Cincinnati Bengals: 5 Enormous Facets of Game vs. Chargers

It's been 24 years since the Cincinnati Bengals last won a playoff game.

24 years.

The last time they won in the playoffs, The Simpsons was just debuting on Fox, Patrick Swayze was molding pottery from beyond the grave in Ghost and Germany was still separated by a wall. 

Since 1990, the Bengals have had four cracks at ending the skid: in 2005 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, when Carson Palmer suffered a knee dive from Kimo von Oelhoffen (aka "Kimo von Season-Ender"); in 2009, when we realized Palmer would never be the same; in 2011, when a short red-haired kid entered the league with no formal OTAs or offseason workouts; and once more in 2012, when said redhead tried it again against the same Houston Texans team that beat him the year prior.

And yet, no playoff wins. But Sunday may be the turning point.

The Bengals are undefeated at home, and they're playing a team they've already beaten on the road, just a month ago. This may be the favorable playoff matchup that's evaded the Bengals for years.

Here are five critical matchups that will ultimately decide Sunday's game versus the San Diego Chargers.

Comparing Both Teams' Overall Offense and Defense

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Offense won't be in question this Sunday, not when the book on both offensives reads like it does. The Bengals have the No. 3 offense in the AFC, while the Chargers are No. 5. The Chargers are No. 2 in the AFC in yards per game, while the Bengals are No. 4.

Neither team is too familiar with offensive futility. The difference will obviously be in the defense.

Cincinnati, despite an insane amount of deflating injuries to key personnel, boasts the AFC's No. 1 defense. What's more, the Bengals defense is No. 1 in points per game, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs. 

San Diego is No. 13 in the AFC in yards allowed per game but is a respectable No. 6 in points allowed per game. This is the definition of a bend-but-don't-break defense. However, the Chargers are No. 29 against the pass, allowing 258.7 passing yards per game.

While neither team looks to be exploitable, it's evident which team seems more capable of nullifying the other's prolific offense. Not only do the Bengals boast a season's worth of statistical evidence to suggest why their defense should be favored against the Chargers offense, but they are playing at home, making it that much more difficult on the Chargers. 

Also, the Bengals are one of the five teams in the AFC that have a positive takeaway ratio at No. 5 (plus-one). The Chargers are No. 9 (minus-four).

Advantage: Bengals

Battle of the QBs: Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton

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One of the most important pieces to any team's success in the postseason is the quarterback. No one in their right mind is worrying about Philip Rivers, a proven quarterback once considered elite by some media personalities. After a couple of rough years, he's clearly rediscovered the magic.

Rivers ends the season No. 5 in yards and No. 4 in passer rating, which is incredible for a QB who finished with an 88.6 rating just one year prior. He's been everything the Chargers expected him to be this season, which makes him a tough matchup this Sunday for the Bengals defense.

By contrast, Andy Dalton finished just No. 15 in passer rating, and he ended the season with a less-than-optimal performance against the Baltimore Ravens, surrendering four interceptions. Still, prior to that game, he was in the top 10 in passer rating, and he's a respectable No. 7 rank in total yards.

The biggest difference between the two QBs is interceptions. Andy Dalton's 20 interceptions are the most by any postseason quarterback this year. Rivers has thrown just 11.

Of course, stats can be misleading. Dalton has thrown a lot of interceptions, but there have been many balls wrestled from receivers (two last week alone) and several balls off the hands of open receivers into the defense. 

Not to mention, it's really the pressure that dictates how good or bad Dalton can be. Still, the advantage in this matchup is a no-brainer right now.

Advantage: Chargers

Who Has the Better Running Game?

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The Bengals and Chargers are almost identical in the running game, with the Chargers boasting just a slight lead. Under a similar two-headed approach in the backfield, the Chargers are the No. 6 most efficient rushing team in the AFC, averaging 122.8 rushing yards a game. The Bengals are No. 9 in the AFC, averaging 109.7 yards per game.

On the entire season, the Chargers have called just five more rushing plays than the Bengals, which should illustrate more similarities in approach.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard had a decent day in San Diego earlier in December. The two combined for 34 carries together and amassed 149 yards. 

The Chargers' Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead combined for 21 carries and garnered 83 yards, but San Diego was playing from behind most of the game.

When you consider how close the stats are for the two teams, it's tough to assign an advantage one way or the other—at least until you consider the defense each running tandem will be asked to perform against.

To reiterate, the Bengals sit No. 2 in the AFC in rushing yards allowed per game. And while they allow four yards per carry (No. 6 in AFC), the Chargers sit dead last, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.

The running game became the focal point of the Bengals' 17-10 victory in San Diego back in December, and it's possible that could happen again Sunday. 

Advantage: Bengals

Which Team Brings the Ruckus?

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The Bengals are fourth in the AFC in sacks this season with 43. The only AFC teams to bring down more QBs than the Bengals were the Buffalo Bills, the Chiefs and the New England Patriots.

San Diego is just No. 13 in sacks (35). 

However, a key factor in this discussion is the good protection both QBs routinely receive. Andy Dalton enters Sunday's game as the least-hit QB in the NFL this season, while Rivers is the third-least-hit QB. In the Bengals' Week 13 win in San Diego, Dalton went untouched, while Rivers was hit five times and sacked twice.

The pass rush for each team will be vital for success, but maybe even more for Andy Dalton.

If you live in Cincinnati, there's a good chance you're familiar with the "Good Andy, Bad Andy" dichotomy, because for some reason, wins and losses are only discussed nationally on a QB level and very rarely from a comprehensive perspective. If you aren't from Cincinnati, chances are, it's altered your opinion on Andy Dalton.

Take, for example, an article from Bleacher Report Lead Writer Christopher Hansen titled "How the San Diego Chargers Can Take Advantage of Poor Play by Andy Dalton." I found the headline to be misleading, but the content was pure. If you are a Bengals fan, you need to read this, because Hanson has finally captured the essence of Dalton's struggles. 

Per Hanson: 

"

After seeing this, the obvious question that comes to mind is how many of Dalton’s interceptions are coming when he is pressured. This wouldn’t be that surprising because Dalton is not particularly mobile, and many quarterbacks struggle under pressure.

According to ProFootballFocus (subscription required), the answer is unclear because Dalton threw 14 of his 20 interceptions when not under pressure. When under pressure, Dalton threw just six interceptions.

However, Dalton’s PFF grade tells a bit of a different story. Dalton’s grade when not under pressure was quite good—a positive-11.7. When under pressure, Dalton had a negative-4.8 grade and was even worse when blitzed (negative-6.8).

"

The proof is in the numbers, as it always is. If you're interested in Pro Football Focus' grading system, investigate further.

In Dalton's worst games, he's pressured, and being that he's just 6'2 and weighs 222 pounds on paper, it's no secret that pressure brings this kid down quicker than it might others. Dalton is a paperweight. But with the right protection, he's a dangerous paperweight, as evidenced by his yards and touchdowns.

Considering the poor pressure San Diego has managed this season, it's hard not to feel good about Dalton going against this rush. 

Advantage: Bengals

Paul Brown Stadium: Will It Deliver?

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According to Joe Reedy of Cincinnati.com, the Bengals have around 8,000 tickets still remaining. One of the biggest facets of this game involves the boisterous Paul Brown Stadium, where the Bengals are undefeated this season. While they will probably get an extension in order to sell more tickets, it goes without saying that the house needs to be packed.

The Chargers are already flying in from across the country, making this road trip more taxing for them. Also, the weather doesn't aim to cooperate—it's expected to be 36 degrees this Sunday with a 90 percent chance of precipitation. 

Of course, that doesn't mean all is lost for the Chargers. The team boasts a respectable 4-4 record on the road and has impressive road wins over the Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos and Chiefs. 

But when you consider the fact that it's a road trip, the un-San Diego-like conditions and, hopefully, a sellout crowd that has witnessed the Bengals win all eight of its games this year at PBS, it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Bengals don't full advantage of their home field and finally deliver what fans have been waiting for since the start of the Human Genome Project.

Advantage: Bengals