AFC East Title Race Will Go Down to the Wire

Whoever the NFL hires to design 'Division Champions' banners for the eight title holders thought they would have it easy for at least one of them in 2008.

The New England Patriots were coming off a season in which they became the first team to finish 16-0 in the regular season, breaking various league and individual records in the process and, stunningly, won the AFC East by a whopping nine games. 

With that in mind, and the fact that the Patriots had won six of the previous seven Eastern division titles, (insert banner designer here) probably got to work on New England's championship prize in late-August to save time for a busy December.

Okay, so that probably didn't happen and its a good thing because the early effort would have turned out to be a colossal waste of time. 

New England lost its franchise player, quarterback Tom Brady, in the first half of the season's first game, quickly transforming the AFC East from a one horse trot to a wide open race. 

It took all 17 weeks to decide as the division went unclaimed until the Miami Dolphins, yes, the previously 1-15 Miami Dolphins, defeated Brett Favre's New York Jets on the final Sunday to finish 11-5, capturing their first division title since 2000. 

How competitive was the East last year? The Buffalo Bills were the only team of the four that had no mathematical chance of winning it going into Week 17. That's a huge difference from the previous year when the Patriots had clinched the division the week before Thanksgiving.

Even with Brady's return to the Patriots, don't be surprised if the race is just as tight in 2009. During the offseason, the Jets brought in the mastermind of the dominant Baltimore Ravens defense, Rex Ryan, to be their head coach and two of the top defensive players on the market, cornerback Lito Sheppard and linebacker Bart Scott, followed him.

The Bills made a big splash by signing wide receiver Terrell Owens, while the Dolphins mostly stood pat by signing their own major free agents, safety Yeremiah Bell and linebacker Channing Crowder, and added new young talent through the draft to fill gaping holes at wide receiver and defensive back.

Considering these upgrades, one could argue that the AFC East is the NFL's best division from top to bottom.

All four teams have playoff-quality talent, but because they are scheduled to play teams from the AFC and NFC South—two of the league's most competitive divisions—this season, it is likely that only the division champion will qualify for the postseason.

So how does this affect the Bills chances? If the title is won in the final week or two as I believe it will be, the two unlike opponents on each team's schedule may decide the winner.

Advantage Buffalo. The Bills finished in last place in the East in 2008 meaning they will face the last place teams from the AFC North and West, which works out to be the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs. 

That's a stark contrast to the Dolphins who will face the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers, both of whom won their divisions last season. 

If the Bills can win a few games that they likely won't be predicted to win, such as at Tennessee or at Carolina, the games against Kansas City and Cleveland could put them in great position to steal the division title. 

But with Brady back, head coach Bill Belichick will find a way to return the Patriots to the forefront. If healthy, they still field the most talented squad, not just in the division, but maybe in the entire NFL.

The offense is nearly identical to the one that scored an NFL-record 589 points in that magical 2007 campaign with Brady, wide receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and running backs Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris all still around. To it they added veteran wide-out Joey Galloway and former All-Pro running back Fred Taylor.

Yes the defense is old, but when was the last time you went into the season believing otherwise?

They still find ways to get it done and if Brady can play to the level he was at before he got injured, they might be all right giving up 24 points a game. I'm guessing Belichick would prefer a lower number and will keep his defense in the upper echelon of the league, where it has been for much of the past decade.

As for the three contenders, a lack of production at key positions will hold them back from leapfrogging New England.

The Bills are too weak up front on the offensive and defensive lines and no team can overcome that to win its division. 

The Dolphins lack consistent playmakers at the wide receiver position, thus they likely won't score enough points to compete for a second straight division title.

The Jets are going to start a rookie quarterback, Matt Sanchez, who they made the fifth overall pick in last month's draft. They will be dealing with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, a combination that rarely produces a division championship.

Spring predictions count for nothing when the games begin in the fall. The only championship won in May is on paper and, for now, the Patriots are the paper league champions.  

I could be wrong, as many- actually every- "expert" was in picking them last season. But I am sure of this: the team that earns the 2009 AFC East Division Champions banner at the end of the real season will have survived a season-long dogfight, one that we became so accustomed to seeing from this division in years past.