Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Bucs: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are riding a 1-9 streak and the Philadelphia Eagles are on a 3-14 streak. What should oddsmakers do in this situation? Simple—call it a toss-up and set the line as even odds.

That’s the situation as 0-4 Tampa Bay hosts erratic Philly in Week 6.

Point spread: Buccaneers opened as one-point favorites, but the line settled in mid-week as a PK. The total was 45.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 15.7-14.2 Eagles

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philly may have to go back to Nick Foles at quarterback, as Michael Vick is dealing with a bad hamstring, but that might not be a bad thing considering that Foles just went 16-for-25 with a couple of TD passes in the Eagles' 36-21 win over the Giants on Sunday.

Also, Chip Kelly's high-pressure offensive attack ranks second overall in the league and leads the NFL in rushing at 187 yards per game. The Eagles face a Bucs team that has lost five straight at home.

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Tampa Bay, while 0-4 straight up (SU) and 1-3 against the spread (ATS), could be 3-1. The Bucs lost on a last-second field goal to the Jets, on a last-second field goal to the Saints and lost again last week on a field goal with a minute-and-a-half remaining against the Cardinals. Tampa has been nearly abysmal on offense and just ditched quarterback Josh Freeman in favor of rookie Mike Glennon.

Defensively, though, the Bucs have been respectable, ranking in the top dozen in several key categories. They also come off a bye week, which has been a profitable situation in recent years (6-1 ATS over the past seven seasons).

Smart Pick

The OddsShark NFL computer is predicting Philly to win a close, low-scoring game, which is what Tampa Bay has been playing so far. But while the Eagles offense is clicking, Philly still is not immune to the natural bio-rhythms of week-to-week play in the NFL. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, might be due to win one of those close games.

It's always risky going with a rookie QB, but the Bucs seem like a better play, especially with an extra week to prepare.

Trends:

• Bucs 6-1 ATS past seven seasons after a bye week
• Bucs lost five straight at home, all UNDERs

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow it on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.