Bowl Projections 2013: Hard-Charging Teams That Will Sneak into BCS Games

For elite, major-conference college football teams, games are no longer just games at this point in the season. They're rankings points. They're strength-of-schedule boosters. They're whatever pejorative term you want to give to the inane, crazy, super-fun, conversation-generating system in place that determines what teams play in what bowl.

I'm sure going to miss it when it's dead and gone.

But for now, we're still in the BCS era and subject to its inherent whims. That means on any week things can drastically change, as the craziness in the Pac-12 the past two weeks has proved. The conference went from having a championship game participant and another BCS team, to merely two BCS bowl teams down to Oregon singing "One Is the Loneliest Number."

Again, college football is fun.

Despite the craziness, there are some things you can see coming weeks in advance. Late-season scenarios begin playing themselves out, the if/then questions begin having concrete answers and teams hanging on the outside of the BCS picture begin knowing what exactly they have to do to enter the conversation.

That starts with winning. Duh. But there are a few teams on the outside looking in that are in good position for a BCS bowl berth should they do just that. Here's a look at ones I think will wind up sneaking their way in.

No. 12 Texas A&M

If the season ended today, Johnny Football would go (likely) his entire career without playing a BCS bowl. It's been obscured a bit in his overall Heisman narrative, but the Aggies watched every BCS bowl from home last season and may be consigned to another Cotton Bowl or, if everyone crosses their fingers, the Capital One Bowl.

But there's hope, and it comes in the form of Manziel's greatest nemesis. To put it another way: Texas A&M needs Alabama to beat Auburn next week. The Crimson Tide and Tigers meet on Nov. 30 in a season-ending clash that will define the season for both sides. For Auburn, a berth in the national title game isn't totally out of the question. For Alabama, a win would be the latest obstacle in Nick Saban's quest for three straight crystal footballs.

The Aggies stand to benefit if the latter scenario comes through as expected. Though it currently sits at No. 12, Texas A&M's season closes with back-to-back games against respected, ranked opponents in LSU and Missouri. If Manziel and Co. can win out—both games are on the road—we're in for an interesting final BCS standings. 

The question here is how the rankings will shuffle out. Auburn beat Texas A&M earlier this season. By the transitive property, the Tigers should be the SEC's second BCS team regardless of what happens in the season's final week. 

We all know that isn't how the BCS works. Recent losses are more heavily penalized than ones earlier in the season—even losses to Alabama. The Aggies will have won five straight games when the final BCS rankings come out in our scenario, and I have a hard time seeing recency bias not winning out here. It might not be fair or just or any other synonym, but Texas A&M is going to get in the Sugar Bowl if it wins out.

Now, it's just up to them to take care of that.

No. 16 Northern Illinois 

The Huskies are getting awfully good at making everyone sweat. America's favorite midweek viewing experience has given fans near-coronaries to go along with their #MACtion in their past two wins. It took a fourth-quarter surge against Ball State to pull away, and then did the same on Wednesday night against Toledo. 

It hasn't exactly been the best two resume-boosting weeks. 

Nonetheless, we're looking at an 11-0 team in a good position to be the BCS buster for a second straight season. The Huskies' main competition in that regard is Fresno State, and the Bulldogs have an advantage in the BCS standings at the moment. But that margin has been slowly shrinking to the point Northern Illinois came into Week 13 staring up only one spot over its foes. 

Jordan Lynch and Co. aren't going to overtake Fresno State this week, but they should inch closer in terms of overall points. Toledo is a 7-4 team with only two losses in the conference. Fresno State takes on a New Mexico squad that's 3-7. That's not enough to move the needle completely in Northern Illinois' direction; something else will have to happen.

Luckily, it did. Boise State is good at football again. The Broncos, having major problems under center, started their season 2-2, including a one-point loss to Fresno State. But they've reeled off five wins in their past six games, a stretch that makes it increasingly likely that Boise will take on Fresno in the Mountain West Championship Game.

Having seen both teams play the past couple of weeks, I think the Broncos should be favored. Call it a hunch of what have you, but if there's a BCS buster this year, it's going to be Northern Illinois. 

No. 19 Wisconsin

No one should even be remotely shocked by this. The last time Wisconsin didn't make a BCS bowl game was in 2009. Whether by hook or by NCAA-related crook, the Badgers have found themselves a yearly fixture in Pasadena and could wind up there again if things bounce the right way for Ohio State.

Even if it's the Buckeyes who put the flowers in their mouths next month, nearly every scenario plays out advantageously for Wisconsin. By virtue of looking up at Ohio State in the Leaders Division, the Badgers won't have to play in the Big Ten Championship Game. While that might seem like a detrimental fact—something something control their own destiny and yada yada yada—the reality plays out quite nicely.

Barring back-to-back losses to end the season, Michigan State will face the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. As of now, the Spartans would be the second Big Ten representative in BCS bowls. Again, that would seem like a good thing. Controlling destiny and such.

However, here is a handy list of teams that have lost a conference championship game and made a BCS bowl over the past three seasons: Virginia Tech (2011). That's the entire list. Again, recency bias plays a huge factor here, and rarely do BCS bowls want a team coming off a loss.

What's more, Wisconsin would have an even better claim at a berth than Texas A&M. The Badgers don't play Michigan State this season. Their only conference loss is to, you guessed it, Ohio State. Voters would not only have no shame in ranking Wisconsin over Michigan State, they probably shouldn't.

This is all moot if the Badgers don't win out, but they're a near-lock if Ohio State beats Michigan State. 

Bowl	Matchup
BCS Championship	Alabama vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl	Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl	Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl	Texas A&M vs. Central Florida
Fiesta Bowl	Baylor vs. Northern Illinois

Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter: