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8 Players Who Need to Be Sharper Than Ever in the NBA Finals

Kelly ScalettaJun 6, 2013

In the NBA Finals the competition gets fiercer than ever, and it becomes impossible for one player to single-handedly win four out of seven games. The other team, indicated by the fact that they’ve gotten there too, can stop just one man. That’s why each of the players on this list needs to be sharper than ever to give his team a chance to win.

Some of these players need to be sharper than they’ve ever been.

From the outset, let me say that Tim Duncan is not on this list purposefully. He will be a huge factor in what the Spurs need to do, but he is neither going to—nor does he need to—have his best series ever. Nor is he going to need to step up beyond what he has been doing all postseason. It’s out of respect, not disrespect, that he isn’t on this list. 

8. San Antonio: Tiago Splitter

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Such a big part of the reason for the Indiana Pacers' success against the Miami Heat had to do with their actual bigs, David West and Roy Hibbert. Many analysts proffered that Gregg Popovich should be taking notes (as though he didn’t already know Miami plays small).

But the point remains valid. For the Spurs to beat the Heat, they are going to need some big minutes from Tiago Splitter. According to 82games.com, when Splitter was on the court this year the Spurs defensive rating (points given up per 100 possessions) was 99.2. When he was on the bench, it was 105.5. That’s a difference of 6.3 points. The Spurs will need that defensive impact.

Another point worth mentioning is about his free-throw shooting. I used to joke that his last name was Splitter because he was guaranteed to split his free throws. Recall last year’s “hack-a-Splitter” strategy employed by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Splitter has improved his free-throw shooting, though, boosting his average from .543 in 2011 to .691 in 2011 to .730 this season. In the postseason he’s hitting at a .781 clip. For the Spurs to win they’ll want to keep things physical, and that will mean that Splitter will need to hit his freebies. 

7. Miami: Chris Andersen

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Chris Andersen doesn’t just “need” to be sharper than ever. You can argue that through this postseason he “has been” sharper than ever. At least statistically, you can. In fact statistically, you can argue that through the postseason, he’s been as sharp as anyone in the league while he’s been on the court.

Andersen has been one of the biggest midseason minimum pickups ever, in the history of the game. Want to know how much? Not only is he leading the league in win shares per 48 minutes this postseason, according to Basketball-Reference he’s third in all of NBA history!

He’s averaging 16.4 points and 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes, but what’s really bolstering him is an unbelievable .826 field-goal percentage. His Player Efficiency Rating is 28.1. Those numbers are surreal, especially for a guy who was unemployed at the start of the season.

Now granted, this is in limited minutes and with limited usage, so you can’t compare him with a starter who is the first option, but for a man that was picked up midseason to little fanfare, it’s pretty impressive. If the “Birdman” can continue flying this high, the Heat will have a great chance at repeating. 

6. San Antonio: Danny Green

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Danny Green is such a Gregg Popovich project.

He was a second-round pick in 2009 for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who eventually waived him. He then suffered through a long and winding road, going through the Spurs, the KK Union Olimpija and then back with the Spurs, who sent him to the D-League for a while.

Then last year he finally latched on to the Spurs for good, breaking out and becoming a starter while averaging 9.1 points and shooting .436 from deep. He also became a bit of a defensive specialist, taking the tougher backcourt assignment to free up Tony Parker’s energy on the other end of the court.

This year he has done more of the same, raising his scoring to 10.5 points per game. He’s also lifted his true shooting percentage from .579 to .600. When he makes at least three treys in a game, the Spurs are 26-4 this year. They’ll need to him to be hitting his shots—and making things difficult for Dwyane Wade to help the Spurs to the title.

It’s a long road from suffering to championship ring, but he has a chance to complete it. 

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5. Miami: Dwyane Wade

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I will concede that Wade can't be sharper than ever. He needs to be a lot sharper than he has been this postseason, though. If Michael Jordan needed Scottie Pippen, then LeBron James will need Wade to perform at Pippen’s level, which he hasn’t been.

In the table below we see Pippen’s averages in the NBA Finals, along with Wade’s Finals performances in the James era, and his postseason performance this year.

Player

PTS/G

TRB/G

AST/G

TOT      

Pippen Finals Avg

19.0

8.4

5.9

33.3

Wade 2011 Finals

26.5

7.0

5.2

38.7

Wade 2012 Finals

22.6

6.0

5.2

33.8

Wade 2013 PS

14.1

4.9

4.9

23.9

When Wade was "better" than Pippen in 2011, the Heat lost. When he "was" Pippen in 2012 they won. James is the better player and he needs to be Batman to Wade’s Robin, but Wade needs to be Robin, not Alfred. This year he’s been Alfred in the playoffs. If he averages 14, five and five, the Heat will not win this series.

Wade needs to step things up and be better than he’s been all postseason. 

4. San Antonio: Kawhi Leonard

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I freely admit that I’ve got a man-crush on Kawhi Leonard. I have no shame in that. I love the confidence he plays with, as though he’s stating to the world, “I don’t care that I’m not a lottery pick; I should have been.” The numbers bear that out, as he’s second in win shares among players in his draft class.  

But his real talent is on the defensive end, where he’ll be tasked with the role of a lifetime, guarding LeBron James, the best player alive. Leonard’s confidence will be crucial here. He has the ability to at least slow down James, but not stop him altogether.

Leonard has great foot speed and the defensive style to guard James. He likes to defend up close and physical. That bodes well for guarding James. If he can stay in front of James, or at least enough to guide him into Tiago Splitter or Tim Duncan, he can have a major impact on this series on the defensive end.

He should provide some offense, but how well he contains James will be one of the deciding factors in this series. 

3. Miami: Chris Bosh

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Chris Bosh may not like the label of soft, but it's times like the last series against the Indiana Pacers that has some people feeling he’s earned it.

When Bosh is on the court, according NBA.com/STATS (subscription required) opponents get 34.3 percent of their points in the restricted area and shoot 58.1 percent. When he is on the bench they only get 32.5 percent of their points in the restricted area and shoot 56.7 percent.

That’s a 2 percent decline in both aspects when Bosh is on the court, defending the restricted area. That’s more indication that he has earned his “soft” label.

The Heat don’t need him to be a big scorer. In fact, the Heat are 12-3 when he scores 10 points or fewer, compared to 15-7 when he scores 20 points or more. Whether he scores makes little difference in whether the Heat win or lose. Whether he plays strong interior defense very well could, though.

Don’t buy into the hype they need him to be a scorer. They need him to make his shots, but what they need more from him is to be tough in the middle. If Tim Duncan, one of the great big men in the history of the game, owns him, then the Spurs will own this series. 

2. San Antonio: Tony Parker

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If you don’t understand how the San Antonio Spurs work, you won’t understand Tony Parker’s importance on this team. The Spurs' offensive rating is 5.1 points better with Parker on the court for a reason, and that reason has a name—Tony Parker.

First, Parker is really fast. He’s been measured as the fastest player in the NBA. When you have a guy that fast, what really helps is to set up lots and lots of screens for him, which the Spurs love to do.

According to Synergy, they have made 1,064 field goals this year either going to the ball-handler on the pick-and-roll, to the roll man, or off the screen. That’s over 200 more than the Heat’s 858, if you want a frame of reference.

The Spurs love to set screens. They’ll set multiple screens in one possession, and that gives the fastest player in the NBA (maybe) even more time to work with. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a smart player, surrounded by smart players and coached by a brilliant coach.

All those screens and smarts mean that teammates know what to do and where to be. Parker knows when to shoot and when to pass, and whom to pass to. The system is brilliantly designed, but Parker makes this system work at a higher level.

The Spurs' screen-heavy offense against the Heat’s hyper-aggressive, turnover-inducing defense is a fascinating aspect to this series, and who wins could come down to the decisions Parker makes. If he makes the right ones, it will result in points for San Antonio. If he makes the wrong ones, it will result in points for Miami.

He won’t just have to be physically sharp. Mentally, he’ll have to be as acute as he’s ever been. 

1. Miami: LeBron James

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LeBron James is the best player in the world. At this point in his career there’s really not even a valid conversation to be had about that. The only argument left is over who is second best.

The conversation about James is starting to revolve around where he belongs on the list of greatest players in history.

He is already seventh all-time in postseason win shares, tied with Kobe Bryant at 28.3. He’ll likely break that tie in Game 1. He’ll almost certainly be well out in front of Bryant by the end of the series. At that point, the only player ahead of him will be Tim Duncan.

And this is what is on the line for James—not just another title, but his legacy. A title here wouldn’t put him ahead of Duncan or Bryant in terms of overall legacy, but it would move him a lot closer. Certainly if he loses to Duncan’s Spurs again, it would be hard to ever move him over Duncan as a playoff performer.

It’s one thing if a young James couldn’t beat Duncan in his prime, but if James in his prime doesn’t beat an aging Duncan, it will forever count against him. And this Heat team cannot win four times in this series without James at his best.

James has a chance to start having his name taken seriously as one of the 10 greatest players in history. If he has a monster series, then it will be hard to deny he belongs in that company. 

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