Expectations for the Buffalo Bills in 2009: Paradigm Shift or Plateau

In 1968, the Buffalo Bills earned the first draft pick with a 2-12 record. In two years, they had gone from missing the original Super Bowl by one game to earning the No. 1 draft choice by one game. 

At 2-12, that one game meant the difference between O.J. Simpson and Leroy Keyes, who went to Philadelphia with the second pick.

Despite the addition of O.J., the Bills continued to struggle until the arrival of Joe Ferguson at quarterback in 1973, and the return of Coach Lou Saban in 1974. Finally, after eight years, the Bills were in position to challenge for the Division title and the playoffs.

There was a brief reversal at the end of O.J.'s career but with Ferguson still on board and the arrival of Coach Chuck Knox from the LA Rams, the Bills had another competitive run.

Then came the strike, the "replacement players," and another couple of bad years  before the Bills of the '90s began to take shape. The breakout year was 1988 when out of nowhere, with the addition of Cornelius Bennett and Bruce Smith, the Bills became the defensive power of the league.

Add Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, and Coach Marv Levy and what continues to be regarded as the most talented Buffalo team in history was in place to win the AFC Championship an unprecedented four consecutive times...  

...And lose the Super Bowl an unprecedented four consecutive times.

And then a corner was turned. The brains behind the Super Bowl teams: Bill Polian & Ted Marchibroda moved on. Levy retired.

John Butler took over the GM duties. The Bills began a slow slide to mediocrity.

It wasn't noticeable at first. Doug Flutie was signed at QB and it seemed like the next incarnation was taking effect.

Flutie was Buffalo's kind of quarterback. Too short for the rest of the NFL, he was perfect for the NFL's second smallest market. Known for his scrambling ability, his constant over-achievement, he was perfect for a blue collar town that gets no respect. Expectations were high.

Then the Bills signed Rob Johnson. The California guy. The surfer. In Buffalo? What were they thinking? And why sign him? We already had Flutie.

Hindsight says, the signing of Rob Johnson was the first indication that things had changed in Buffalo, and not for the better.  The new management didn't get it.

But then the gods were kind. Johnson was injured. Flutie took over. The Bills began winning. Not only winning, but winning in classic underdog, Rodney Dangerfield, Buffalo style. Coming from behind. Robbing fate. Slaying giants and dragons.

But the management didn't get it. Or at least Coach Wade Philips.

Philips had been Levy's Defensive Coordinator. Butler promoted him rather than taking a serious look at outside candidates.

Was it Philips or Butler or both who decided to pull Flutie's plug?

Yes,they let Flutie continue to play when Johnson got healthy. Yes, they let Flutie get us to the playoffs. But then, they promptly benched him.

That was the day there was a collective shudder in Buffalo. Not because of the loss. Because of the paradigm shift.

Levy would have started Flutie. Knox would have. Saban would have, both times.

But then, there were more changes. At first, the hiring of Tom Donahoe as GM away from Pittsburgh seemed like a good move. His choice for head coach, Gregg Williams, showed promise.

But Williams didn't want Flutie. And soon enough Donahoe's personnel picks blew up. And who is this guy who spells Greg with 2 g's?  

Definitely a paradigm shift. No doubt about it by this point.

So what does all of this have to do with 2009?

Consider the possibility that the signing of TO is the equivalent of signing Doug Flutie. Consider it a paradigm shift back to a familiar groove in which Buffalo has peaks and valleys but never only valleys and plateaus.

Since the O'Donohue era, it has been mostly valleys with a few plateaus and no peaks. There have been flashes of potential, but those flashes have quickly been extinguished. And the management just hadn't seemed to get it.

Chalk Losman up to Johnson Two. Chalk Mularkey up to Williams Two. Chalk Jauron up to Wade Philips Two.

Ooops! Jauron is still coaching. And therein lies the biggest obstacle to that paradigm shift locking in.  

At least the TO deal shows some of the gutsy creativity that Bills management used to be famous for, and that ended with the acquisition and later abuse of Doug Flutie. See my subsequent article at B/R, entitled, "Why Owens and Buffalo are a Marriage Made in Heaven." 

For purposes of this article, just assume his acquisition is an ingenious move.

Assuming the presence of Owens makes Edwards a better quarterback and Lee Evans and Josh Reed better receivers, and off season acquisitions including the draft further fortify the offense, and the resulting better offense takes pressure off the defense which is also improved by off season moves—lots of assumptions, lots of big if's but assuming it is so... the Bills could make the playoffs in 2009.

If the Bills make the playoffs it will be the TO acquisition that tips the scales from plateau to peak. It will be the TO acquisition that created the paradigm shift that makes everything else possible.

Yes, this assessment is counter-intuitive. It is a strong division. New England, Miami and even the Jets are likely to be as strong as last season or stronger. The Bills will need to get stronger just to stay even.

Yes, the above is true from a text book perspective. It's true from an inside the box, conventional pundit, power rankings, preseason prediction perspective.

But Buffalo sports is more about intangibles, chemistry, miracles and curses than conventional wisdom, punditry, or text book power analysis.

Fans and players alike have been starved for the management to do something, anything to show they are committed to winning. With TO, the management seems to have awakened from their trance.

That could be all it takes to create the chemistry, the attitude, the psycho dynamics necessary on the field and in the stands to create the alchemy between team and fans that exceeds x's and o's and depth charts.

So, yes, if things fall into place correctly, the Bills will make a run at the AFC East Title, will make the playoffs one way or another, and will make some noise in the playoffs.

If this doesn't happen, it will be the fault of Dick Jauron and Trent Edwards.

As TO is the active ingredient that could create the chemical reaction for a quantum leap, Jauron and Edwards could be the reagents that can neutralize TO.

While they were at it, management should have fired Jauron. He is indeed Wade Philips Two. He, like Philips, like Mularkey, and like Gregg Williams, is destined to be a permanent coordinator. There were several good Buffalo style coaches available that could have turned the team around quickly, as Levy did, as Knox did, as Saban's return did. Management chose to pass.

Is there any chance at all that management knows something we don't?

We'll give management and Jauron the slight benefit of the doubt for now, but if Jauron doesn't win at least two of his first three games they still need to fire him.

If Jauron goes, the Bills should be able to steal Turner Gill from the University at Buffalo, who is just what the paradigm shift calls for. (See my B/R articles "Bills at the Crossroads..." and "Buffalo Dreaming...")

Edwards has had moments of brilliance. But he seems to fade as the weather gets cold, however, which doesn't do much for Buffalo's home field advantage. The Bills need to be ready with an alternative to Edwards.

There are still some good seasoned QB's available as free agents or via a trade. In addition, however, the Bills should take my advice (see my B/R article "Buffalo Dreaming..." and sign local college hero, Drew Willy, (not drafted) who could be the next Doug Flutie, or an NFL equivalent of the former Buffalo Braves' (NBA) signing of local basketball star, Randy Smith (also referenced in "Buffalo Dreaming...").      

The point is, that either the Bills will move forward in 2009 or remain in the doldrums for seasons to come.

This is already the longest trough the Bills have had in their history, and unlike the other times the team has been in the valleys, other than the TO deal, there's little to suggest they will turn things around in the foreseeable future.  

And if they remain in the doldrums, blame management, blame Jauron, and—as they will be playing a home game in Toronto—blame Canada!