PGA Championship 2013 Odds: How Top 5 Favorites Will Fare at Oak Hill

Once again, Tiger Woods enters a major as a giant favorite. At 7-2, according to Bovada, his odds are three times lower than Phil Mickelson, who has the second-lowest odds in this field. 

Given Woods' history of major dominance and his stellar recent play, which includes winning last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational by seven strokes, the odds are clearly justified. However, there are plenty of reasons to keep looking further down the list for other contenders. 

After all, Woods hasn't won a major in over five years, and the last time the PGA Championship was played at the Oakhill Country Club (2003), Woods finished at 12 over and in 39th place.

Obviously, this tournament is no slam dunk for Woods. So, while checking in on Woods' chances to hoist his record-tying fifth Wanamaker, I will offer up the chances of the four golfers the odds tell us have the best shot of beating him. 

Odds according to Bovada on Aug. 6. All stats according to PGATour.com. 

Tiger Woods, 7-2

Woods enters this tournament in scintillating form. Most important, for this event, are the improvements he's made in his ball striking. This is most notable off the tee. 

Woods has spent the majority of this year fighting to keep his ball in the fairway off the tee. However, in his last five PGA starts, which takes us back to the Players Championship, Woods has hit at least 62 percent of his fairways in each.

Now, some of this has been due to Woods leaving his driver in the bag more often, but he is also starting to gain confidence in that club.

Last week, Woods finished the tournament sixth in driving distance and 11th in accuracy at 62.5 percent. 

This kind of play off the tee is going to be pivotal with the narrow landing areas at Oakhill: 

In 2003 at this event, Woods hit just 46.43 percent of his fairways. Obviously, he must improve in this area, and he is in position to do just that. 

As with any tournament, Woods will have to sink putts to win, and I believe he will. Woods has struggled with his putting at the close of recent majors. However, his stroke is in good form right now, and he is due to sink some pivotal putts. 

Prediction: 1st 

Phil Mickelson, 14-1

Phil Mickelson has been enjoying a magnificent run. In his last seven PGA starts, he has finished in the top three four times. That notably includes his runner-up finish at the U.S. Open and his win at the British Open.

In his lone start since the British, Mickelson coasted to a 21st at Bridgestone.

Like Woods, performance off the tee will be key for Lefty. He has done a great job at managing his game off the tee in recent events, but his driving accuracy in the British Open was lower than it was for the U.S. Open, and it was even lower last week at Bridgestone.

With the event at Bridgestone calling for a heavier use of the driver, Mickelson hit just 57.1 percent of his fairways. He will need to be able to count on his driver this week, and I don't see it being there for him like he needs. 

He will still have a solid a finish, but he won't be the threat he has been at the last two majors. 

Prediction: 15th

Adam Scott, 16-1

After winning the Masters, Adam Scott's performances understandably dipped a bit. However, he is right on track now. 

Following a 45th at the U.S. Open then a 57th at the AT&T National, Scott rebounded to finish third at the British Open. He was then 14th at Bridgestone last week.

Like the two golfers before him on this list, it is important to look at Scott's performance off the tee. 

He hit just 58.9 percent of his fairways, but he averaged 310.8 yards. He also was solid with the flat iron—posting a .571 mark in strokes gained-putting. 

With this kind of play, Scott will be a factor in yet another major. 

Prediction: 4th

 

Henrik Stenson, 25-1

To those not closely following the tour, Henrik Stenson's inclusion among the favorites must be a surprise. 

Stenson won the Players Championship in 2009, and he appeared poised to win a major at that point. However, injuries slowed the Swede down, and he was largely a forgotten man heading into this year. 

While he doesn't have a win this year, he has been playing great, and he enters this tournament off of runner-up finishes in consecutive starts. He wound up in second behind Mickelson at the British and then second last week to Woods at Bridgestone. 

Stenson is a wonderful ball striker, and that will serve him well in this tournament. If he gets hot with the flat iron, he could easily take this title. And while I wouldn't be shocked to see him run to victory, I'm not convinced he can keep up his amazing recent consistency. 

Prediction: 39th

Justin Rose, 25-1

Justin Rose's elite ball striking means he must be considered a factor at this event. However, the reigning U.S. Open champ has struggled to regain his form since winning his first major. 

He's only made three PGA starts since his major breakthrough. He was 13th at the Travelers Championship, missed the cut at the British Open and then was 17th last week at Bridgestone. 

While Rose is one of the best players off the tee on tour, he's been struggling in that area recently, and it's getting worse. 

His driving accuracy has slipped in each start since the U.S. Open, and last week it was a paltry 44.6 percent. Rose's sweet swing means he can turn it around at any moment, and it will keep him in respectable position for this tournament. However, I don't see him being a serious contender. 

Prediction: 19th