Biggest Red Flag of Every Top-Tier 2013 NBA Free Agent Remaining
Not even top-tier NBA free agents are devoid of red flags. Every player has a flaw, and it's up to the 30 franchises to weigh the positives and negatives before pulling the trigger on a deal.
Speaking of pulling the trigger, some elite players can't shoot. Others can't play defense or have mental hindrances that hold them back in one way or another.
With Chris Paul and David West returning to the Los Angeles Clippers and Indiana Pacers, respectively, and Al Jefferson reportedly agreeing to sign with the Charlotte Bobcats over the first few days of the free-agency period, eight free agents remain in the top tier. I previously had Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague in this group, but a bit of statistical analysis has convinced me to drop him down to the next level.
Let's take a look at the red flags.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
8. Nikola Pekovic: Lack of Finesse Game
1 of 8Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Age: 27
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 16.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 blocks, 0.7 steals
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Nikola Pekovic has done a masterful job corralling his aggressive instincts since being hampered by foul trouble in his rookie season . He's cut back his personal fouls per 36 minutes from a jaw-dropping 7.3 as a rookie to just 2.6 during his third season in the NBA.
However, Pekovic still plays with a bull-in-a-china-shop mentality, even if he's better than ever at keeping his game under control. That limits the number of finesse moves he can pull off, and he constantly keeps his head down, thereby limiting his options as a passer.
His lack of finesse is revealed in the passing game.
Pek averaged a career-high...wait for it...0.9 assists per game during the 2012-13 season. According to Hoopdata.com, there were only two centers who played more than 25 minutes per game last season and recorded fewer assists per contest than Pekovic
The Montenegrin center is neither a willing nor capable passer.
7. Monta Ellis: Can't Shoot but Thinks He Can
2 of 8Last Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 27
Position: SG
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 19.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.4 blocks, 2.1 steals
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
It's tough to find players in the NBA who have more irrational confidence in their shooting abilities than Monta Ellis. The shooting guard plays like he has no conscience, even when shot after shot from the outside draw all iron.
Take a look at his shooting chart from the 2012-13 season, courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com. It's not for the faint of heart.
Ellis shot only 29 percent from behind the three-point arc this past season.
That did not deter him from firing away early and often though. He took 328 three-point shots over the course of the 82-game season.
The 2-guard also took 353 shots from 16 to 23 feet, and he wasn't all that much better. He broke past 30 percent this time, hitting 36.8 percent of those shots.
Until he learns how to shoot with consistency from the outside, Ellis has to stick to his strengths more. He hit only 33.3 percent of his jumpers throughout the 2012-13 campaign, which was easily his least effective type of shot.
6. Brandon Jennings: Overall Shooting
3 of 8Last Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 23
Position: PG
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 17.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.1 blocks, 1.6 steals
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Missing shots seemed to be a common theme for the Milwaukee Bucks during the 2012-13 season, one that ended with a humiliating sweep at the hands of the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs.
Monta Ellis was one culprit, but Brandon Jennings was certainly another.
The 40-percent mark for field-goal percentage is a minimum benchmark for every NBA player, one that Jennings seems to be in constant contact with. The southpaw guard actually shoots fairly effectively from downtown, but he struggles from the rest of the half-court.
Jennings checked in at the conclusion of the season with a 39.9 shooting percentage from the field, making it three of four seasons in which he's failed to break 40.
Until he can develop an elite jumper or learn how to finish at the basket (49.2 percent shooting on layups last season), he's not going to be a valuable scorer.
5. Paul Millsap: Undersized at Power Forward
4 of 8Last Team: Utah Jazz
Age: 28
Position: PF
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 14.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 blocks, 1.3 steals
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Paul Millsap is a power forward by trade, but he's an undersized one by NBA standards. He compensates for a lack of height with lanky arms and a never-ending supply of energy.
He's done that thus far, but the Utah Jazz have also made his life easy by deploying him next to a top-tier center named Al Jefferson. They've also experimented with Millsap at small forward, but that hasn't worked so well.
According to 82games.com, Millsap posted a PER of 20.5 while playing power forward and allowed opposing 4s to put up a 17.4 against him. Things didn't work out so smoothly when he shifted over to small forward, earning an offensive PER of 20.3 and allowing a 19.3.
Until Millsap develops an increasingly consistent jumper and gets used to playing more perimeter defense, he's locked in as an undersized power forward. Based on the number of 4s in that category who have flamed out over the years, he needs to land in the right situation now that he's a free agent.
4. Andre Iguodala: Age/Athleticism Combination
5 of 8Last Team: Denver Nuggets
Age: 29
Position: SG/SF
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 13.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.7 blocks, 1.7 steals
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Andre Iguodala was set to make over $16 million during the 2013-14 season while playing for a team that fit his skill set and was guaranteed to be competitive. Yet he opted out of his deal, presumably for two reasons.
He wanted to cash in on a long-term deal before the stacked free-agent class of 2014, and he needed to secure more money before turning 30 and scaring teams away from giving him a contract extension.
Iggy's game is centered around his remarkable athleticism, which means that he could decline rather precipitously when that starts slipping away. He defends maniacally, recovering quickly and displaying tremendous lateral quickness, and he loves attacking the basket in both half-court sets and transition.
If you sapped Iguodala's athleticism, he'd be a much more limited player, and the versatility that makes him so valuable would decline significantly.
He's already 29, so it might not be too long before the decline begins.
3. Josh Smith: Jump Shot
6 of 8Last Team: Atlanta Hawks
Age: 27
Position: PF/SF
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 17.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.2 steals
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
If Josh Smith was forced to only attack the basket, post up or pass the ball on every single possession, he'd be one of the 10 best players in the NBA. He has that much physical and defensive talent.
J-Smoove believes he can still hit the outside shot, no matter how many times Philips Arena showers him with groans when he clanks another jumper off the back of the rim.
Assuming your stomach has recovered from viewing Monta Ellis' shot chart, take a look at Josh Smith's, once more courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
At least most of Ellis' missed shots fall behind the three-point arc, rather than the dreaded area of long two-point jump shots. The long two-pointer is the worst shot in basketball, and yet it's the one that Smith likes the most.
It's unacceptable for a player as physically talented as Smith to shoot over 300 times from 16 to 23 feet over the course of a single season, especially when he makes only 32.9 percent of the attempts.
2. Andrew Bynum: Knees
7 of 8Last Team: Philadelphia 76ers?
Age: 25
Position: C
2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 18.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.5 steals
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Does this one really need much explanation?
There are a few giveaways in the above player description that Andrew Bynum is surrounded by red flags.
Look at the question mark after "Philadelphia 76ers." That would be because although he was associated with the team, he never played a single game for the franchise before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
Bynum was forced to sit out all of last season due to knee issues, which is why his 2011-12 per-game stats were listed.
The picture of him in a suit was used because there are no recent images of Bynum wearing an NBA jersey.
Bynum is an incredible talent, but we have no idea whether his knees will (A) allow him to regain his old form or (B) even let him play again.
1. Dwight Howard: Loyalty/Immaturity
8 of 8Last Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 27
Position: C
2012-13 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 12.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.4 blocks, 1.1 steals
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Injuries are a red flag for Dwight Howard, but the bigger concern is that which stems from the space between his ears.
Over the last few seasons, Dwight has transitioned from a fan favorite with an omnipresent grin to a whining superstar who needs to get what he wants at each step of the process. He's driven out multiple coaches in just two seasons, and he's had an incredibly difficult time making up his mind during each of the past two offseasons.
Is there such a thing as a guarantee of loyalty with the artist once known as Superman?
Would it surprise anyone if D12 chose to sign a one-year contract during every offseason for the rest of his career, solely for the purpose of remaining the center of attention each and every summer (h/t Bleacher Report NBA Editor Joel Cordes for the idea)?
No one really knows what he wants, and that includes Howard. If he can't figure it out, how can he focus on being as dominant as possible on the basketball court?
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