Coaches Rankings: PAC-10 and Sun Belt Editions

Coaches Rankings—PAC-10 and Sun Belt Edition

These rankings are a combination of several factors, including longevity, coaching skills (recruiting, player development, game planning), and impact on winning.  For a full explanation of the data that was used for these rankings, see “Behind the Rankings” at the end of these lists.

Because change in winning percentage, as well as experience as a head coach, counts in these ratings, many times, new coaches will “sink to the bottom” as there is no data to use for evaluation purposes.

PAC-10

There is a strong collection of coaches in the conference right now.  In terms of ranking them, it is a very, very close race...for the second position.  Just like his team, Pete Carroll is far and away the class of the conference right now.

1.  Pete Carroll, USC.  His success is well-documented.  Seven straight PAC-10 titles, one BCS championship and an AP title and three Heisman winners.  All of this in less than 10 seasons on the job.

His winning percentage for his career at USC is .854, and it has actually increased to .872 in the past three years.

2.  Dennis Erickson, Arizona State.  Erickson has won wherever he has been in college football, and there have been a lot of stops.  Last season was a disappointment for the Sun Devils following his successes in 2007, but Erickson can coach.

In 20 seasons on the sidelines, Erickson has posted a winning record 16 times.  He also owns two national titles (with Miami in ’89 and ’91) and has tied or won six conference championships at four different schools.

3.  Jeff Tedford, California.  Tedford, for some reason, brings to mind unfulfilled promises, but the job he has done at Cal has been remarkable.  He has never had a losing season, and finished 2006 with a share of the conference title.

Prior to his arrival, Cal had won nine games in one season just twice since 1951.  He has done it three times in the past five years.

4.  Mike Riley, Oregon State.  In his second stint with the Beavers, Riley has had more success.  Oregon State has finished third or higher in the PAC-10 for the past three seasons, while winning a total of 28 games.

For the third straight year, Riley’s team also finished ranked in the final AP poll.  The Beavers began playing football in 1893, and this is the first time there have been three consecutive nine win seasons.

5.  Rick Neuheisel, UCLA.  Most of this ranking is based off the work done at Washington and Colorado.  Last season was just his second losing year as a head coach, and the worst record his teams have ever posted.

Still, he is 70-38 in his career, though his stints and Washington and Colorado ended with NCAA violations. 

6.  Mike Stoops, Arizona.  The Wildcats began to live up to the hype last season.  Stoops guided the program to a bowl game, but entering 2008 his seat was one of the hottest in the nation. 

He is 24-33 after five seasons, and has never finished higher than fifth in the PAC-10 standings.  This season should demonstrate if he is able to continue to build on successes.

7.  Jim Harbaugh, Stanford.  Harbaugh might well be one of the hot coaching names, but he needs to get over the hump with Stanford.  His teams have show significant improvement the past two seasons, and now the question is can they begin to become a consistent bowl team, or even more than that?

T8.  Chip Kelly, Oregon.  Kelly learned from Bellotti, and he will have fan support.  The 2009 Oregon team will be poised for success, and so the question becomes how well he transitions from offensive coordinator to head coach. 

He has only been a coordinator at a major college school for the past two seasons, and so, we will see what happens.

T8.  Steve Sarkisian, Washington.  He leaves the enviable position as OC at USC to take over a moribund Huskies program.  Sarkisian has learned from some of the best in college football.  Prior to coaching under Carroll, he played at BYU for Norm Chow and LaVell Edwards (DeWayne Walker was also an assistant on that team).

There is no doubt he will bring energy to the once-proud Washington team.  How well will his experiences translate on the field as the man in charge?

10.  Paul Wulff, Washington State.  Wulff inherited a tough situation on the Palouse, but the team regressed in 2008.  The Cougars had won three conference games in 2007, but was winless against FBS teams until last year’s all-time stinker of an Apple Cup.

The low point of an 11 loss season was the defense, which allowed 58+ points in four consecutive games. 

Sun Belt

The little conference that is way, way off the radar.  Still, it is home to the legendary Howard Schnellenberger.  The conference has no new coaches this season, and so there will likely be some open opportunities for 2010.

1.  Howard Schnellenberger, FAU.  As architect of Miami, Flo’s football dynasty, Schnellenberger revolutionized the recruiting process, and capped his time there with the 1983 national championship.

He is the only football coach in the history of FAU and has led the program to their two first bowl games (winning both).  At 75, he remains unbeaten in bowl games (6-0).

2.  Larry Blakeney, Troy.  One of the more under-appreciated head coaches in the nation, Blakeney has built this program from the Division I-AA level to the premier Sun Belt team. 

The Trojans have won three consecutive Sun Belt titles, and appear to be contenders for a fourth in 2009.  All-time at Troy, Blakeney is 144-72-1.

3.  Charlie Weatherbie, UL-Monroe.  Weatherbie's 2007 team provided one of the biggest upsets of the season, beating Alabama 21-14 in Tuscaloosa.  His career, however, has been less satisfying going 66-104 overall. 

His first four seasons with ULM were nightmares, with the program losing at least nine games each season.  In the past five years, however, he has led them towards respectability going 24-34 overall.

4.  Steve Roberts, Arkansas State.  Following a surprising 2005 season in which the Red Wolves won the Sun Belt, Roberts was considered an “up and comer.”  His teams have hit a plateau, however, going 11-13 the past two seasons.

Overall, Roberts is 31-41 in six seasons at Arkansas State.  This is an improvement over the previous six seasons in which the team was 17-50.

5.  Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State.  Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders since 2006, going 17-20 in that time.  His team appears on the verge of breaking through with a conference championship, but for whatever reason, all of the pieces just have not clicked.

6.  Ricky Bustle, ULL.  Since taking over in 2002, Bustle’s teams have shown considerable improvement.  They have won at least six games in three of the past four seasons. 

These have been the program’s first non-losing seasons since 1995.

7.  Mario Cristobal, FIU.  Cristobal is one of those coaches who many believe will continue to improve.  His team was able to do that last season going from 1-11 in 2007 to 5-7 last season.  With a few more recruiting classes, this might become the dominant program in the Sun Belt.

8.  David Elson, Western Kentucky.  Elson has led the Hilltoppers since 2003, guiding the transition from I-AA to full-fledged I-A (oops, FBS) status.  The program still has a long climb ahead.

Elson’s I-AA teams were successful, however, and if he is able to recruit, Western Kentucky could shoot up the Sun Belt standings.

9.  Todd Dodge, North Texas.  To be brutally honest, the “Dodge Ball” experiment is just not working.  Dodge is 3-21 at North Texas, and his defenses have been brutalized, partially due to the aggressive offensive style.

The 2007 squad allowed 74 points to Navy, while in 2008, Rice was able to a 77-20 victory.

Behind the Rankings

These rankings are not simply my arbitrary opinion but rather a combination of objective and subjective elements to determine the value of each coach in the country.  Ratings were calculated using the following:

Head Coaching Experience (up to four points):  Years of previous head coach experience

Previous Titles (up to two points):  One point for national titles (.5 if won with different school) and one point for conference championships (.5 if won with different school)

Performance over time (up to three points):  For coaches with less than five years at a school, the coach’s winning percentage at the school is compared versus previous five seasons winning percentage.  For coaches with more than five years at a school, the overall winning percentage is compared to percentage over the last three seasons.

Coaching Skills (up to 12 points):  This is much more subjective.  How well does a coach recruit, motivate, and develop his players.  At what level is he able to game plan, make adjustments, etc?