Predicting the NBA's Biggest Surprises in 2014

The NBA was filled with surprises in 2013, and the story will be no different in 2014. 

It can't be.

No matter how well we try to predict the events that will unfold during any given NBA season, something always happens that throws just about every person in the world for a loop. No one could have predicted that the Phoenix Suns would rise to such high levels in the Western Conference this year, and precious few were bold enough to suggest misery and misfortune for the Brooklyn Nets. 

Fortunately, I've got you covered for 2014. 

When I flew to Florida to ring in the new year with my family, I almost ran into a serious problem*. 

At the Denver International Airport, TSA officials found a suspicious sphere in my luggage and took it out. As they looked into the murky depths of my crystal ball, they decided to confiscate it, which left me in a state of panic. 

"No!" I yelled. "This is my livelihood! I need it!" 

They acquiesced as I started to make a scene, and I was able to retain my predictive powers for 2014. 

You're welcome. 

*This story is not true, but we're going to pretend it is. The portion about the existence of a crystal ball may or may not be imbued with more factual merit.

1. Deron Williams Doesn't Finish the Season as a Brooklyn Net

Ron Hoskins/Getty Images

The Brooklyn Nets are not moving in a positive direction. 

As the losses pile up, the pieces continue to unravel, and it's increasingly clear that this roster isn't built to compete, not even in the weak Eastern Conference.

Jason Kidd will eventually be booted from his spot on the sidelines, but that isn't surprising at this point in his rookie season as a head coach. It's also not bold enough to say the Nets won't turn things around and will fail to make the playoffs (more on that later).

What's actually surprising is that Brooklyn will pull the plug on this experiment, trading its most valuable piece for a combination of young players and future draft considerations.

Deron Williams has struggled during the 2013-14 season, both in terms of staying healthy and actually productive basketball. As Bleacher Report's David Murphy wrote: 

"

He can’t cut, his explosiveness is gone and every time he plants you hold your breath. He doesn't have the confidence to go hard to the hole so he settles for jumpers, but there doesn't seem to be much lift left in the legs. And then there’s what happens when he tries to defend.

"

However, D-Will still has value because he's a big name and isn't too far removed from playing All-Star-caliber basketball. Perhaps in a better situation, he could redeem himself, climbing back up the point guard ladder that he's plunged down throughout the year. 

The Nets hope so, and some other team will be willing to take that risk. 

Brooklyn can only fix the current maladies through a complete rebuild, and that starts with trading the point guard. 

2. Trey Burke Wins Rookie of the Year

Melissa Majchrzak/Getty Images

Michael Carter-Williams has enjoyed a phenomenal rookie season, but only when he's actually on the court. Last I checked, a basketball player had to play in order to earn votes for awards. 

The Philadelphia 76ers are much better when he plays—9-11 with him in the lineup and 1-10 without him—but therein lies the problem. He' has already missed 11 games, mostly thanks to the knee injury and infection he suffered right after his dominant start to the season. 

Even though Trey Burke missed the beginning of his rookie campaign with a fractured finger, he has already played more games than his fellow point guard. 

Has he been better? 

Absolutely not. It's impossible to make that argument, but he is helping the Utah Jazz return to relevance, much like MCW is doing with the Sixers. The Western Conference bottom-feeders are 9-13 when Burke plays and 1-11 without him, which gives them a similar disparity to the MCW-Philly splits. 

The Michigan product is also trending up rather quickly. He's shooting the ball better than ever and learning how to take advantage of NBA defenses. He averaged 17.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game during the last five contests of 2013 while shooting 43.5 percent from the field and 41.4 percent from downtown. 

He's on the rise, and the Jazz are going to give him every opportunity to continue winning games for them. That's his advantage over Carter-Williams, as we might see a mysterious malady or injury pop up when Philadelphia struggles to keep pace with the bottom of the lackluster Eastern Conference. 

This will be a close race, but it's conceivable for someone other than the lanky Philadelphia floor general to win it. 

3. John Wall Earns More MVP Votes Than Any Other Point Guard

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

John Wall is quickly rising up the ranks of the NBA's best point guards. 

In fact, you could make a convincing argument that only Stephen Curry and Chris Paul are better at the position as we kick off 2014. 

The dynamic point guard is averaging 20.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game during the 2013-14 campaign, and he's getting better as the season progresses. In December, those per-contest averages crept up to 21.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 9.1 dimes. 

He's an elite offensive producer, and that's starting to make the Washington Wizards into a more competitive team. Winners of five games in their last 10 tries, the Wizards are starting to climb into the thick of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. 

Now that Al Horford has been lost for the season, rendering the Atlanta Hawks' efforts relatively futile, Washington has a serious chance to rise all the way up to the No. 3 seed. I wouldn't bet against the team, especially with Bradley Beal gaining confidence and the rest of the team coming together around Wall. 

If the former Kentucky standout does indeed lead his team into that spot, he'll gain a lot of attention. Especially because Washington is so much better with him on the court. According to NBA.com's statistical databases, the Wizards allow four fewer points per 100 possessions with the floor general in the lineup, and they score an additional 17. 

That type of impact, along with a media-friendly narrative, team success and gaudy offensive numbers, can earn a ton of MVP votes. Wall might not be able to push past LeBron James, Paul George, Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge, but he'll earn more votes than any other point guard. 

Yes, that includes Curry and Paul. 

4. The Charlotte Bobcats Win a Playoff Series

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

As long as the Charlotte Bobcats don't fall down to the No. 7 or No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, they're in prime position to win a playoff series. 

And let's not gloss over the importance of that statement. 

Not only would advancing past the first round establish some semblance of legitimacy for a team that has typically functioned as the laughingstock of the league, but it would also give Charlotte its first playoff victory ever. The Bobcats made the postseason in 2004-05, but that lone appearance ended with a sweep at the hands of the Orlando Magic. 

This year, the team is different. 

Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson give them legitimate go-to players on the offensive end, even if the overall unit has struggled throughout the 2013-14 campaign. But with Steve Clifford at the helm, everyone is buying into the defense-wins-championships mentality. 

Well, defense won't win a championship for this team. But it will lead to a playoff series victory, especially when play slows down and each possession becomes all the more valuable during the postseason. 

With one day of 2014 in the books, Charlotte can still claim one of the elite point-preventing units in the NBA. Only the Indiana Pacers (95.7), Oklahoma City Thunder (100.5), Golden State Warriors (100.7), Chicago Bulls (100.8) and San Antonio Spurs (101.1) allow fewer points per 100 possessions than the Bobcats (101.2), according to Basketball Reference. 

Against the inevitably mediocre opponent that Charlotte will face in the first round—again, assuming it doesn't run into a juggernaut like the Heat or Pacers—it will reign supreme for the first time in franchise history. 

It would also be the only series victory to ever occur with the Bobcats name, as the Hornets will be adopted as soon as they're knocked out by one of the powerhouses. 

5. Los Angeles Clippers Make It to the NBA Finals

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Spor

The Los Angeles Clippers are developing into one of the Western Conference's most terrifying teams, even if their early-season record leaves them shy of the elite tier occupied by the Portland Trail Blazers, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. 

But which of those teams inspires confidence? 

Rip City is a legitimate contender, but the lack of playoff experience doesn't bode well for a run through the gauntlet of the West in the postseason. Oklahoma City was insanely good with Russell Westbrook healthy, but there's no telling what he and the team will look like when he returns. San Antonio is the best of the bunch, but a lack of victories against elite teams is hardly confidence inspiring. 

On top of that, the Clippers are really good, especially if Chris Paul and Blake Griffin keep playing the best basketball of their careers (they will). If Jared Dudley continues heating up and J.J. Redick returns at full strength, the team will only get better. 

Basketball Reference shows that LAC boasts the No. 8 offensive rating in the NBA, and despite its defensive shortcomings at the beginning of Doc Rivers' tenure in the Staples Center, the team has skyrocketed to No. 7 in defensive rating.

Want to take a guess at which teams are top-eight squads in both categories? 

Waiting...

The Clippers, Thunder and Spurs. 

This is an elite squad and one that is firmly on the rise. By the end of the 2013-14 season, that'll be perfectly clear. 

6 (Part 1). Brooklyn Nets Hand a Top-3 Pick to the Atlanta Hawks...

Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

I promised you more on the Brooklyn Nets later, and here we go. 

It won't be surprising if this team fails to make the playoffs. Even in the weak Eastern Conference. Even given the ginormous preseason expectations that have helped turn these Nets into laughingstocks. 

However, it would be surprising if they fell all the way down into the cellar with a bottom-three record in the NBA. Despite the surprise, it'll happen. 

Brooklyn is eventually going to blow the roster up, and the return pieces won't be as talented as the ones that are currently in place. General manager Billy King is being forced to take pennies for dollars, as he's working to dig himself out of a hole, creating financial flexibility for the future and gaining at least a few draft picks. 

But even if the trigger remains untouched, Brooklyn is working with a team that has no chemistry, no health and no system in place (thanks, Jason Kidd). There haven't been any signs of an upcoming turnaround, and things figure to get even worse now that Brook Lopez is out for the season. 

Let's take a quick look at all the NBA teams with sub-.400 winning percentages at this point: 

• Cleveland Cavaliers: On the rise as Kyrie Irving starts to play better, and there have been signs of a breakout in the near future. 
• Orlando Magic: Better since Tobias Harris returned. 
• Philadelphia 76ers: Actually play with heart, which allows them to outpace their talent. 
• New York Knicks: With Tyson Chandler in the lineup, this team will eventually get it together. It's not that different from last year's playoff squad. 
• Milwaukee Bucks: Pretty hopeless, but there is young talent and Larry Sanders is back in the lineup. 
• Sacramento Kings: Tough to imagine them struggling so much once Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins have practiced playing together. 
• Utah Jazz: Lots of young talent but pretty hopeless this year. 

If I were forced to bet my life savings, I wouldn't have much confidence in the Jazz and Bucks.

That's it. 

6 (Part 2). The Atlanta Hawks Add Andrew Wiggins

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Unfortunately for the Nets, they don't get to keep the pick they'll inevitably "win" in the lottery. 

The Atlanta Hawks get to steal it away from them, swapping picks and then watching as Brooklyn is forced to hand the less-favorable one over to the Boston Celtics. 

But this isn't really about the Hawks. It's more about Andrew Wiggins' status as the sure-fire No. 1 pick in the 2014 NBA draft not being that secure. 

The Kansas freshman was as highly touted as it gets heading into his first game for the Jayhawks, but the early returns have made us remember that hype is a dangerous beast. He's been underwhelming, even if he's shown flashes of the elite potential that made him such a sought-after prospect before his first collegiate game. 

But more importantly, other prospects have stood out. 

Jabari Parker has risen to the top of most draft boards with his sensational play. Joel Embiid is taking the world by storm, even though he has precious few years of basketball experience under his belt. Julius Randle continues to look like a monster for the Kentucky Wildcats. 

Wiggins is no longer guaranteed to hear his name being called out first at the draft this summer. He could even fall down to the No. 3 pick, going to the Hawks in these predictions (which may also be me allowing myself a homer moment). 

In fact, Jonathan Wasserman, B/R's NBA Draft Lead Writer, has him in that same spot in his latest mock draft— just going to a different team. 

7. The Los Angeles Lakers' Offseason Plans Flop (Kind Of)

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Lakers are banking on the future. 

Kobe Bryant has two years left on his recently extended contract, and that means there will be quite a bit of focus on the 2014 offseason. It will be the Lakers' first chance to create a stacked team that can help the Mamba earn another championship ring. 

But fans are going to be disappointed. 

The 2014 class isn't guaranteed to be an extremely talented crop of free-agent offerings. If Carmelo Anthony stays put in New York and the Big Three remain together in Miami, then the prospects are rather middling, and there isn't much opportunity for LA to restock instead of rebuild. 

However, there's a reason I parenthetically said "kind of" in the title of this slide. 

LA's plan doesn't have to center on 2014. Instead, general manager Mitch Kupchak can preserve the team's financial flexibility, allowing the Lakers to make big splashes two summers from now. It's the smarter decision, and it'll allow Kobe to turn what could be his swan song into a championship-seeking quest with an actual chance at success. 

It may be surprising when the Lake Show doesn't enter the 2014-15 season as one of the powers in the Western Conference. But take it in stride, as this historically excellent franchise knows what it's doing. 

8. Zach Randolph Joins the Phoenix Suns

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

It's no secret that the Phoenix Suns want a star player to join Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe in the desert. 

Ryan McDonough made that clear when he told NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper, "We’re obviously all looking for stars and we feel like we can put together a package as good, if not better, than any other team in the league if and when a star becomes available."

But even if the Suns are unable to turn their multitude of draft picks into a true star, they can get a high-quality player in free agency. 

Zach Randolph hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2013-14 season, but only if he decides to use his player option. Essentially, he's deciding between passing up $16.5 million and signing a long-term contract or facing a year of guaranteed money and potential decline before becoming eligible to make more cash. 

I'm betting on the latter and that Z-Bo will take his low-post skills to a team that needs them. 

The Suns are on the rise—there's no doubt about that—and it would be worth cutting back on the up-tempo escapades to employ a back-to-the-basket big man as talented as Randolph. Phoenix may not typically make the marquee signings, but this is an exception to the rule. 

9. Greg Oden Begins the 2014-15 Season as Miami's Starting Center

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Oden hasn't played in an NBA game since Dec. 5, 2009, when he experienced—surprise, surprise—a knee injury against the Houston Rockets after recording three rebounds in four minutes of action. 

Since then, it's been one setback after another, and you can check out the full timeline of his injury-plagued career here. Just note going in that it's a rather depressing read. 

But there are actually positive developments now that he's with the Miami Heat. 

Oden played one game during the preseason, recording a memorable dunk on his very first possession. It was more a reward for his hard work than an admission that he was ready to play, but it's an encouraging sign nonetheless that the Miami training staff felt it would be OK to let him on the court. 

He hasn't played since, and here's where I let B/R's Ethan Skolnick take it away: 

"

Oden, traveling with the Miami Heat on their West Coast road trip, has been expanding his pregame workouts. Friday, prior to the Heat's game with Sacramento, the center spent about 20 minutes working with Heat assistant coaches Juwan Howard and Dan Craig, storming out of the paint for closeouts, and running sprints. Sweating profusely, and clearly exhausted—he held himself up by the net at several stages—he did not seem to be in any pain. 

"

That's a good sign, as is the fact that Erik Spoelstra told Skolnick, "Our discipline with that to this point has been the most important thing, and just thinking big picture with him."

The big picture means that he'll eventually play, and the Heat still need a big presence. 

This would be more surprising that anything else predicted in this article, but I'm a sucker for redemption stories. Oden will enter the 2014-15 season as Miami's starting center. 

10. Terrence Ross Becomes a Household Name

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

If you're looking for the breakout star of the 2014-15 season, look no further than the Toronto Raptors. 

It won't be DeMar DeRozan or Jonas Valanciunas who becomes a household name, although both players are going to enjoy fine seasons and become quality rotation members (assuming DeRozan stays in Toronto). 

Terrence Ross is the man here—the same swingman who has averaged 16.2 points per game over his last five outings while shooting 53.4 percent from the field and 50 percent beyond the arc (on six attempts per game). 

The former Washington standout has every tool you could ask for as he strives to become the next dominant offensive wing player. His stroke from the outside is phenomenal, and he's bubbling over with athleticism.

Now that Rudy Gay is no longer in Toronto, Ross is finally getting a chance not just to play but to be a focal point of the offense. And he's thriving, as he can put up points both on the outside and while slashing into the paint. He needs to work on parts of his game—ball-handling, rebounding, passing—but we could be looking at the next "3 and D" stud. 

It takes more than great play to be a household name, though. 

Ross will score a lot, but the reigning Slam Dunk Contest champion also has such a penchant for creating highlights that he'll be a mainstay on YouTube highlight reels and SportsCenter throughout this early portion of his career. 

That will push him over the top.