Projecting Rory McIlroy's Day 1 Score at 2013 US Open
Rory McIlroy comes to Merion Golf Club after a lackluster performance at the Memorial Tournament, but he will try to put that behind him as he attempts to win the second U.S. Open title of his career.
At the Memorial Tournament, McIlroy was off his game. He had finished in the top 10 in the two previous events he had entered, but he shot an opening-round 78, putting him in poor position to make the cut. While Rory did get to stay for the weekend, he finished in a tie for 57th at six over.
That isn’t the Rory we know, and it’ll be interesting to see how he comes out on Thursday. He’ll be teeing off at 1:14 p.m. ET with two of the other top golfers in the world, Tiger Woods and Adam Scott. The grouping is sure to get the most attention through the first two rounds.
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Rory had played relatively well this season up until Memorial. He’s yet to win a tournament in 2013 but has five top-25 finishes and has yet to be cut. Here are a few stats that sum up how McIlroy has played this year to this point:
| Par 3 | 3.30 | 13.79% | +4 | 22nd |
| Par 4 | 4.01 | 19.18% | +4 | 14th |
| Par 5 | 4.68 | 42.98% | -37 | 150th |
As you can see, McIlroy hasn’t been playing well on par-threes or par-fours. You could also say that he’s been very average. In order to win the U.S. Open, he’s going to need to be better than average. He’s going to need to continue playing well on par-fives and have a couple of birdies on par-threes and par-fours.
The conditions aren’t going to be great, with Merion experiencing a lot of rain, and hitting the green is going to be essential, writes Gray Michoces of USA Today. That bodes well for McIlroy, as he has the fourth-best GIR percentage on the PGA Tour this year. If he keeps it up, he should be in good shape.
McIlroy told Reuters (via Yahoo! Sports) that the course conditions may be in his favor:
"“There might be a few similarities to the way Congressional played to the way this week’s going to play,” said McIlroy.
“It was soft then and it’s obviously going to be soft again this week.”
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When McIlroy talks about Congressional, he’s referring to the site of the 2011 U.S. Open, where he was victorious by eight strokes, finishing at 16 under. He’ll look to replicate his past U.S. Open success this week.
In the opening round this season, McIlroy has averaged around 71 strokes. If McIlroy shoots a 71, that’ll put him at one over after Day 1. But that sample size does have a big outlier—his 78 at the Memorial. Without that, it takes about a stroke off his game, which would put him at even par through the first round.
McIlroy is coming off a bad week at the Memorial and was cut at the U.S. Open a year ago at Olympic Club. There’s clearly a burden he would like to get off his shoulders this week. With a good start on Thursday, that’s more than possible.
So, how will McIlroy come out, playing alongside the other two top golfers in the world? I’m assuming he’ll shoot even par through the first nine holes and then play a little better on the back nine. Overall, he’ll finish two under on the day, which will put him within reach of the leaders after the first Day 1 at Merion.
Day 1 Projection: Four birdies, two bogeys and a round of two-under 68
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