Bowl Projections 2013: Analyzing Biggest Changes in BCS Picture After Week 14

Rivalry week in college football is usually good for maybe one paradigm-shifting result, some silly trophies being passed back and forth, countless work hours being missed and a whole heck of a lot of pageantry. This year's rivalry week lived up to every one of those expectations.

And then some.

With multiple surprises and other mere culminations of results no one expected in the preseason, Week 14 across the nation was one of fluctuation and uncertainty. What we once thought was guaranteed is now dead, and what we once thought was impossible is now vibrant and bright.

Yes, I'm looking right at you, Alabama and Auburn. Chris Davis' field-goal return heard 'round the world gave the Tigers their second Miracle at Jordan-Hare in as many contests and fundamentally altered our expectations for the 2013 BCS bowl season. 

We've become so used to Alabama winning championships that it seemed unfathomable that any other result was possible. Last season was so horrible for Auburn then seeing the Tigers on the precipice of a SEC Championship.

Whoops.

But Auburn wasn't the only team to alter the bowl-projections picture. With that in mind, let's take a look back at rivalry week and check in with the biggest changes from last week to this week.

Bowl	Matchup
BCS Championship	Florida State vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl	Stanford vs. Michigan State
Orange Bowl	Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl	Auburn vs. Central Florida
Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma State vs. Northern Illinois

The Alabama Ripple Effect

This one is obviously the biggie, so let's start here. Alabama's loss all at once seemingly clarifies the entire picture and creates the possibility for havoc now and in the future. 

On the surface, it seems pretty easy. Ohio State and Florida State are storied programs in major conferences who just so happen to be undefeated. Pure laymen logic says that, provided the Buckeyes and Seminoles cap off their respective conference championship games, they should play to kiss the crystal football. 

Some other folks tend to disagree. Look around on any talking-head program, or even around the Interwebs, and you'll find multiple prominent members of the media riding and dying for Auburn. The Tigers received two first-place votes in the Associated Press poll, while Ohio State received exactly zero. While the two human polls that matter—USA Today and Harris—have the Buckeyes at No. 2, the margin is close enough that the computers will play a huge role in determining the true second team.

Everyone (outside of Columbus) was pretty much cool with a Florida State-Alabama championship game. The Buckeyes' schedule left something to be desired, and the SEC is widely recognized as the top conference in college football. But a one-loss team overtaking Ohio State? That's not nearly going to be as accepted, should it happen following next week.

On the other side of the coin, you do not want to be the team that loses the SEC Championship Game. Barring some hardcore weirdness with the rankings, the loser of Missouri-Auburn won't wind up in the BCS bowl picture. Rather, it's highly likely the team heads to the Capital One Bowl, consigned to wondering how it can be a bad thing that they won their conference division.

Alabama, meanwhile, will back into a BCS bowl and still has an outside shot of hitting the repeat button on 2011—the year the Tide "backed" all the way into a national championship.

Ugh. Is the playoff here yet? 

Arizona State and Michigan State: The Unappreciated Twosome

It's hard to find a more overlooked elite team in the nation than the Sun Devils. Perhaps, it's because their most notable, nationally televised result of the season was a loss to Notre Dame, but Arizona State's rise to the Top 15 has gone almost entirely uncovered.

Todd Graham's squad has reeled off seven straight victories since falling to the Irish and will get to atone for its first loss of the season against Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game. 

Arizona State clinched its berth this week, scoring a 58-21 victory over rival Arizona. Taylor Kelly, whose performance level has fluctuated throughout the season, was back to being solid with two touchdowns and 274 yards. The Sun Devil offense didn't bat an eye after losing talented running back Marion Grice either, as D.J. Foster went over the 100-yard mark and quelled worries about his ability to handle an increased workload.

More importantly, Arizona State clinched home-field advantage in the conference title game. The oddsmakers (per Vegas Insider) have even installed the Sun Devils as 3.5-point favorites, despite Stanford being the higher-ranked squad, already winning earlier this season. Should Graham lead his squad to victory, it'd be the school's first trip to Pasadena in nearly two decades.

If you can believe it, it's actually been longer than that for Michigan State. The Spartans' last Rose Bowl trip came in 1988, at the height of the George Perles era. Their past quarter-century has been spent mostly languishing in mid-tier bowls, a streak that will probably end this year regardless of how the Big Ten Championship plays out.

Mark Dantonio's squad is probably heading to Pasadena, by hook or by crook. Wisconsin's loss to Penn State essentially eradicated the other answer for the selection committee, assuming that Ohio State wouldn't fall behind Auburn in the BCS standings. 

Either way, both Arizona State and Michigan State deserve more credit for their stellar seasons regardless of what happens next weekend.

And Northern Illinois Stands Alone

Do you hate mid-major football and never want to see them on the grandest stage? You may want to start learning the names of Bowling Green players so you don't look like a fool rooting for the Falcons on Friday.

For almost the entire season, two schools stood to act as our yearly BCS buster: Northern Illinois and Fresno State. It fluctuated week to week which team looked better, and for much of the campaign, Fresno held a slight lead from our favorite #MACTion provider. 

Welp. 

The Bulldogs suffered their first loss of the season Friday night, allowing 62 points to a San Jose State squad that finished 6-6.

They followed the nail-biting blueprint that has been apparent all season, with Derek Carr flinging the ball all over the field and the defense being occasionally called upon for a clutch stop. Only the magic dried up. There would be no comeback this time around, no fifth victory by one possession.

That leaves just one, and it's a familiar foe. Led by Heisman contender Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois made the Orange Bowl last season as the BCS buster, only to be promptly throttled by Florida State. The Huskies looked totally overmatched in the contest after a kinda-sorta close first half. This wasn't Boise State's or Utah's pre-Pac-12 runs by any stretch of the imagination.

While one could surmise Lynch and Co. will be better with the past experience at their back, but that'd be a foolhardy assumption. Northern Illinois was actually better last season from Football Outsiders' advanced measurements, which takes into account schedule strength and numerous other factors to set a normalized rankings database.

Should things play out exactly down the line, the Huskies would very likely take on Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. Football Outsiders ranked the Cowboys No. 10 in the nation prior to this past week, and they will likely go even higher. With Northern Illinois sitting at No. 49, the Fiesta Bowl would have the largest discrepancy between teams by a long shot.

Whether you like it or hate it, though, it's happening unless Bowling Green can pull off an upset. If not? Baylor is the likeliest beneficiary, and the entire selection process for at-large teams gets a gigantic monkey wrench. 

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