Concerns for The 2009 Oregon State Beavers: Optimisim vs. Reality

While I continue to flip-flop between the possibility that the Beavers could win up to 10, even 11 games this season; the Lee Corso side of my brain shouts "not so fast my friend!"

I thought it would be productive-at least for myself-to express my orange-goggled views of the team then slap myself back to reality and think on a much less biased level and see what middle ground I may be able to find.

I'm not schizophrenic I swear.

Yes you are.

What will follow are the main concerns surrounding this 2009 Beaver team.

Concern No. 1: The entire secondary is gone.

Realistic View - 2007 saw the Beavers lose their entire front seven.  Much was discussed in the pre-season about the impact this would have on the beginning of the season; which had OSU on the road against conference foe Stanford in week one and then in (not so) Happy Valley to face Penn State in week two.

After being gashed for 449 rushing yards in the first two weeks it was evident that the loss of the bulk up front was a serious hurdle on the path to success for the 2008 squad. 

2009 very well could bring back memories of the 2005 secondary which saw the Beavers give up 50+ points in three games, surrender nearly 300 passing yards per game, and get lit up through the air on the road early and often against Louisville, losing 63-27.

While corner Tim Clark returns as a senior with significant game-time experience, youth could again spell trouble against the run-and-shoot style offenses they will face early against Portland State, UNLV, and Cincinnati.

Not to mention the pass-happy Pac-10.

Optimistic View - Greg Laybourn was the only starter from the 2008 Beaver secondary that was not drafted, yet he was invited to work out with NFL teams. Scary thought, replacing four NFL caliber players.

While you can't beat experience, often times athleticism will allow a player more room for error early on.  This 2009 secondary is one of the most athletic groups OSU has fielded since the 2000 Fiesta Bowl group. 

Tim Clark is a shut down corner and there is a three headed monster in James Dockery, Brandon Hardin, and Patrick Henderson battling for the other corner spot.

Both safeties are upgrades in speed and size. OSU's biggest issue was down field coverage against the slot receiver. Plays which found Laybourn or Afalava chasing from behind, should now feature Mitchell or Tuimaunei on top of the route breaking the pass up.

Athleticism equals turnovers.

Concern No. 2: No depth at running back.

Optimistic View - Now-true sophomore Jacquizz Rodgers has fully healed from his late season shoulder injury and is ready to go come fall-ball. His brother James is in the same boat after undergoing surgery to repair a broken collar bone.

The two combined to rush for over 1,600 yards and hit pay-dirt 16 times. With a year under his belt, Jacquizz is poised to improve on his 1,253 yard mark, put up in only 9 full games in '08.

Jovan Stevenson has tremendous hands out of the backfield and his quicks in open space makes him a nightmare to bring down with one body.  The balance of Jacquizz up the middle, James on the fly sweep, and Stevenson out of the backfield on swing routes and screens could make OSU a three headed monster, oozing with athleticism.

Realistic View - Jacquizz and James both return from shoulder injuries, the main point of impact for ball carriers.  Remaining healthy is a concern due to back-up Ryan McCants just having had surgery to repair an injured ACL.

Jovan Stevenson looks to be the back up until McCants can prove he is healthy and ready to go.  Stevenson, the 5'11" 184 pound true freshman has no game time experience either.

If Jacquizz goes down, the Beavers can not rely solely on James Rodgers and the fly sweep.  Ryan McCants has yet to play up to his potential with his 6'2" 230 pound frame, and now with a serious knee injury, it's an awful lot of pressure for Stevenson to carry this team if McCants can't go and Jacquizz gets bit by the injury bug again.

Concern No. 3:  Lack of O-Line Depth/Experience.

Realistic View - Front runner for the second starting tackle spot, Timi Oshinowo, went down in the spring game with a torn ACL. After undergoing surgery it is believed he will not be game ready until the second week into Conference play.

Depth is scarce for Coach Cavanaugh, and it's not just the depth that raises red flags, it's the youth of the group.  The group in it's entirety has six upperclassmen and only one Senior (starting guard Gregg Peat). The remainder of the group consists of four sophomores, three redshirt freshmen, and seven true freshmen.

While Mike Remmers, Gregg Peat, Alex Linnenkohl, and Ryan Pohl are quality starters, there is still a starting tackle spot to be filled and if one goes down, the run game could struggle. 

If the run game struggles, the play action won't be as effective as Coach Riley is accustomed to and as a whole the offense will struggle to move the ball with any consistency.

Optimistic View - Guard Gregg Peat, center Alex Linnenkohl, guard Ryan Pohl, and tackle Mike Remmers all have quality game time experience.  Linnenkohl and Peat starting all 13 games last season.

Remmers-as many may remember from the comment made by Jesse Palmer during the victory over No. 1 USC "Freshman tackle Mike Remmers is playing out of his MIND!" -started the entire year (seven games) until senior Tavita Thompson returned from an NCAA suspension.

Remmers will play whichever blind side tackle spot depending on which QB starts.  Canfield the lefty or Moevao the righty. So the tackle to find is the "less important" tackle.

This group has worked together for a couple years and now is entering their second year as starters together.  With what they produced in the run game last year and the coaching that Coach Cav provides, it could be a very promising year on the ground for the Beavers.

Concern No. 4: Stroughter and Morales are now gone at WR.

Optimistic View - James Rodgers stepped his game up last season as a route runner and is a very viable target now for the Beavers through the air. Rodgers caught 51 passes for 607 yards and four scores in '08 and is the leading returner at the receiver position.

Starting his true freshman year Darrell Catchings had high hopes for the future, he caught 33 passes for 386 yards and a TD.  While hopes are still high Catchings has since been battling with diabetes over the past year and has finally leveled out his diet and learned to live with the disease.

Catchings torched the black shirts in the spring scrimmages and looks faster and better than ever. Casey Kjos is out of the Shane Morales mold (great hands and awareness) and has been in the program four years.

Damola Adeniji goes 6'3" 215 and can go up and get the ball.  With the height of Adeniji (6'3"), Kjos (6'2"), and RSFr. Jordan Bishop (6'3" who has impressed the coaching staff and fans alike) OSU has height at the receiver position that they've never had before.

Add that with the speed of James Rodgers, incoming JuCo. transfer Reggie Dunn, and the before mentioned Bishop and OSU can stretch you deep with speed and/or go up high in the red-zone.

Realistic View - The Beavers lose 1,783 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns with the departure of Stroughter (now with Tampa Bay) and Morales (now with Arizona).

Not only do they lose production, but Stroughter was lightning in a bottle on special teams, dazzling with his punt returns and big play potential.  That and Stroughter provided a tremendous amount of leadership and grit for the 2008 team.

Every superstar must have a constant working beside him and Shane Morales was a model of consistency.  The sure-handed senior wide-out came out of nowhere to, at one point, lead the Beavers in receptions and yards. 

Morales finished the season with 743 yards and eight touch downs - which lead the team.

While James Rodgers and Darrell Catchings are familiar faces, no matter how you cut it, two solid and dependable go-to guys have left your program and taken a serious amount of production and leadership with them.

Concern No 5 - Butler/Norris gone, no pass rush from D-Ends.

Realistic View - Norris and Butler were pass rush specialists who, as seniors, blossomed into every down players for OSU in 2008.  The duo often helped each other up in the backfield after meeting and sandwiching opposing quarterbacks.

The two combined for 122 tackles, 22 sacks, and totaled 213 yards lost. Production like that is tough to lose and the motors with which they played with were seemingly never-ending.

Losing both defensive ends with such high character and football smarts is tough for any team to overcome. 

Optimistic View - Norris and Butler replaced VanOrsow and Smith, now Ben Terry and Kevin Frahm replace Norris and Butler. It's a cycle that coach Riley has had going for a good 4-5 years now.

Steven Paea, second year DT for the Beavers is a monster inside and should occupy a center and guard on nearly every play.  The added attention needed inside should create one-on-one match ups on the end and with Terry's athleticism and Frahm's brute strength I don't see why production can't be on par with their predecessors.

I think the OSU D-Line will be the most underrated group on this entire team in 2009.

So as we enter fall camp and OSU Football-version 2009, the questions will continue to be asked and answers-biased or not-will be given.

The ceiling for this OSU team I think is 11-1, road games versus Oregon, USC, and Cal will be virtually impossible to sweep.  That of course would place them in some sort of BCS Bowl.

Worst case scenario, OSU could lose to Cincinatti, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, and USC.  Cinci being the only home game, but early in the season where OSU normally doesn't do all that well.  Worst case finish should be 7-5.

It's hard to bet against the Beavers and say they won't be bowling in 2009.

No it's not.