Preseason NBA Stars Guaranteed to Break out During 2013-14 Regular Season
Preseason stats can be deceiving.
Blame a minuscule sample size and warped rotations for the numbers that surface.
Omri Casspi isn't going to shoot 77 percent from the field and 50 percent from deep this season. His career marks (42.1 and 35.3, respectively) are more likely to appear in his stat line by season's end. Anthony Morrow won't have another 26-point outing all season (he had two double-digit games in 2012-13).
But preseason production shouldn't be dismissed as easily as summer league stats.
These are (by and large) all NBA players competing against one another. Maybe not as feverishly or for as long as they will in the regular season, but these aren't glorified pickup games.
The preseason churns out storylines by the dozen, but I find the continuations more intriguing than the introductions. When players are expected to do great things, then actually go out and do them, that's when guaranteed breakout seasons are formed.
These are more than just optimistic, bold predictions. These are the 10 preseason stars guaranteed to soar in 2013-14.
Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
1 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, .516/.751, 21.7 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 23.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG, .530/.875
If there's still a market for basketball cards, start collecting as many Anthony Davis rookie cards as you possibly can. Seriously, go smash the piggy bank, clear out your savings and buy these in bulk.
It's OK, I'll wait.
Projecting Davis for stardom isn't exactly going out on a limb. He was widely regarded as being a cut above the rest of his 2013 draft class, creating a drama-free room when David Stern announced him as the No. 1 overall selection by the then-New Orleans Hornets.
Limited only by some nagging injuries (18 games missed), Davis turned in a fine rookie season. Not Earth-shattering, but per-36-minute marks of 16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks suggested he was headed that way soon.
Well, soon is apparently now.
Strengthened by some extra weight added over the offseason, Davis has been terrorizing his opponents this preseason. He's putting up all-star numbers as we speak—in fewer than 29 minutes a night no less.
With his point guard background and gargantuan 7'5" wingspan, Davis is a matchup nightmare for bigger and smaller defenders alike. And to think, last season we salivated over his potential for his transcendent defensive skills alone.
The one-browed baller has two-way greatness in his future. And in his present.
Goran Dragic, PG, Phoenix Suns
2 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 14.7 PPG, 7.4 APG, 3.1 RPG, .443/.319/.748, 17.5 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 12.6 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.6 RPG, .676/.538/.600
The Phoenix Suns shouldn't be any good this season.
A full season removed from the end of the Steve Nash era, a best-case scenario would be something less than last season's 25-57 mark. In dire need of talent, the Suns need to keep sliding down the NBA standings and (hopefully) keep climbing a potentially generous 2014 draft lottery.
But it doesn't look like Goran Dragic has gotten the message. Well, that or he's looking to play his way out of the desert as a massive trade chip.
The 27-year-old has been hitting everything in sight this preseason. That sizzling five-game shooting sample even includes a seven-minute, 0-of-3 dud in his third outing of the season.
With new backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe commanding some defensive attention, the 6'4" Dragic has dazzled as the driver of new coach Jeff Hornacek's uptempo offense.
Quick off the dribble, steady with his stroke and blessed with elite-level court vision, Dragic is dangerous as both a setup man and a scorer. If Phoenix's young guns can hit the ground running, Dragic will be headed for a second straight breakout season.
I'm not sure if that's good news or not for Suns fans, though.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
3 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 7.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG, .608/.371, 21.6 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 13.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG, .574/.571
Last summer, Detroit Pistons man-child Andre Drummond was dominating analysts' boom-or-bust lists. This time around he's back on the slideshow circuit, as his name has been a fixture among breakout candidates.
He could be popping up on even more lists as the season plays out. Think All-Star Game selection, All-NBA honors and All-Defensive recognition.
The 6'11", 270-pound bruiser is one of the few players currently operating without a ceiling. He's a hulking presence with freakish athleticism, the kind that makes you wonder how he ever lasted through the first eight picks of last year's draft.
Still incredibly raw in his craft, that didn't stop him from posting some tantalizing per-36-minute averages in 2012-13: 13.8 points, 13.2 boards and 2.8 blocks. Now that his floor time is headed toward that 36-minute threshold—he's averaged 26.6 over five preseason outings—his numbers can grow along with it.
All of 20 years old, he's one reliable post move and a serviceable free-throw shot away from greatness. If he keeps building beyond that, we'll have to start putting our Drummond discussions in historical context.
Monta Ellis, SG, Dallas Mavericks
4 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 19.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.9 RPG, .416/.287/.773, 16.2 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 13.3 PPG, 7.3 APG, 2.5 RPG, .543/.500/.643
When Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban cast his superstar reel for the second straight summer, there's no way he was planning to catch Monta Ellis.
Contrary to popular belief—popular at least inside the Ellis' household—Ellis doesn't have it all. What he does have is a history of disappointments, some glaring defensive deficiencies and the kind of shot selection that even Nate Robinson couldn't justify.
But how much of his past missteps were his own fault?
His shot selection can't be entirely forgiven, but the lack of help he had on past teams was glaring.
Playing alongside an established star like Dirk Nowitzki, Ellis has thrived as a secondary option this preseason. He's dialed back his long-distance attempts (a smart move for a career 31.8 percent three-point shooter). He's taken a quality-over-quantity approach at the offensive end, and the result has been a stat line as glowing as any he's ever produced.
Ellis has the chance to rewrite his NBA book this season. If he stays as generous as he's been in the preseason, he'll give defenses fits as old scouting reports are crumbled and tossed in the trash can.
Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls
5 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 8.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG, .485/.679, 14.4 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 15.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG, .658/.571
If you've missed any of Taj Gibson's dominant play this preseason, the former USC star won't hold any grudges against you.
There's something about sharing the floor with a former All-Star making his highly anticipated return from a lengthy rehab that tends to cloud the spotlight. Not to mention, in the grand scheme of the Chicago Bulls' championship plans, Gibson's often regarded as an afterthought.
Trapped behind Carlos Boozer and his burdensome contract (two years, $32.1 million remaining), Gibson's been held down by a reserve role for the last three seasons. After seeing nearly 27 minutes of action a night as a rookie, he's failed to log more than 22.4 since.
But Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau has extended Gibson's leash this preseason (28.3 minutes per game), and the fifth-year man has responded with across-the-board contributions.
Defensively, Gibson does a little of everything well. He's a strong individual defender, with the length and athleticism to change shots as a weak-side helper. He's big enough to bang in the middle and agile enough to keep pace with today's fleet-footed forwards.
Offensively, he's physical on the low block and reliable from mid-range.
There are plenty of mouths to feed in this attack, but expect Gibson to take a sizable bite this season.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
6 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 8.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG, .643/.386, 17.2 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 13.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 5.0 BPG, .739/.538
When Blake Griffin declared "Lob City" dead at Los Angeles Clippers media day, via ESPN's Shelly Smith, he all but extinguished DeAndre Jordan's chance at production this season.
An explosive, 6'11" finisher, Jordan soared in L.A.'s aerial game. More than 44 percent of his field goals in 2012-13 were dunks and nearly 61 percent of his offense came right at the rim.
An atrocious shooter from the charity stripe, Jordan's not the kind of player that Doc Rivers can run in a post isolation. Not only does the 25-year-old's interior offense need work, defenders didn't need to wait for him to make his move. By wrapping up the big man, defenses could limit the Clippers offense to (at best) one-point possessions.
Luckily, "Lob City" hasn't yet been evicted from the Staples Center. Jordan's still dominating as an alley-oop finisher.
More impressive, though, has been his play at the opposite end of the floor. His work as a rebounder and shot-blocker is impressive, but it's borderline ridiculous when considering he's playing just 24.7 minutes a night.
Jordan has looked like the player new coach Doc Rivers said he could be. The one Rivers told Stephen Bailey of the Los Angeles Times should be next season's Defensive Player of the Year.
Admit it, you smirked when Rivers first said that. But guess who's laughing now?
Victor Oladipo, PG/SG, Orlando Magic
7 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers (at Indiana University): 13.6 PPG, 2.1 APG, 6.3 RPG, .599/.441/.746, 28.9 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 12.3 PPG, 4.8 APG, 6.8 RPG, .439/.188/.667
In a draft class filled with question marks, Orlando Magic rookie Victor Oladipo was the lone certainty.
An explosive athlete, he soared from NBA afterthought to lottery status during his junior season with the Hoosiers. As Oladipo shined in predraft interviews, his stock kept soaring all the way to the No. 2 overall selection.
Don't expect the NBA's love affair with Oladipo to stop any time soon.
The 6'5" combo guard has rolled as both a scorer and distributor. He leads the Magic in both scoring and assists this preseason, and his turnovers (3.0 in 25.3 minutes a night) aren't the disaster they could have been given his dramatic change in responsibility.
Oladipo may never be a top-flight point guard. He might not ever fill that position full-time.
But this much is already certain—he'll produce from wherever he plays.
Evan Turner, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
8 of 8
2012-13 Notable Numbers: 13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 6.3 RPG, .419/.365/.740, 12.1 PER
2013-14 Preseason Production: 19.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, 6.5 RPG, .466/.250/.742
I don't envy Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie.
Forget about the massive rebuilding project he's signed on to oversee, simply deciding the fate of former No. 2 overall selection Evan Turner is not a call I'd like to make.
Heading into the final season of his rookie contract, Turner has yet to have extension talks with the Sixers. Holding those talks now just doesn't make sense. With lackluster career averages (10.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists) and a player efficiency rating well below average (11.9), it's hard to imagine him finding a new deal in the neighborhood of respectability.
As for the Sixers, their financial future is right where it should be for a rebuilding team. With only $15 million in guaranteed contracts tied up for next season, Hinkie can literally build this team from the ground up.
Whether Turner's a part of that plan is yet to be seen. Still just 24 years old, time is on his side to justify his draft position.
Someone has to produce on this undermanned Philly team, and Turner has the ability to be that guy. If his preseason numbers hold up during the regular season, the Sixers will either lose some of that financial freedom by locking him up or risk losing what could have been a vital piece of their rebuild.
There are arguments to be made on both sides of the negotiating table, should these parties ever decide to meet there. Frankly, I'm thrilled to be left out of these talks.
