2009 Indianapolis Colts: Heading Into the Unknown

The 2009 Indianapolis Colts look like a solid football team.  Bill Polian and the front office have been able to find replacements for players who departed as free agents and have continued building solid depth.

However, some vacancies will be filled with rookies and young players who have a lot to prove before Colts fans can confidently say that the rebuilding process is complete.

1) Wide Receiver

While there are plenty of reasons for Colts fans to be excited about the young players who are competing for the third-receiver position, none of those players have proven anything in the NFL. 

Roy Hall has been in the league for two years but has yet to be healthy enough during the regular season to get significant reps as a wideout.

Sure, the Colts front office has suggested that Hall's development as a wide receiver is encouraging but until he actually performs in a regular season game, fans won't know if he is a reliable option for Manning.

Pierre Garcon was a major small-school performer in college but has not had the opportunity to show his value as a NFL wide receiver. Polian has suggested that Garcon will make the biggest leap among second year players in 2009. 

Still, until he can develop chemistry with Manning and show that he can gain separation against NFL level defenders, fans will be unsure about Garcon's ability to fill the slot position on Sundays.

Samuel Giguere is an intriguing player who came from Canadian college football, and is built like a small linebacker. However, fans still don't know how much Giguere developed while spending the entire year on the Colts practice squad. He would seem to have potential as a gunner but the Colts are looking for ability at wide receiver.

Austin Collie was a special college performer, leading the NCAA in receiving yards last year. Collie is also older than a typical rookie. Still, it is rare for rookie receivers to play a significant role in the offense. 

It is possible that Collie's maturity could help make him an exception to that rule but until he takes the field and makes an NFL reception, fans can only speculate.

Consequently, while it is assumed that Anthony Gonzalez will move over and take the spot vacated by Marvin Harrison, no other wide receiver on the roster has proven the ability to produce in the NFL. 

If none of the young receivers are able to develop into a reliable target for Manning, it is likely that Dallas Clark will see a lot more time in the slot and the Colts passing attack may suffer.

2) Running Back

Running back will be an interesting position for the Colts. If Joseph Addai can stay healthy, the Colts running game should be much stronger in 2009. However, if Addai continues to be limited by injuries, only unproven second year players will back-up Donald Brown.

Mike Hart is the assumed favorite for the third spot on the depth chart.  However, Hart is coming off of knee surgery for an ACL tear, which he suffered against Baltimore last year.  The general rule for this type of injury is that it will take a full year for the knee to return to normal. 

There is nothing "normal" about Hart but if the knee limits him, the Colts could be in real trouble.

Chad Simpson took over the third spot on the depth chart in 2008 when Hart went down but did not have great success running the ball.

While no back had great success for the Colts last year, Simpson has not shown an ability to be effective against NFL defenses and would be a big question-mark should he be consistently called upon to carry the ball in 2009.

Lance Ball closed out the Colts 2008 regular season with a strong performance against the Tennessee Titans. Fans were encouraged by the performance but aware that the Titans second-string defense was on the field for most of the game. 

At 5'9", 220 pounds, Ball has more size than the other options at running back. Some fans hope Ball can prove to fill the short-yardage role the Colts have been without for some time. Whether he can actually succeed in this role has yet to be seen.

Accordingly, two of the Colts top three backs have injury concerns entering the season.  The two players below them are unproven commodities against NFL defenses. If injuries limit Addai and Hart, and Brown struggles in any way, the Colts could continue to have difficulty running the ball.

3) Defensive Tackle

While Colts fans have plenty of reasons to be excited about the defensive tackle position, behind Ed Johnson there is little proven depth. All signs suggest that a strong rotation will emerge but claiming strength on the inside of the defensive line out of the gate is premature. 

Should the team move to more size in the defensive tackle rotation, Eric Foster and/or Keyunta Dawson may be moved to new positions or off of the team.

If Fili Moala, Terrance Taylor, Adrian Grady, and Pat Kuntz struggle learning the Colts defense over the offseason, the team may have to rely on Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir to play key roles. 

Johnson showed ability in his first year but Muir never played a significant role last year, despite the team's struggles to stop the run. It is a boom or bust scenario for the Colts interior defensive line, and much depends on the ability of the coaches to get the young players up to speed quickly.

4) Punter

It would be nice to think that the loss of Hunter Smith is nothing to worry about.  It would also be nice to think that Pat McAfee or Tim Masthay will easily make the transition to the NFL and serve to be as accurate and reliable as Hunter Smith.

However, neither player has experience punting in the NFL. 

In a year when the Colts are getting a special teams makeover, it will not have the luxury of a known commodity punting the ball away. If either McAfee or Masthay should falter or give up field position with their unproven legs, it will be more difficult for the Colts to succeed.

5) Holder

Hunter Smith filled the dual-role of punter and holder. Now that he is gone, who will hold on kicks?  Smith did an exceptional job as a holder and was reliable for Adam Vinatieri.  This year a proven holder is missing.

6) Kick Returner

Despite trying a number of players at kick returner in 2008, no player established himself as the team's return man. Courtney Roby, Justin Forsett, Pierre Garcon and Chad Simpson all had opportunities to distinguish themselves as the top kick returner.  All failed to do so. 

Roby and Forsett are no longer on the team and Garcon looks to be used more as a receiver, leaving only T.J. Rushing and Chad Simpson with proven return ability.

Austin Collie did well returning kicks in college but does not display the timed speed that is best suited for kick return responsibilities. Who emerges as the kick returner is anyone's guess.

7) Punt Returner

The team's punt returner, and arguably its best backup corner back, Keiwan Ratliff left the team during free agency (signed with the Steelers). Only T.J. Rushing has proven punt return ability and his spot on the 2009 roster is uncertain. 

If the team does not use a roster spot specifically for a returner, which is possible, the player filling this role will be doing so for the first time in the NFL.

8)  Coaching Changes

There are a lot of reasons to be confident that the new coaching staff will be successful in its first year.  However, three of the five likely coaching changes will put assistant or positional coaches into roles they have not filled at any time in their careers. 

Accordingly, it is a bit premature to simply write the new names into the coaching vacancies and have supreme confidence that all will go off without a hitch. 

It is reasonable to believe that it takes a person some time to get comfortable at a new job. If the Colts new coaches take too long getting comfortable or fail to come out of the gate hitting on all cylinders, it could impact the team's ability to succeed in 2009.

It goes without saying, the 2009 Colts are not the same team as last year.  There will be a lot of new faces filling important roles, and potentially some new philosophies and policies guiding the team into a new season. 

While there are plenty of reasons to be confident that the Colts will continue having a great deal of success, Colts fans should prepare themselves to head into the unknown. 

It is okay to have faith that the coaches and players will do the right things to prepare in the offseason but keep in mind that the task will not be easy; and that it will be the first test for a new coaching regime in Indianapolis.