Predicting the 8 Worst Regressions by Big-Name NBA Players This Season

There's no way to say this without sounding like a pessimist: A handful of NBA players are in for a rude awakening this year.

For some experienced veterans, the end is nigh. Nothing lasts forever, and the NBA aging curve is a dispassionate, consistent reminder of that fact.

In addition, a few of last year's younger standouts are unlikely to repeat their anomalous seasons. Their regressions won't have anything to do with age, but changed circumstances and the league's expanding "book" on their games will make repeat performances difficult.

As we run through the players most likely to suffer a dip in play, keep in mind that guys who already slipped are excluded. So Steve Nash, Andrew Bynum and Amar'e Stoudemire won't appear here. They're already hurting, so there's no reason to kick them while they're down.

So, let's talk slippage.

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs

Thanks to the recency bias, a lot of people seem to think that Manu Ginobili suffered through a significant decline last year. But if we put aside that surprising postseason swoon, it turns out that Ginobili was still pretty solid in 2012-13.

He posted a PER of 19.05, which was his lowest figure in a decade, but not by a significant margin, per Basketball-Reference.com. He spent the past 10 years in the low 20's, and with 15.0 being league average, it's not as though Manu fell off a cliff.

But the signs of an steep impending decline are obvious.

Ginobili is 36, and even though he's a crafty, intelligent player, much of his value comes from the quirky athleticism that helps him cause havoc in the lane. At his age, that quickness could disappear overnight.

This is a guy who also has a ton of extra mileage on his odometer because of international competition, not to mention the extra playoff games the San Antonio Spurs have added to their schedule over the years.

The 2013-14 season is going to be rough for Ginobili. 

Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks

Injuries nearly derailed Tyson Chandler's early career, and his failed physical in 2009 actually prevented him from joining the Oklahoma City Thunder in what would have been a league-altering trade.

After that, Chandler somehow managed to shake the injury bug long enough to win a ring with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. He then put together a couple of excellent seasons with the New York Knicks.

But it always felt like he was on borrowed time.

Last year, a neck injury resulted in significantly reduced production after the All-Star break. Given Chandler's long history of health issues, it would be unwise to wager on the 31-year-old center's return to full strength.

After all, 7-footers don't typically enjoy improved health as they age.

Chandler has been one of the league's best centers over the past three seasons, but his run as an elite defensive big is likely to end this year.

Jose Calderon, Dallas Mavericks

At 32, Jose Calderon remains one of the best pure shooters and most unselfish facilitators in the league. But we can all agree that he played a little over his head last year, can't we?

His 61.6 true-shooting percentage was a career high, and his PER of 18.80 was his best since 2008-09. If circumstances were different, it might be possible for Calderon to approach those numbers again this year. But because he's now paired with Monta Ellis in Dallas' ill-conceived backcourt, he's not going to be able to hide anywhere on defense.

As he struggles to stop larger opponents, fatigue will set in. That'll lead to a reduction in offensive production, potential foul trouble and a lot more physical wear and tear than he's used to. Of course, it's also possible that the Mavs will simply opt to sit Calderon in favor of Ellis, who has been showing a greater willingness to handle point guard duties during the preseason.

The point here is that Calderon played very well last year, but because of his age and defensive limitations, he's not going to be in a position to duplicate that performance.

Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets

Enough with the old dudes! Let's mix things up by including Kenneth Faried, a 23-year-old forward who may have already enjoyed his best seasons.

Grantland's Zach Lowe reported that there were already trade rumors swirling around Faried, and according to the Denver Nuggets, head coach Brian Shaw is likely to start J.J. Hickson (a major regression candidate in his own right) over "The Manimal."

The reason Faried has fallen out of favor in Denver? Defense.

Admittedly, Hickson's reputation as a stopper is at least as bad as Faried's. But the former Portland Trail Blazer's ugly defensive rating of 107.5 last year might be partially due to playing out of position at center.

Right now, it's basically a death sentence to pair Faried with JaVale McGee in the frontcourt on D, and Shaw is a defense-first coach. Plus, Faried saw modest dips in his shooting numbers last year, signaling a bothersome failure to improve after his rookie season.

Faried is exciting, hard-working and worthy of a rotation spot. But he's going to find it extremely difficult to produce this year if he can't defend well enough to stay on the floor.

Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies

Zach Randolph had a solid season in 2012-13, averaging 15.4 points and 11.2 rebounds. But he shot just 46 percent from the field during both the regular season and the playoffs, and he looked physically overmatched at times during the postseason.

It's true that a guy like Randolph, who has never relied on athleticism to get by, should be able to survive better than most as he ages. In addition, "Z-Bo" did manage to play a total of 90 games last year between the regular season and the playoffs. So, it's not as though he's falling apart physically.

But heading into his 13th year, Randolph now has a couple of useful bigs pushing him for minutes. As Ed Davis and Kosta Koufos demand more playing time, his numbers are likely to suffer.

Overall, the combination of continued physical decline and reduced playing time make Z-Bo a very strong candidate to slip.

If you're curious, I will not say that to his face. Toughness doesn't age.

J.R. Smith, New York Knicks

In terms of counting numbers, J.R. Smith had the best season of his career in 2012-13. His averages of 18.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game were both personal bests. And from an efficiency standpoint, the New York Knicks' sixth man posted a very good PER of 17.67, his best since 2007-08.

Smith is 28, apparently healthy after offseason knee surgery and in line to play at least as many minutes as he did last year. So why, exactly, is he likely to regress?

Call it a hunch, but Smith seems like a terrific candidate to lose focus this year. He'll sit out the first five games of the season because of a suspension, which indicates he's making off-court decisions that probably aren't in his best basketball interests. And now that he's in possession of a three-year, $18 million deal, it's entirely possible that he'll mentally check out even more than usual.

Expect conditioning issues and ongoing concerns about his sketchy shot selection to crop up all year.

Smith won't ever have a more productive year than he did a last season. Take that to the bank.

Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks

I'm not sure how Shawn Marion has stayed so productive for so long, but it has to come to an end eventually.

"The Matrix" survives on great instincts. Defensively, he's like a cat burglar in the passing lanes. And he does damage on offense by picking perfect angles to secure loose balls and dominating on the glass with inborn anticipation skills.

All of those natural gifts work for Marion because he has always been an elite athlete. But he's entering his 15th year, and it's extremely difficult to believe Marion will continue to bounce around the court like a 23-year-old. When his springs and jets eventually malfunction, his lack of conventional hoop skills will leave him without a role.

He can't survive as a jump shooter with that hot-potato release, and his brilliant defense will suffer if he can't hold onto his remarkable quickness.

Of course, Marion has always had an unconventional game. Maybe he'll age unconventionally, too. But if you're expecting another season featuring 51 percent shooting and a PER of 18.02, you're dreaming.

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

I mean, what's there to say that we don't already know?

Kobe Bryant is coming off of one of the best age-34 seasons in NBA history, so even if he wasn't trying to return from an injury that typically crushes careers, it'd be statistically wise to predict a regression.

But because "The Mamba" is trying to come back from a torn Achilles at an age when most guards are barely clinging to NBA life, the likelihood of a significant dip in production is even greater.

Look, there's an exceptionally vocal contingent of Kobe fanboys who fall back on the logically indefensible argument that goes, "But it's Kobe! He can do anything with will power alone!" Yes, it's true that Bryant works harder than most and is clearly a unique physical specimen.

But it's silly to ignore his age and injury when projecting his performance this year.

Put simply, there is absolutely no way Bryant approaches his stunning averages of 27.3 points, six assists and 5.6 rebounds of a year ago. He was utterly phenomenal in 2012-13.

He'll be human this year.