Best Trade Destinations and Fits for Toronto Raptors' Kyle Lowry
The race to acquire Kyle Lowry is heating up.
Over the last few days it's become increasingly clear that the Toronto Raptors are looking more towards the future and are prepared to rebuild.
That makes Lowry one of the most sought-after trade pieces on the market, and according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets are already battling for the mercurial 27-year-old point guard.
In addition to the Nets and Knicks, the Golden State Warriors may be looking to acquire Lowry as well, according to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News.
Any team trading for Lowry has to be prepared for him to walk at the end of the season, as Lowry's contract is expiring and he will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. That makes Lowry's suitors all fairly similar: Each team is looking to win now, so an even talent swap is a little counterproductive.
That means the most likely haul for Toronto is future draft picks or the opportunity to unload salary. With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the potential trade scenarios and destinations for Lowry.
New York Knicks
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Toronto Raptors Receive: PG Raymond Felton (3 years, $11.3 million), SF Metta World Peace (2 years, $3.1 million) and a 2018 first-round draft pick.
New York Knicks Receive: Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million).
Why New York Does It: We'll go straight from Wojnarowski's report here, even though ESPN's Chris Broussard is saying this deal is being held up by New York's refusal to give up a first-round pick.
Then there's this from ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
"And at last report, Toronto was said to be seeking two of the following three: Shumpert, Hardaway Jr., Future First."
If New York did include the future first-round draft pick, it would be sort of like the Andrea Bargnani trade all over again. It's hard to paint this as anything other than a desperate, reactionary move based on Felton's injury, but at least it would give New York a capable shooter and scorer at a position of need. The fit is right, but the price is probably wrong.
Why Toronto Does It: Acquiring a first-round pick from a franchise that could be in complete disarray is always appealing, as is picking up a young player on a rookie-scale deal. Whether it's the pick, Iman Shumpert or Hardaway Jr., it's easy to see why the Raptors would cash in on Lowry now, especially since the Raptors likely have zero interest in keeping him beyond this year.
The biggest part of any rebuild is acquiring assets. Felton is necessary to make the salaries match and World Peace is nothing more than waiver wire fodder, but nabbing a draft pick and Shumpert or Hardaway Jr. would make this a steal.
Brooklyn Nets
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Toronto Raptors Receive: SG Jason Terry (2 years, $11.4 million), PF Mason Plumlee (4 years, $6.3 million), SF Tornike Shengelia (1 year, $788,872), PG Tyshawn Taylor (1 year, $788,872), the rights to SF Bojan Bogdanovic and a 2018 second-round pick.
Brooklyn Nets Receive: PG Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million) and SF Steve Novak (3 years, $10.8 million).
Why Toronto Does It: This would all depend on Ujiri's evaluation of Mason Plumlee. The rookie big man was the 22nd pick in this year's draft, and he's been pretty impressive so far this year for Brooklyn. Plumlee's great athleticism is certainly promising, and his brother's success in Phoenix might not hurt his trade value, either.
While taking back Terry's deal isn't ideal, his two-year contract meshes much better with the salary timeline of the rest of Toronto's roster than Steve Novak's three-year deal. There's always the chance that Terry decides to hang up his sneakers as well.
Bogdanovic is an interesting Croatian prospect that Brooklyn wanted to bring over this season, but couldn't because of a complicated buyout. For what it's worth, Raptors GM Masai Ujiri attended Bogdanovic's game overseas today.
Taylor, Shengelia and the future second-round pick are throw-ins, but getting a look at a few young players who have shown flashes in the past might be worthwhile. It seems likely that something would pan out here.
Why Brooklyn Does It: If the Nets are still operating under the premise that they're a championship contender in Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce's rapidly expiring window, then making a move for a talented scorer like Lowry would make sense.
While it's yet to be seen just how amenable Lowry would be to a sixth-man role, he could conceivably play in the same backcourt as Deron Williams for stretches and add some speed and defense to Brooklyn's painfully slow lineup.
All in all this would be a pretty limited risk compared to what Brooklyn has done in the past. So long as trading Terry didn't alienate his former Celtics teammates, Lowry would provide a pretty substantial upgrade and help get things turned around.
Chicago Bulls
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Toronto Raptors Receive: PG/SG Kirk Hinrich (1 year, $4 million) and SF Tony Snell (4 years, $6.6 million).
Chicago Bulls Receive: PG Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million).
Why Toronto Does It: This one is simple for Toronto. Exchanging Lowry for Hinrich is an easy swap of expiring contracts, and to make up for the difference in talent, Ujiri gets to pluck Tony Snell away from the Bulls.
Snell was the 20th pick in the draft, and he's been forced into early playing time that head coach Tom Thibodeau probably wouldn't hand out if he had more wing depth available. Snell has been pretty lackluster early on, but that's to be expected in a system that has a very steep learning curve.
Although Toronto already has Terrence Ross and DeMar DeRozan on the wings, Snell could provide some insurance if the Raptors want to truly overhaul the roster and move DeRozan at some point. Hinrich could also be flipped to a contender at the deadline this year.
Why Chicago Does It: The Bulls are another would-be title contender holding on to a thread. Dealing Snell would be extremely difficult to do, especially with Luol Deng's contract expiring.
That said, if the Bulls want to try and do some damage in the postseason, Lowry would represent a pretty sizable upgrade offensively from Hinrich.
Perhaps playing in a big market for a playoff team in a contract year would bring the best out of Lowry, as he has all the tools to be a really tenacious defender. Shoot-first point guards seem to fit in nicely with Thibodeau's offense, so maybe renting Lowry would help the wheels from falling off completely. This wouldn't be the best move for the future, but it would help the present.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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Toronto Raptors Receive: PG J.J. Barea (2 years, $9.1 million), SF Shabazz Muhammad (4 years, $8.7 million) and C Gorgui Dieng (4 years, $6.4 million).
Minnesota Timberwolves Receive: PG Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million)
Why Toronto Does It: Is taking on Barea's salary next year ideal? No, but it's a necessary evil for the right to acquire two first-round picks from this year in Muhammad and Dieng. Although Muhammad's stock is as low as it has probably ever been, there is a lot of scoring talent there. Adding another post-oriented wing player may be a little scary, but this might ease some of the pain of trading DeMar DeRozan, if that time ever comes.
Dieng might be the real steal in all of this. Shot-blocking centers who can operate from the high post and knock down a jumper don't come around all that often, and it's not hard to envision Dieng working nicely with Jonas Valanciunas for years to come.
It's unlikely that the Raptors will do anything big this offseason since they're rebuilding, and Barea will have trade value at next year's deadline as a capable sixth man. Trading an expiring deal for a future trade chip and the 14th and 21st picks from this year's draft is a nice haul.
Why Minnesota Does It: Minnesota's bench has been a disaster, and Barea's inability to distribute has really limited the group's offensive potential. The addition of Lowry as a sixth man could seriously elevate the chances of playoff success, which is critical for Minnesota right now.
While Muhammad and Dieng may be contributors one day, they aren't right now. Timberwolves GM Flip Saunders needs to focus on keeping Kevin Love right where he is, and making a move for a talented player like Lowry is a positive signal to send.
This would be a bit risky, but it might be the type of move required to survive in a tough Western Conference.
Golden State Warriors
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Toronto Raptors Receive: PF Marreese Speights (3 years, $10.9 million), PG Nemanja Nedovic (4 years, $5.2 million) and a 2019 lottery-protected first-round pick.
Golden State Warriors Receive: PG Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million)
Why Toronto Does It: This trade isn't all that dissimilar to the proposed deal with the New York Knicks, but you'd expect the Warriors future to be a lot brighter, obviously. Speights hasn't been great in Golden State, but he's had moments of productivity in the past and is still reasonably young at 26 years old.
Of course, this deal is all about that future pick. While it's quite a long ways off in the distance thanks to the Stepien Rule preventing the Warriors trading an earlier pick, it's still a first-round draft choice in exchange for an expiring contract.
Nedovic would also be a nice gamble for the Raptors, as he has a lot of natural athletic ability. The Raptors should probably hold out for more elsewhere, but this would be the best plausible deal Golden State could and would likely offer.
Why Golden State Does It: The arms race in the Western Conference is no joke, and the Warriors could stand to add some insurance behind Stephen Curry. With Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala on the wing, the Warriors could be a really nasty defense on the perimeter with Lowry tossed into the mix, and there would be plenty of fireworks from behind the arc, as per usual.
Depending on how he'd adapt to a clear bench role, Lowry could be a player that makes an impact on both ends. With Harrison Barnes struggling offensively a bit, adding another scoring option could make the Warriors the team no one wants to see in the playoffs. This would be a pretty cheap rental, outside of the draft pick.
Los Angeles Lakers
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Toronto Raptors Receive: PG Steve Nash (2 years, $19 million), SF Wesley Johnson (1 year, $884,293) and a 2019 first-round draft pick.
Los Angeles Lakers Receive: PG Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million) and SF Landry Fields (2 years, $12.5 million).
Why Toronto Does It: I know, it seems crazy. What would a rebuilding team want to do with an injured, soon-to-be 40-year-old point guard making nearly $10 million next season? It's tough, but you have to break this trade down into parts to understand it.
Would the Raptors be willing to pay the difference between Nash's deal and Fields' deal (about $3.5 million) next year to give Canada's greatest basketball star his hero's welcome? Would it be worth it to have Nash as a locker room presence, a mentor for Toronto's young guards and an ambassador of Raptors' basketball for a year in a city that would love him like none other?
I say yes, even if Nash provided very little on the floor or didn't prove to be an upgrade from Fields. Of course, there's the chance that Nash could retire as well once he saw the writing on the wall.
More importantly, is trading an expiring deal in Lowry for a future first-round pick and an athletic forward like Johnson worth it? It seems like it would be.
Why Los Angeles Does It: It's much easier to trade or waive and use the stretch provision on Fields than it is Nash, both from a logistic and emotional standpoint. Sending Nash back home to Canada may be the best image move the Lakers could make here.
But aside from all that, the Lakers desperately need a point guard with Steve Blake now out 6-8 weeks. Lowry is sort of the perfect storm for the Lakers: He's athletic, he can score on his own and, most importantly, he's on an expiring contract.
While it would be very tough to sacrifice yet another future first-round pick, especially since a trade for Nash put the Lakers in this spot in the first place, this move could make the Lakers a sneaky playoff contender this season while clearing more cap space for next year's free-agency bonanza. That might be worth the cost.
Although it's a long shot, perhaps Lowry would take a discount to stay in Los Angeles next year if he liked the freedom of Mike D'Antoni's offense. While Fields would almost certainly be cut bait next season, the best years of his career were with D'Antoni in New York. A lot could go right with this move.
Miami Heat
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Toronto Raptors Receive: PG Mario Chalmers (1 year, $4 million), SF James Jones (1 year, $1.5 million), C Joel Anthony (2 years, $7.6 million) and a 2017 first-round pick.
Miami Heat Receive: PG Kyle Lowry (1 year, $6.2 million) and SF Steve Novak (3 years, $10.8 million).
Why Toronto Does It: Are we certain that LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will all still be in Miami in 2017? The answer is no, and that should provide plenty of incentive to take a risk and hope for the best by acquiring Miami's future first-round pick.
Swapping Chalmers with Lowry is an exchange of expiring point guards, but Chalmers would seem to be a more likely candidate to actually stay in Toronto than Lowry is. While the Raptors would take on the dead money of Joel Anthony (another Canadian!) for two seasons, they'd get out from the third year of Steve Novak's deal. James Jones would simply be filler.
There isn't a lot to like from a talent standpoint here, but a pick that isn't so far off in the distance probably holds more value to Ujiri than the picks teams like the Knicks, Nets and Lakers can only offer due to the Stepien Rule.
Why Miami Does It: Is Lowry a big enough upgrade from Chalmers to make this worth it? That might be debatable, and then there's the fact that championship teams rarely mess with the core components when considering trades.
Still, if Wade's knees are in really bad shape, this deal probably makes more sense. Lowry is a more capable slasher and scorer than Chalmers is, and although he's not nearly as consistent defensively, he has the tools to be equally great.
Novak is a sneaky pickup here as well. Giving one of the league's best perimeter shooters a steady diet of open looks is always a good idea, and Miami has plenty of practice hiding guys like him defensively.
If Miami truly is looking for backcourt help, they'll almost certainly have to include a future draft pick to get anything substantial. Putting Lowry on a competitive team with shooters all over the floor could pay big dividends, even if it's a little risky.
