NBA Finals 2013: Major Advantages the Spurs Have Over the Heat

The San Antonio Spurs have their work cut out for them against the defending NBA champion Miami Heat.

It seems easy to predict the winner in the 2013 NBA Finals; LeBron James and the Heat should roll to their second straight title. They have one of the most impressive winning streaks in history under their belt, an explosive offense, a suffocating defense and the league’s best player.

However, the Indiana Pacers had some key advantages that allowed them to contend against Miami, and San Antonio has its own strengths. The Heat are obvious favorites, but the Spurs will be competitive for the following reasons.

Balanced Scoring

The Heat have an insane amount of offensive firepower, but a lot of those players have been shooting blanks lately.

Dwayne Wade had a pretty strong Game 7 against the Pacers, but he only posted 10 points in the two preceding games. His postseason field-goal shooting (44.7 percent) has been significantly worse than his regular-season field-goal shooting (52.1 percent). He’s been hobbled with a knee injury, which has made him a shell of his true self.

Chris Bosh scored in single digits in the last four games of the Pacers series. Ray Allen and Shane Battier have been ineffective three-point shooters. The lack of scoring from those four players has made the Heat vulnerable.

The Spurs have five players who have been dangerous on the offensive end: Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green.

If these games turn into shootouts, the Heat haven’t shown the ability recently to score at their usual level. San Antonio is capable of getting points from more players, which also allows them to compensate for one scorer having an off night.

If Wade, Bosh or the outside shooters don’t turn things on, the Spurs have a surprising edge in scoring.

Point Differential

The Spurs are averaging 101.6 points per game in the 2013 postseason, while the Heat are putting up 97.2 points per game. Those numbers support San Antonio’s ability to outscore Miami, but they are part of a more important statistic: point differential.

Both teams are far above anyone else in the postseason in differential; San Antonio’s is positive 10.1 and Miami’s is positive 9.6. The third-best team (the New York Knicks) had a postseason differential of positive 2.7.

What this means is that offense and defense are strengths for both teams. The Pacers were a quality defensive team that the Heat needed seven games to dispatch. The Spurs are allowing almost the exact same points per game as Indiana (91.5 versus 91.6, respectively).

While the differential stats should technically place San Antonio and Miami on even footing, the Heat’s struggles with Indiana mean that the Spurs actually have an advantage here. With a comparable defense to the Pacers and more offensive firepower, San Antonio could give Miami fits.

Why does the advantage go to the Spurs over the Heat here? Again, the Pacers took the Heat to Game 7. The Grizzlies had a point differential closer to the Pacers’ (positive 0.6 to positive 0.2, respectively), but they were swept by San Antonio.

Coaching

Erik Spoelstra is sometimes disparaged by fans as being a subpar coach with an amazing team. That’s probably an unfair assessment for many reasons, but a Washington Post article last year described a few ways that “Spoelstra is succeeding in a can’t-win job.”

Regardless of how good you think Miami’s head coach is, it’s difficult to argue he is better than Gregg Popovich.

The Spurs’ offense is a well-oiled machine of pick-and-rolls, and their defense is one of the best in the league. Popovich is doing it with aging superstars, too.

Popovich is going for his fifth NBA championship with the Spurs. He has been NBA Coach of the Year twice in his career.

When it comes to coaching decisions, you can bet that Popovich won’t make a mistake like Frank Vogel did in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals (shot-blocker Roy Hibbert sat on the bench while LeBron James scored the winning layup). The decisions the Spurs’ coach makes to attempt to contain LeBron will be pivotal.

The importance of coaching in pro basketball is often underrated, but Popovich’s effect should not be ignored. The all-time great is possibly the biggest advantage the Spurs have in this series.

*All unattributed statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.