just 3.4 assists.
Notable Stat 2: Six Clippers averaged double-digit scoring.
Notable Stat 3: Every game featured both teams scoring more than 100 points.
Analysis
The Warriors were able to pull off a first-round upset as a No. 6 seed in 2013. 2K doesn't see them repeating history this time around.
Los Angeles had control of the series from the start, jumping out to a 3-0 lead and never looking back.
The Clippers took advantage of Andrew Bogut's absence and dominated Golden State in the paint. Also, predictably, Blake Griffin took it to the overmatched David Lee over and over again.
The Warriors received strong contributions from Thompson and Curry with each averaging north of 25 points for the series, but little else from their teammates. As touched upon in the notable stats section, the Clippers deep roster was the difference.
Just as likely will be the case in reality, Blake Griffin's superb offensive game and the Clippers depth on both sides of the ball led to L.A. advancing.
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1st Round: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
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Simulation Result: Oklahoma City Thunder Defeat Memphis Grizzlies in Four Games
Thunder Leading Performer: Russell Westbrook, 31.5 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.5 RPG
Grizzlies Leading Performer: Zach Randolph, 18.5 PPG, 9.7 RPG, .7 BPG
Notable Stat 1: Westbrook scored 43 points in Game 1.
Notable Stat 2: Grizzlies never reached 95 points in a game.
Notable Stat 3: Marc Gasol averaged five rebounds.
Analysis
Memphis has an excellent defense, but the Thunder have a better offense, and that was evident in this simulation. Kevin Durant and Westbrook carved up the Griz defense, each averaging more than 27 points. But it wasn't just those two who had success. As a team, OKC shot better than 48.5 percent in each game.
The Grizzlies didn't fair much better on the other side of the ball. Marc Gasol, in particular, was an enormous disappointment offensively, averaging just 8.6 points.
Memphis simply couldn't keep up with OKC's firepower, which is certainly a storyline to keep an eye on when these two teams actually face off.
1st Round: Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks
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Simulation Result: Indiana Pacers Defeat Atlanta Hawks in Five Games
Pacers Leading Performer: Paul George, 19.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.6 APG
Hawks Leading Performer: Paul Millsap, 16.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG
Notable Stat 1: Paul George scored 35 points in Game 1.
Notable Stat 2: Hawks shot below 30 percent from outside three times.
Notable Stat 3: Pacers turned the ball over 59 times.
Analysis
At least in 2K, the cure for the Pacers' recent offensive woes is playing the Atlanta Hawks.
Indiana was uncharacteristically effective on offense, scoring more than 108 points in each game. The Pacers received double-digit scoring from six different guys.
The Pacers' defense also stifled the Hawks offense, keeping Atlanta under 100 points in four games and shutting down its three-point shooters.
It would be the perfect series for Indy to get back on track. Unfortunately for the Pacers, it's unlikely to turn out this way. While Indy is a strong bet to win the series, it's hard to envision the Pacers ever being that efficient offensively, unless the Hawks turn into the Philadelphia 76ers.
1st Round: Chicago Bulls vs. Washington Wizards
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Simulation Result: Chicago Bulls Defeat Washington Wizards in Seven Games
Bulls Leading Performer: Carlos Boozer, 21.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, .7 APG
Wizards Leading Performer: Bradley Beal, 18.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.7 APG
Notable Stat 1: Wizards scored 60 points in Game 2, lost by 45.
Notable Stat 2: No game in the series was decided by fewer than 10 points.
Notable Stat 3: Bulls shot above 50 percent in every game they won.
Analysis
The Bulls barely got by in this one.
With how great their defense was—they held Washington's two best offensive players, Bradley Beal and John Wall, to under 37.5 percent shooting—all Chicago needed was four decent offensive games to win the series.
They got just that, with Boozer and D.J. Augustin having some standout performances to push the Bulls over the top.
Still, the Wizards did a nice job hanging in there by forcing turnovers and preventing Chicago from attacking the offensive glass, something Washington did routinely to regular-season opponents.
But if the Wizards are actually to pull off the upset here, they're going to need Wall (13.7 ppg) to put a few more points on that stingy Bulls D.
1st Round: Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets
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Simulation Result: Brooklyn Nets Defeat Toronto Raptors in Five Games
Nets Leading Performer: Deron Williams, 18.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, 2.6 RPG
Raptors Leading Performer: DeMar DeRozan, 17.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.4 APG
Notable Stat 1: Marcus Thornton topped 20 points three times.
Notable Stat 2: Raptors shot above 40 percent from outside four times.
Notable Stat 3: Brooklyn turned the ball over fewer than 11 times in every game.
Analysis
The Raptors return to the playoffs proved to be short-lived in 2K, with the experienced Nets consistently attacking them with efficient offensive basketball.
Still, Toronto actually had a good showing, although the five-game series might not be indicative of that. DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Terrence Ross all averaged more than 15 points, while Amir Johnson (9.0 rpg) and Jonas Valanciunas (8.9 rpg) worked the boards effectively.
But there's little anyone can do when Williams, Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce put up 50-60 points a night between them. It's why the actual Nets are dangerous this postseason.
1st Round: Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats
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Simulation Result: Miami Heat Defeat Charlotte Bobcats in Five Games
Heat Leading Performer: LeBron James, 28.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 7.2 APG
Bobcats Leading Performer: Kemba Walker, 18.6 PPG, 5.2 APG, 2.8 RPG
Notable Stat 1: LeBron had four double-doubles.
Notable Stat 2: Michael Beasley and Greg Oden played zero minutes.
Notable Stat 3: Walker shot 35.7 percent from the field.
Analysis
The Bobcats deserve credit for grabbing a game here, but after three double-digit Miami victories to start the series, they never were able to really put any pressure on the Heat.
Miami played fantastic defense, holding Charlotte to less than 85 points three times, while LeBron, Dwyane Wade (18.0 ppg) and Chris Bosh (17.6 ppg) delivered on the other end of the floor.
A key for Miami in this sim was Bosh getting the best of Al Jefferson. The Bobcats center averaged 25.3 points per game against the Heat this season, but was held to 15.3 ppg in 2K.
In the real-life series, if Bosh can handle Jefferson like he did here, the Heat should get out of this series pretty quickly, given that they have just about every other advantage..
2nd Round: San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers
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Simulation Result: Portland Trail Blazers Defeat San Antonio Spurs in Six Games
Blazers Leading Performer: Damian Lillard, 23.2 PPG, 8.1 APG, 3.6 RPG
Spurs Leading Performer: Tony Parker, 22.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 2.5 RPG
Notable Stat 1: Lillard was the Blazers' leading scorer in every game.
Notable Stat 2: Spurs shot above 40 percent every game.
Notable Stat 3: Blazers had more second-chance points in five games.
Analysis
Our first stunner. The favorite to reach the finals from the West and a 62-game winner in the regular season is out in the second round. The Trail Blazers are officially Cinderella.
Portland rebounded from losing the series opener to winning three straight, before ultimately closing the series out at home in Game 6 with a two-point victory.
The difference here was the play of Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili. Both averaged less than eight points per game in the six-game set, which isn't going to cut it with the Blazers being so potent offensively.
Portland scored more than 110 points four times, with Wesley Matthews and LaMarcus Aldridge each averaging more than 17 points.
San Antonio relies on a lot of guys. This sim shows how the Spurs can become vulnerable when a few of those players don't play to their norm.
2nd Round: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
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Simulation Result: Los Angeles Clippers Defeat Oklahoma City Thunder in Seven Games
Clippers Leading Performer: Chris Paul, 19.6 PPG, 9.7 APG, 1.7 SPG
Thunder Leading Performer: Kevin Durant, 33.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 6.1 APG
Notable Stat 1: Blake Griffin scored 10 points in Game 7.
Notable Stat 2: Chris Paul had five double-doubles.
Notable Stat 3: Caron Butler averaged 15.2 points.
Analysis
If 2K is an indication of reality, we'd be lucky to see this series take place. This sim was an all-time classic, with the final three games of the series each decided by two points.
Considering how many talented scorers are involved in this series, it shouldn't come as a surprise that all of these games were offensive showdowns (both teams scored more than 100 points in each game).
The Clippers won this series because their depth offset the duo of Westbrook and Durant. Case in point: Game 7 saw Durant put up 40 points and Westbrook 28, while Paul scored 14 and Griffin 10, yet L.A. came out on top.
Aside from Butler, the Thunder did not get consistent production from their supporting cast throughout the series and it ended up costing them in the do-or-die game.
2nd Round: Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls
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Simulation Result: Indiana Pacers Defeat Chicago Bulls in Four Games
Pacers Leading Performer: Paul George, 19.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.2 APG
Bulls Leading Performer: D.J. Augustin, 16.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.8 RPG
Notable Stat 1: George shot above 50 percent in three games.
Notable Stat 2: Bulls shot 3-21 from outside in Game 2.
Notable Stat 3: Bulls won rebounding battle in three games.
Analysis
A defensive battle is what we would expect and a defensive battle is what we got. Indiana couldn't keep the offensive momentum going from Round 1, topping 100 points just once. Fortunately for the Pacers, their defense was impeccable and George gave them just enough scoring.
The Bulls played the Pacers tight, losing three games by five points or less. But looking at the results of the simulation, one has to wonder how different the results would have been if Chicago had Derrick Rose.
The Bulls out-rebounded Indiana, turned the ball over fewer times and had a better bench production, yet still were swept. This was a time when the Bulls needed that extra offensive weapon to get over the hump, and he just wasn't there.
That's surely going to be a problem for Chicago in the non-2K playoffs.
2nd Round: Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
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Simulation Result: Miami Heat Defeat Brooklyn Nets in Four Games
Heat Leading Performer: LeBron James, 31.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.6 APG
Nets Leading Performer: Deron Williams, 18.8 PPG, 5.8 APG, 3.7 RPG
Notable Stat 1: Heat shot above 50 percent in every game.
Notable Stat 2: Nets had three games of 15-plus turnovers.
Notable Stat 3: Heat scored 58 points in the paint in Game 2.
Analysis
While the Nets went 4-0 against Miami in the regular season, the Heat can win four straight over Brooklyn when it really counts, according to 2K.
Miami took the opening game 123-98 behind 39 and 10 from James, 22 and 10 from Wade, as well as 16 and 10 from Bosh, setting the tone for the rest of the series. The Heat's offense was simply too much for the Nets to handle, with Miami's shooters also playing well (Mario Chalmers and Ray Allen both topped 40 percent from outside).
While Brooklyn had success scoring against the Heat in the regular season, we all know Miami's defensive effort is a whole lot greater in the postseason and that somehow showed up in this sim. The Heat forced turnovers at a rapid rate and the Nets could never really get anything going offensively, averaging 96 points in the series.
Miami is doing what's expected (flipping the switch in the postseason) and is now poised for an epic conference finals matchup with Indiana.
Third Round: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
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Simulation Result: Los Angeles Clippers Defeat Portland Trail Blazers in Five Games
Clippers Leading Performer: Blake Griffin, 22.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG
Blazers Leading Performer: LaMarcus Aldridge, 18.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG
Notable Stat 1: Clippers had four players score 20-plus in Game 5.
Notable Stat 2: Lillard had four points in Game 2.
Notable Stat 3: Los Angeles' bench outscored Portland's in every game.
Analysis
Portland's magical run is over and Lob City is headed to its first NBA Finals appearance.
The awesome Aldridge-Griffin matchup proved to be a wash, with both playing excellently. But the other key matchup, Paul-Lillard, tilted completely toward L.A.'s way. Lillard averaged a simulation low 12.8 points, while Cliff Paul's twin brother was dishing out assists left and right.
As has been a theme with our Clippers' sims, the difference here was the supporting cast (see: Notable Stat 1). With Lillard not at his best, the Blazers just couldn't keep up. Los Angeles' top-10 defense certainly did its job.
It sure seems like Doc Rivers' playoff experience is rubbing off on his 2K players.
Third Round: Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
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Simulation Result: Miami Heat Defeat Indiana Pacers in Seven Games
Heat Leading Performer: LeBron James, 29.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 6.6 APG
Pacers Leading Performer: David West, 19.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG
Notable Stat 1: Heat scored more than 100 points four times.
Notable Stat 2: The Pacers out-rebounded Miami six times.
Notable Stat 3: LeBron scored 17 points in Game 7.
Analysis
The Heat are headed to their fourth straight finals in our experiment after, of course, another incredible seven-game series against the Pacers.
Indiana took a 3-2 series lead after a 119-115 OT win in Bankers Life Fieldhouse, but the Heat would recover and win Game 6 by 25 points and Game 7 by nine.
How fitting is it that Wade scored 30 points in Game 7 after Miami essentially conceded the No. 1 seed to the Pacers this season in order to make sure Dwyane entered the playoffs healthy? 2K clearly thinks the Heat took the right approach this year.
On the other side of the ball, Miami did a solid job slowing Roy Hibbert down after he destroyed the Heat in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals (22.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game). The Pacers center averaged 13.3 points and 8.2 rebounds, which the real-life Heat would take in a second if this matchup comes to fruition.
Unsurprisingly, James and Wade won this series for Miami. The two averaged around 50 points combined per game in our sim, which is something the Pacers just can't allow if they want to topple the Heat.
NBA Finals: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers
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Simulation Result: Miami Heat Defeat Los Angeles Clippers in Seven Games
Heat Leading Performer: LeBron James, 26.3 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 6.4 APG
Clippers Leading Performer: Blake Griffin, 25.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, .9 BPG
Notable Stat 1: Wade scored 29 points in Game 7.
Notable Stat 2: Bosh led the Heat in scoring twice.
Notable Stat 3: The Clippers out-rebounded the Heat by just nine.
Analysis
2K is predicting another parade in South Beach. But as was the case in reality last year, the Heat are going to have endure a grueling seven-game series to earn it.
Almost replicating our Heat-Pacers sim, Miami's favorite son, Dwyane Wade, stepped up in a big way in the series-clincher. He poured in 29 points in Game 7.
Many feel that if Dwyane can stay healthy and productive throughout this postseason the Heat will win it all again. The results of our 2K experiment would certainly back that thinking up. Wade is the postseason's greatest X-factor.
Dwyane certainly received plenty of help from LBJ and Bosh, who each had monster performances in must-win games. The Clippers are clearly a fantastic team, but they still don't have the top-tier talent Miami has, and that appeared to be why the Heat won.
Miami will become the fourth franchise in NBA history to three-peat, so says our sim.
The reign of King James and Co. continues.
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