Projecting NBA Ceiling and Basement for Top 15 2014 NBA Draft Prospects
With so much hype surrounding the top 2014 NBA draft prospects, it's important to gauge their professional ceilings and basements.
Not all ceilings are created equal, even for future Hall of Famers, and some lottery-bound ballers have more favorable basements than their high-risk counterparts.
What does Andrew Wiggins' ceiling look like compared to Jabari Parker's? Where do the three Kentucky prospects fit in? Whose basement is scariest?
Find out as we project both ends of the spectrum for the top 15 prospects.
15. Montrezl Harrell, Louisville PF (Sophomore)
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Vitals: 19 years old, 6'8", 235 lbs, 7'3" wingspan
Ceiling: Unless Montrezl Harrell radically improves in every major offensive phase, he won't be a star in the NBA. He's miles from where he would need to be as a legitimate force. Nate Duncan of HOOPSWORLD believes Harrell is more likely to succeed as a role player.
To be clear, Harrell won't be your average NBA role player. He's got the NBA-ready strength and speed to go along with a massive 7'3" wingspan (which is gargantuan when placed on a 6'6.5" body). He'll be a superb defender, competitive rebounder and an exciting player on the break.
Ceiling: 14 PPG and 9 RPG in prime, All-Defensive team, good third option (great fourth option on playoff team)
Basement: Although he has magnificent physical tools, they will be largely wasted in the NBA if he doesn't maximize his offensive development opportunities.
The franchise that picks him up knows the risk they're taking here. Harrell may be a one-dimensional energy guy who is little more than a situational reserve.
Basement: 6 PPG and 6 RPG, mostly used off bench
14. James Young, Kentucky Wildcats SF (Freshman)
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'6", 215 lbs, 6'11" wingspan
Ceiling: Sleep all you want on the 2013-14 Kentucky Wildcats. They may not go anywhere.
Don't confuse their present-day struggles, however, with James Young's NBA ceiling. The southpaw shooter can torch foes from distance or glide to the hoop and finish with his long frame.
Gary Parrish of CBS Sports pointed out that Young is much closer to Julius Randle's level than most of us realize.
Ceiling: 16 PPG and 3 APG in prime, great third option, (good second option)
Basement: In the event that Young doesn't cultivate a right-handed dribble (and thus a viable right-handed drive), he's going to be looking at more jumpers and fewer forays to the rim. That means more low-percentage looks and fewer free throws.
Young could also get burned off the dribble and have issues defensively (despite awesome length).
Basement: 9 PPG and 1 APG, role player, shooting specialist
13. Gary Harris, Michigan State SG (Sophomore)
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Vitals: 19 years old, 6'4", 210 lbs, 6'7" wingspan
Ceiling: Michigan State shooting guard Gary Harris doesn't offer eye-popping, top-five potential. However, his ceiling is high because he's a poised, polished 19-year-old who can score the rock.
Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News referred to Harris as the complete package, citing "the 6-4 size, the cool demeanor, the sweet-as-you-please perimeter jump shot."
As long as injuries don't hamper his career trajectory, Harris could be a top 10 starting shooting guard.
Ceiling: 20 PPG and 4 APG in prime, All-Defensive team, couple All-Star games
Basement: On the wing, Harris' less-than-stellar dribbling skills could lead to mediocrity, but that's in a worst-case scenario.
This super-sophomore has too many positive skills plus intangibles to sink as an NBA player.
Basement: 10 PPG and 2 APG, peripheral option, no All-Star appearances
12. Rodney Hood, Duke G-F (Sophomore)
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Vitals: 21 years old, 6'8", 215 lbs, 6'8" wingspan
Ceiling: NBA teams are looking at Duke's Rodney Hood not as a franchise-changing superstar, but a playoff-bolstering role player who can be extremely productive when called upon.
His smart, high-percentage scoring as a key sidekick could be the difference between missing the postseason or going on a thrilling run. Sports Illustrated NBA draft columnist Peter Bukowski explains Hood's mid-first-round allure:
"In fact, Hood's ability to be efficient and effective next to a big-time scorer should only further add value to his stock as team's look to build around elite players who can play together in the way Miami, Oklahoma City and others NBA teams have done.
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Ceiling: 16 PPG and 5 RPG in prime, dependable second option, couple All-Star games
Basement: Hood might get lost in the shuffle of equal or greater athletes, struggle to defend the league's top swingmen and fail to maintain an important role in the rotation.
Basement: 8 PPG and 3 RPG, inconsistently used reserve
11. Dario Saric, Croatia F
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Vitals: 19 years old, 6'10", 220 lbs, 6'10" wingspan
Ceiling: Even though he withdrew from the 2013 NBA draft and probably cost himself some money, Croatian forward Dario Saric's upside remains elevated due to his size, skill and feel for the game.
Whether he has the ball in his hands or not, he makes the right moves to set his squad up for success. B/R NBA Draft Lead Writer Jonathan Wasserman breaks down Saric's valuable identity:
"If you had to give him a label, a frontcourt playmaker would be a fitting one. Saric is an excellent passer who reacts quickly, hitting open men at the split second they need to be hit. His ability to create off the dribble and pass on the move makes him a dangerous facilitating weapon.
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A unique player and a unique set of talents could make for the next great Croatian NBAer.
Ceiling: 18 PPG and 8 RPG in prime, solid second option, couple All-Star games
Basement: Saric's athleticism and shot-making ability aren't world-class, so there's a real possibility he could underachieve as a scorer and defender.
His NBA team's worst-case scenario unfolds like this: Saric arrives and is unable to guard wings or post players, and he can only score wide-open layups or jumpers. If passing and facilitating size is the only thing he brings to the U.S., he won't last long.
Basement: 7 PPG and 3 RPG, reserve forward
10. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (Sophomore)
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Vitals: 20 years old, 7'0", 245 lbs, 7'2.5" wingspan
Ceiling: From a defensive standpoint, Willie Cauley-Stein's NBA ceiling is on par with some tremendous shot-blockers. The mobile center has 33 blocks over the past five games, and the extra paint protection hasn't gone unnoticed.
USA TODAY's Nichole Auerbach said, "Cauley-Stein's shot-blocking harkens back to the not-so-long-ago days of Nerlens Noel and Anthony Davis."
His game-long influence at the rim and big numbers suggest he'll be a top-tier low-post stopper at the next level.
Offensively, he's still a bit raw, but there are early signs he could be a rich-man's Tyson Chandler.
Ceiling: 14 PPG and 11 RPG in prime, All-Defensive team, couple All-Star games
Basement: While his ceiling is an upgraded version of Tyson Chandler, his basement is a less effective, less inspiring version of the New York Knicks' anchor.
Cauley-Stein would likely see similar scoring chances and a comparable offensive role, and he might block a similar amount of shots. However, his basement scenario revolves around him not being an "enforcer" like Chandler or Joakim Noah.
Basement: 6 PPG and 5 RPG, peripheral option, no All-Star appearances
9. Zach LaVine, UCLA G (Freshman)
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'5", 180 lbs, 6'6" wingspan
Ceiling: UCLA guard Zach LaVine's NBA draft stock is exploding, and why not? He owns the always-attractive combination of a smooth jumper and cat-like leaping ability.
He came out of nowhere for most hoops fans and media, but Hoopniks was all over him before he set foot in Pauley Pavilion. Their high school scouting report after the Pangos All-American camp is loaded with stuff NBA scouts love to hear when it comes to talent and high ceilings:
"Simply nasty offensively at times, the frantic fast-breaking style that was shown in the camp games probably fits LaVine’s strong suits as a player. He possesses an advanced offensive game, as a consistent outside shooter, tight handle to create scoring opportunities, and the creativity and athleticism to finish on the break.
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In half-court scenarios, LaVine can score several different ways, and his transition talents are abundant. Once he masters the finer points of defense and positioning, he'll be a highly desirable standout.
Ceiling: 25 PPG in prime, top combo guard, multiple All-Star games
Basement: LaVine may never build the strength or instincts required to operate as a slasher, so he might struggle somewhat like Jeremy Lamb. If you take away half-court slashes and mid-range inventions, his game is severely limited to fast break dunks and occasional three-pointers.
Basement: 11 PPG and 2 APG, fourth option, no All-Star appearances
8. Noah Vonleh, Indiana F (Freshman)
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'10", 240 lbs, 7'4" wingspan
Ceiling: Indiana freshman forward Noah Vonleh might not lead the Hoosiers on a deep NCAA tournament run this spring, but he'll be in the lottery conversation all season.
Why? Because he has a strong frame, an eagle's wingspan and the makings of inside-outside production.
His rebounding and scoring instincts are so good, in fact, that Aran Smith of NBADraft.net's first impression included NBA All-Star potential. Smith said that Vonleh's future stardom is merely a matter of confidence for the youngster.
As he buries jumpers, gobbles up boards and finishes strong, the Association will soon know his name.
Ceiling: 20 PPG and 10 RPG in prime, multiple All-Star games, 1B option on playoff-caliber team
Basement: Like every other McDonald's All-American, Noah says he wants to be great. But even well-intentioned, hard-working prospects can fall short of NBA aspirations because they don't have the makeup of a star.
Size-wise, he's not a tweener, but skill-wise, he may get caught between being a dominant power forward and a competent small forward. He could slip into being a role player who doesn't take over games or lead his team to playoff wins.
Basement: 10 PPG and 5 RPG, no All-Star appearances
7. Aaron Gordon, Arizona PF (Freshman)
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'9", 225 lbs, 6'11.5" wingspan
Ceiling: Hustle, vertical prowess and rebounding will be Aaron Gordon's bread and butter early in his career, but versatility and compatibility may become the hallmarks of his prime.
His nose for the ball and end-to-end athleticism for Arizona are striking, but he has an intriguing (albeit budding) repertoire that includes college triples and drives from the wing. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express suggested he'll be able to excel in both forward positions, as "he's likely talented enough to make it work wherever he plays."
Gordon possesses the upside to be a No. 1 option, or maybe just a 1B to someone else's 1A. With the ability to guard 2s, 3s and 4s, he will be leaned on for heavy minutes. The offensive results are up to him and his skill development.
Ceiling: 22 PPG and 12 RPG in prime, perennial All-Star, perennial All-Defensive team, Champion, Hall of Famer
Basement: It would be a shame if Gordon turned out to be nothing more than a straight-line slasher and a significantly limited offensive asset.
Failing to acquire a back-to-the-basket approach and constantly needing help to score would spell basement-type numbers from the Wildcat freshman.
Basement: 8 PPG and 5 RPG, role player, no All-Star appearances
6. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State PG (Sophomore)
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Vitals: 19 years old, 6'4", 220 lbs, 6'8" wingspan
Ceiling: Much like the other elite prospects in this loaded lottery group, Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart owns a trait that no other 2013-14 college hoops star can claim:
"He's the only guy in this draft that can dominate the game on both ends of the floor," one scout told ESPN's Jeff Goodman.
Smart's effectiveness as an on-ball and weak-side defender at age 19 makes us wonder how suffocating he'll be once he's a four-year pro at age 23. In addition, his offensive output will blossom once his jumper attains consistency.
By scoring, facilitating and defending, he could be one of the most valuable guards in the league.
Ceiling: 24 PPG and 7 APG in prime, perennial All-Star, perennial All-Defensive team, Champion, Hall of Famer
Basement: At worst, Smart will be a high-level defender who contributes as a respectable combo guard. If he doesn't hone his ball-handling skills and show consistency from NBA range, he won't sniff the prominence he could have.
A turnover-prone playmaker with an unreliable jumper won't thrive in the league, as he wouldn't be able to serve as a go-to guy.
Basement: 10 PPG and 4 APG, reserve guard, no All-Star appearances
5. Julius Randle, Kentucky PF (Freshman)
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Vitals: 19 years old, 6'9", 250 lbs, 6'11" wingspan
Ceiling: When trying to assess the value of 2014's top prospects, "ceiling level" is a factor that could bump Julius Randle to the fourth or fifth pick instead of top three. CBS Sports' Gary Parrish reminds us that even though he might not have the highest ceiling, it's still extremely high.
"...the consensus is that Randle's so-called ceiling seems to be lower than the ceilings belonging to Wiggins, Parker and Embiid, and that's why it's more likely that Randle will go fourth than first in next June's NBA Draft.
That said, can you imagine getting Randle fourth!?!"
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Randle's athleticism is slightly less explosive than Parker and Wiggins, and he doesn't project to be as dynamic from a playmaking standpoint. Nevertheless, his best-case outlook is in All-Star territory. His lofty future includes lots of rebounds and lots of wins.
Ceiling: 23 PPG and 10 RPG in prime, perennial All-Star, Champion, borderline Hall of Famer
Basement: A player with Randle's relentless energy, rebounding and low-post prowess can only fall so low. He can score using post moves or face-up moves, so when he gets his hands on the ball in the paint, it's tough to stop him.
What if that's all he amounts to? Rebounding and close-range buckets are great, but today's league is fueled by guards, wings and playmaking forwards. He may not be his team's focal point, which would hurt his overall influence league-wide.
Basement: 12 PPG and 6 RPG, bounce between starting and bench
4. Joel Embiid, Kansas Jayhawks C (Freshman)
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Vitals: 19 years old, 7'0", 250 lbs, 7'5" wingspan
Ceiling: "No college player in America has a higher ceiling than Embiid, and that's if he has one at all."
That's what B/R College Basketball National Lead Writer Jason King had to say about Joel Embiid's NBA potential.
The seven-foot prodigy is already carving up opposing big men with his footwork and sneaky agility. As reported by King, Kansas head coach Bill Self pinpointed why Embiid's future is so bright:
"He moves like a 6-footer with his feet. He can move in a way that very few guys in the past have been able to move. There's a skill set there that very few 7-footers have. He has a natural feel, natural instincts. Of all the guys on our team, he's the most instinctive basketball guy we have.
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Once he gets a feel for the NBA style of play, look out.
Ceiling: 25 PPG and Blocks Leader in prime, perennial All-Star, MVP, Champion, Hall of Famer
Basement: You don't have to delve deep in the history books to remember some high-profile post players who failed miserably (see: Hasheem Thabeet, Darko Milicic, Kwame Brown, etc.).
We're not suggesting Embiid's basement is similar to those busts, but it's a reminder that some centers just don't thrive in physical situations against bruisers like Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, Tyson Chandler, etc.
A soft presence in the paint would severely hinder his nightly production.
Basement: 9 PPG and 6 RPG, no All-Star appearances
3. Dante Exum, Australia PG
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'6", 190 lbs, 6'9" wingspan
Ceiling: According to Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix, one NBA executive called Dante Exum the "whole package."
Meaning, he has a favorable chance to achieve greatness.
Exum's length and versatility make him a candidate to lead his NBA squad with points and assists, not to mention top-notch defense. His fluid athleticism and sneaky foot speed will be dangerous to even the best pro adversaries, and his instincts and unselfishness could lead to deep postseason success.
He's an enigmatic risk/reward pick, so several GMs have visions of Exum wheeling and dealing his way to stardom.
Ceiling: 24 PPG or Assists Leader in prime, perennial All-Star, MVP, Champion, Hall of Famer
Basement: This is where things get a little dicey for Exum, as his mysteriousness could ultimately lead to a big letdown.
If he doesn't make significant progress as a jump-shooter and gets caught in-between positions, he could have an underwhelming impact. We're talking role-player, non-star type of impact.
Basement: 12 PPG and 4 APG, no All-Star appearances
2. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas SF (Freshman)
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'8", 200 lbs, 7'0" wingspan
Ceiling: While Andrew Wiggins isn't considered the runaway No. 1 prospect he was a few months ago, he's still an incredibly rare specimen with No. 1 stuff—and enormous NBA potential.
Once he learns how to utilize his physical tools offensively and grows into his 6'8" frame, he could be an unstoppable force as a scorer and shot-maker. Meanwhile, he has the raw material to become an elite defender. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star breaks down Wiggins' unique advantage:
"He is quick enough to guard opposing point guards, long enough to bother opposing centers. He is so quick off the floor that a high school coach who knew Wiggins once described him as an “octopus with a 40-inch vertical (leap). In other words, Wiggins is long enough to give himself a cushion while guarding the ball. Opposing players can’t drive around him, and they still can’t shoot over him.
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Ceiling: 27 PPG in prime, perennial All-Star and All-Defensive team, Hall of Famer
Basement: The odds of Wiggins becoming a complete bust are quite thin. However, there is the possibility of him becoming a disappointment.
He doesn't have the nuanced footwork to be a fully effective scorer. He might never come close to the mid-range shot-creating caliber of guys like Jordan, Kobe, Durant and LeBron.
The only thing that could really send him to a mediocre NBA career is a lack of killer instinct and consistent winning mindset.
Basement: 16 PPG, two or fewer All-Star appearances
1. Jabari Parker, Duke F (Freshman)
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Vitals: 18 years old, 6'8", 235 lbs, 7'0" wingspan
Ceiling: The hot term to describe Jabari Parker these days is "NBA-ready" or "immediate star."
That's exciting in itself, but Parker is even more appealing when we think of his prime in a best-case scenario. He could develop into a versatile champion in the mold of Paul Pierce. Sports Illustrated's Peter Bukowski details the similarities:
"In some ways, he's similar to Paul Pierce: Parker lacks a lean frame, but has tremendous strength and surprising athleticism. He's unafraid as a scorer and can bully smaller wings on the block. If Parker can develop the same sort of craftiness on the defensive end to compensate for his lack of elite quickness, he could pester talented players the same way Pierce has in the NBA.
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He may impact every area of the game (and compete for multiple titles in the process).
Ceiling: 27 PPG in prime, perennial All-Star, multiple MVPs, NBA champion, Hall of Famer
Basement: Given how polished Parker is at such a young age, it's safe to say his "basement" isn't really much of a basement.
It's possible that he could struggle against like-sized forwards and equally athletic defenders, so he may not become a consistently dominant weapon. That being said, it's hard to imagine him not being a champion-level second option or earn multiple All-Star bids.
Basement: 17 PPG, two or fewer All-Star appearances
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